@wildebees
The digital policy strategist you didn’t know you needed—using terms like 'sovereign data assets' as casually as most would say 'hello'. Also geopolitics, innovation, industrial policy. Location: Den Haag 🇳🇱 From: 🇿🇦
Kind of wild that Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader of a theocracy, is the world's first post-modern head of state: unconfirmed appt, no public appearances or sign of life, in an unknown location with limited communications. Baudrillard would be proud.
A scenario so well-known that there was a computer game about it in 1988.
Gosh that’s useful
Non-IR people may not know that Caitlin wrote the definitive article on how Iran might target shipping through the Strait www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/...
Blumenthal after getting briefed on Iran: "We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here. There's also the specter of active Russian aid to Iran putting in danger American lives ... China also may be assisting Iran"
All ok then, it’s still not “war”.
Bloomberg matches the @theguardian.com reporting from yesterday:
“.. Iran has told regional intermediaries that for a ceasefire, the US must guarantee that neither it nor Israel will strike the country in the future, according to several officials ..”
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...
Microsoft, of all companies, files amicus brief in support of Anthropic
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the US to ease Russia sanctions is building...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-in...
NEWS: The Trump administration confirmed it bombed a girl’s school in Iran.
It's one of the most devastating military errors in decades.
Trump lied about it. Pete Hegseth gutted the office preventing civilian casualties.
175 are dead. Most were kids. Hegseth should be fired.
It's happening.
EGAN-JONES: “.. We hope that our analysis is wrong. However, if we are correct, the longer the combatants are engaged, the worse it will be for all.”
Iran published footage of underground tunnels stocked with naval drones, anti-ship missiles, and sea mines. Reuters reported, citing US officials, that Iran has mined the Strait of Hormuz with dozens of sea mines. #Iran
Crazy video of 20 Tomahawks flying through the Iraqi Kurdish mountains near Sulaymaniyah (filmed by someone standing *above* them), seemingly fired from Navy vessels in the Mediterranean
How the US and UK neglect of naval mine warfare could now cost us dearly in the Strait of Hormuz markurban.substack.com/p/the-hormuz...
Geopolitics in 2026:
China: We are guardians of the global order. We never break the rules
US: Fuck the rules. What are you going to do about it?
EU: Ladies & gentlemen, we'd like to announce a roadmap towards a plan to begin the process of starting to break the rules imminently
A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core:
1 month: 2.6%
3 months: 3.0%
6 months: 2.3%
12 months: 2.5%
Soon we will really need Digital IDs for humans.
"immense violence and eventual civil war" could still have negative implications for normal traffic through the straights, and therefor for the rest of the world. Else, the stakes would be far lower?
Natural gas supply shocks have stagflationary effects in the €zone. A 10% increase in gas prices raises core prices by ~0.5% and reduces economic activity. Gas shocks pass through to core prices more strongly than oil shocks, due to role of gas in European electricity production
JPMorgan marking down loan portfolios of private credit groups
www.ft.com/content/389a...
What did Churchill mean by "the special relationship"?
Why did he vest such hopes in the United Nations?
Why was there such anger in the US press?
I joined @ppfideas.bsky.social to explore Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech, 80 years after it was delivered. Available wherever you get your podcasts
The decline in Chinese #FDI into Europe suggests that most Chinese firms can serve European demand from China as a supply hub. 🇨🇳 🇪🇺
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @james-r-green.bsky.social &
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Read here: buff.ly/JTsL3yP
The overbearing fortress built by the Spanish overlords in Antwerp was hated by locals, and it was torn down with glee, as an exhibition at KMSKA reveals. Its legacy includes its footprint under the museum itself.
WSJ: “.. Maersk has 10 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf and would need at least a week to 10 days to resume normal operations in the event of a cease-fire ..
“.. Brokers say there are more than 100 boxships trapped in the Gulf ..”
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
The US obsession with AGI whilst China deploys AI for actual productivity today. China's got 5x more factory robots because they're solving real problems.
Saw some numbers yesterday, to my surprise, not only is Sora not dying. It's growing.
I’m betting there was a plan, but they likely fired all the people that knew it, hollowed out the departments that have knowledge of the region, and their computer systems were probably wrecked by DOGE so
5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open.
Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.
"When military operations are planned, provision is normally made for a “way out,” in other words, how the war will end, what outcome we seek at the conclusion of the conflict, and how we intend to achieve it."
