Benedict Guttman-Kenney

Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with le...

They're terminating OPT.

Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US.

6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Consumers Show Signs of Strain Amid Trump's Tariff Rollout Consumer spending has been the bulwark against recession. A pullback could slow the economy.

Via our colleagues @colbylsmith.bsky.social and @christinezhang.bsky.social

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, meaning a sharp enough pullback could cause significant damage.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

CFPB Quietly Kills Rule to Shield Americans From Data Brokers Russell Vought, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has canceled plans to more tightly regulate the sale of Americans’ sensitive personal data.

NEW: “By withdrawing the CFPB’s data broker rulemaking, the Trump administration is ensuring that Americans will continue to be bombarded by scam texts, calls and emails," says Sean Vitka, executive director of Demand Progress.

A scoop:

Fed's Goolsbee relishes running 'Da Bank' in 'Da Pope's' hometown Neither tariffs, nor plunging consumer and business sentiment, nor President Donald Trump's pointed criticism have swayed the Federal Reserve on interest rates - but the pick of the first U.S.-born pope appears to have moved one U.S. central banker.

Fed's Goolsbee relishes running 'Da Bank' in 'Da Pope's' hometown reut.rs/44BVtfj

RATIONALLY pleased with the headline for this chart. www.ft.com/content/3cb1...

Just commented on this. It is a small thing only by contrast with terrible things. Preservation of an independent federal statistical system matters.

WASHINGTON, D.C, (May 2, 2025) — Patricia Harrison, President and CEO of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), issued the following statement today regarding the President’s Executive Order on public media: “CPB is not a federal executive agency subject to the President’s authority. Congress directly authorized and funded CPB to be a private nonprofit corporation wholly independent of the federal government. “In creating CPB, Congress expressly forbade ‘any department, agency, officer, or employee of the United States to exercise any direction, supervision, or control over educational television or radio broadcasting, or over [CPB] or any of its grantees or contractors…’ 47 U.S.C. § 398(c).”

Just a reminder that most of Trump's executive orders are nothing more than press releases.

After he ordered the Corporation for Public Broadcasting to pull funding for NPR and PBS, the CPB responded that it is authorized and funded by Congress and is not subject to the president's authority.

Does collateral affect consumer borrowing? Collier, Ellis, & Keys (2025) examine US disaster loans, which only require collateral for loans above a threshold (e.g., $25K). Collateral requirements reduce credit demand but also default rates. buff.ly/YyyROac

A DOGE Aide Involved in Dismantling Consumer Bureau Owns Stock in Companies That Could Benefit From the Cuts Gavin Kliger helped oversee mass firings at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau while holding stock in companies that experts say likely stand to benefit from dismantling that agency — a potentia...

NEW: A DOGE staffer who is helping carry out the downsizing of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau owns stock in companies that could benefit from the agency’s dismantling, ProPublica has found.

Mark Carney has a mandate to rename the Great Lakes as Eau Canada.

BREAKING: Judge Amy Berman Jackson has *blocked* the dismantling of CFPB. ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show...

Senate Overturns Rule Limiting Bank Overdraft Fees to $5 Lawmakers voted to invalidate a rule adopted last year by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It now moves to the House.

52 out of 53 Senate Republicans just voted to increase overdraft fees.

There is a rule capping bank overdraft fees at $5, saving Americans billions per year. But Senate Republicans voted to overturn it. If House Republicans do the same, the rule is overturned.

Chart from The Economist showing the number of British taxpayers at various incomes, from £75k to £125k. There is a noticeable spike just below £100k

Guess the salary threshold beyond which the marginal tax rate rises to 60%
www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Looking for an exciting research area with many open questions? Now open for enrollment: Data Economy summer school. Online July 28-Aug 1. For more info and signup, visit
sites.google.com/view/data-ec...
#econsky #dataeconomy @isaacbaley

Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Digital Coupons in China (Forthcoming Article) - In 2020, local governments in China began issuing digital coupons to stimulate spending in targeted categories such as restaurants and supermarkets. Using data from a large e-c...

Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Consumer-Financed Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from Digital Coupons in China" by Jing Ding, Lei Jiang, Lucy Msall, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Yay! Delighted to have this project completed ✅ 💳 🥳

I learnt SO much from this experience and am grateful to the editor and reviewers who improved the paper.