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Rodger Payne

@rodgerp

Prof of intern'l relations at U of Louisville. SABR member, Jayhawk hoops fan, film buff, & beer snob. Sabbatical Spring 26: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development (U Utrecht). Pictured: Blue Water Bridge linking Michigan to Ontario.

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18.08.2023
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Latest posts by Rodger Payne @rodgerp

i feel like if i was tasked with not starting a war and bringing back US manufacturing jobs, i could have done a better job than this

12.03.2026 22:36 πŸ‘ 20652 πŸ” 2274 πŸ’¬ 640 πŸ“Œ 135
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(Reuters) - U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran's leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

uk.news.yahoo.com/exclusive-us...

11.03.2026 23:13 πŸ‘ 3046 πŸ” 1101 πŸ’¬ 139 πŸ“Œ 190

This is what all that macho warrior talk means in practice.

12.03.2026 09:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

WASHINGTON (AP) β€” Pentagon tells Congress the first week of the Iran war cost the US $11.3 billion, an AP source says.

11.03.2026 23:41 πŸ‘ 588 πŸ” 213 πŸ’¬ 44 πŸ“Œ 238
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Reaching net zero by 2050 β€˜cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’ Climate change committee finds move to renewable energy would also bring health, economic and security benefits

Achieving the UK’s climate goals costs less than the economic impact of one single oil shock - climate committee finds @suspol.bsky.social @fossiltreaty.bsky.social @greenpeaceuk.bsky.social @oilchange.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

12.03.2026 06:37 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Mr Smith Goes to the Harvard Institute of Politics

12.03.2026 06:00 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Freedom, amirite?

10.03.2026 20:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Both the U.S. administration and the Kremlin are backing Viktor OrbΓ‘n in his bid for reelection in Hungary. (It would be his sixth term.) They are doing it openly and fervently. This says a great deal about our times. And what it says is: very bad news.

10.03.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 78 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

The Discourse has become sort of numb to the fact that the richest guy on earth and owner of a major social media platform just routinely spits out the kind of nakedly white supremacist shit that until a decade ago you rarely saw outside of places like Stormfront.

09.03.2026 04:04 πŸ‘ 3660 πŸ” 907 πŸ’¬ 24 πŸ“Œ 26

Iran's government is more hardline, its people are poorer and more isolated, the region's on fire, and the global economy feels like its about to go into shock

If you want to know why people wanted to avoid war with Iran for so long, you're finding out in real time

09.03.2026 02:24 πŸ‘ 5221 πŸ” 1014 πŸ’¬ 81 πŸ“Œ 30

I’m starting to understand how one might go bankrupt running a casino.

09.03.2026 02:07 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

should be pretty straightforward to work out how big a subsidy this is to oil that we're paying for

08.03.2026 17:50 πŸ‘ 560 πŸ” 110 πŸ’¬ 25 πŸ“Œ 3

This may not be the strong threat he thinks it is.

08.03.2026 15:19 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

This is premature. Go back and recall the "On to Damascus" stories from late spring and early summer 2003. Here's a good example of skepticism at the time:

www.brookings.edu/articles/aft...

07.03.2026 09:56 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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And just like that we’re back to β€œDepartment of Defense”

06.03.2026 15:10 πŸ‘ 13127 πŸ” 2849 πŸ’¬ 1398 πŸ“Œ 399

Maybe Trump would have gained some popularity from killing Khameini if he had bothered to explain ahead of time to the public why he was starting the war. But he didn't.

06.03.2026 21:52 πŸ‘ 72 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

First, a bit odd to be fighting a war where our main ally is Israel and the others are Muslim and imply we are fighting to stay "Christian nations under God" 🀨

05.03.2026 23:11 πŸ‘ 171 πŸ” 34 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 2

This is great TV even if she's now been canceled.

05.03.2026 21:34 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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PAT RYAN: 'Does the US want to be the policeman of the Middle East getting nothing but spending precious lives & trillions.' Rng a bell?

COLBY: Defer to you

R: That was Trump. How about this - 'we simply cannot afford to get enmeshed in a Middle East war'

C: Defer to you

R: That was actually you

05.03.2026 17:27 πŸ‘ 4761 πŸ” 1375 πŸ’¬ 134 πŸ“Œ 81
'We don't see any reason to negotiate:
Araghchi
We have more comments from Iran's top diplomat.
In a live interview with NBC, Abbas Aragchi said Iran is "not asking for a ceasefire".
"We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with the US", he said.
"When we negotiated with them twice, every time, they attacked us in the middle of negotiations."
Araghchi also emphasised that Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, saying "it is the ships and tankers" that have refused to cross the waterway.

'We don't see any reason to negotiate: Araghchi We have more comments from Iran's top diplomat. In a live interview with NBC, Abbas Aragchi said Iran is "not asking for a ceasefire". "We don't see any reason why we should negotiate with the US", he said. "When we negotiated with them twice, every time, they attacked us in the middle of negotiations." Araghchi also emphasised that Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz, saying "it is the ships and tankers" that have refused to cross the waterway.

Iranian Foreign Minister:

β€œWe don’t see any reason to negotiate”

(aje.news/0avpno?updat...)

05.03.2026 18:01 πŸ‘ 290 πŸ” 97 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 14

Per the FY23 NDAA, ODNI is required to submit unclassified reports to Congress and public every 6 months on the status of the Iranian nuclear program. So Gabbard should have released 2 such reports since the March threat assessment. Where are they?
www.congress.gov/bill/117th-c...

05.03.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump Bought Netflix Debt Amid Paramount’s Fight for Warner Bros. New financial disclosures released Wednesday show that the President acquired Netflix bonds as Paramount was trying to pry WBD away from the streaming giant.

What's the right word to describe apparently corrupt trading -- when you are not merely an insider, but actually the regulator?

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-b...

05.03.2026 14:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Trump argues for forever wars

Trump argues for forever wars

Trump is now defending β€œforever” wars.

The linchpin of his populist-style critique of the foreign policy establishment was that it got us into β€œforever” wars.

Trump isn’t just defending his war with Iran. Now he is claiming that he can wage β€œforever” wars β€œvery successfully.”

03.03.2026 15:19 πŸ‘ 268 πŸ” 105 πŸ’¬ 28 πŸ“Œ 12
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FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?

05.03.2026 07:15 πŸ‘ 17229 πŸ” 6010 πŸ’¬ 516 πŸ“Œ 493

This is from the March 2025 Director of National Intelligence Annual Threat Assessment:

"We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear
weapons program he suspended in 2003."

www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...

05.03.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

I’ve spent years, decades, obsessing over the Bush Administration’s Iraq WMD lies, writing about them, debunking them.

I can think of no lie about Iraq WMDs told by Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld et al that comes even close to the enormity and absurdity of this lie from Donald Trump.

05.03.2026 13:07 πŸ‘ 9560 πŸ” 2762 πŸ’¬ 473 πŸ“Œ 112

This is why we cannot have nice things.

05.03.2026 13:47 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

kind of crazy that if you have enough money and don't like what you see in the media, you can just buy up every film studio, news station, and social media app and change it

04.03.2026 02:51 πŸ‘ 16748 πŸ” 2705 πŸ’¬ 268 πŸ“Œ 135

Don't want to nitpick as I'm glad to see someone showing outrage and leadership. However, Tillis only requires "a response," which seems like a low bar and could generate merely symbolic answers. He didn't demand resolution.

04.03.2026 10:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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A family tradition: Working to keep the world safe from nuclear disaster - The World from PRX Matthew Bunn recalls his father George Bunn β€” and their intersecting work to control the spread of nuclear weapons and material.

Just came across this decade-old interview, "The Nuclear Family," about the work my father, George Bunn, and I have both done to reduce nuclear dangers. Has a bunch of description of nuclear dangers and progress in reducing them that's still relevant today. theworld.org/stories/2016...

03.03.2026 19:33 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0