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Carla Cebula

@carlaonion

Lead analyst for Scotland at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social Background in understanding social inequalities in education, now focused on poverty and inequality.

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Latest posts by Carla Cebula @carlaonion

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Poverty is deepening.

πŸ”Ž Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning.

People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people.

This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.

27.01.2026 07:53 πŸ‘ 189 πŸ” 172 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 31
A lady standing and a man in a power wheelchair pointing at a large poster saying Scotland demands better. The sky is blue and the sun is shining.

A lady standing and a man in a power wheelchair pointing at a large poster saying Scotland demands better. The sky is blue and the sun is shining.

A group of people of all ages holding placards that say "lack of action = more poverty" and "you're not listening, listen to the people"

A group of people of all ages holding placards that say "lack of action = more poverty" and "you're not listening, listen to the people"

Children holding placards on a cobbled street

Children holding placards on a cobbled street

People marching through a city with placards and banners. The sky is blue and the sun is shining.

People marching through a city with placards and banners. The sky is blue and the sun is shining.

Scotland Demands Better was the breath of solidarity and joy that was needed this weekend! Great to be there with my @jrf-uk.bsky.social colleagues, the End Poverty Scotland Group and our family and friends. Let's keep up the momentum!

27.10.2025 12:53 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ“… Happening tomorrow!

Colleagues @cdbirt.bsky.social @carlaonion.bsky.social @anniemckenzie.bsky.social will join thousands to march across Edinburgh as part of the #ScotlandDemandsBetter rally.

A life free from poverty is possible - and change happens when people stand together and demand it. πŸ‘‡

24.10.2025 10:47 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Around 1 in 4 children in Scotland are in poverty. On top of this writing are four children running, part of a saltire and the logo - JRF, Scottish Election.

Around 1 in 4 children in Scotland are in poverty. On top of this writing are four children running, part of a saltire and the logo - JRF, Scottish Election.

Around 1 in 4 children in Scotland are living in poverty.

Poverty remains far too high, and people are feeling overlooked and ignored by politicians.

The next Scottish Parliament is an opportunity to build a better future for all children in Scotland. πŸ”½ 1/4

06.10.2025 07:38 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
Poverty in Scotland 2025 event on Monday 6th October between 10am and 12pm on zoom or 10am and 2pm at St Paul's and St George's Church, Edinburgh.

Poverty in Scotland 2025 event on Monday 6th October between 10am and 12pm on zoom or 10am and 2pm at St Paul's and St George's Church, Edinburgh.

On 6 Oct, we'll be launching our Poverty in Scotland report

βš™οΈ Building a Scotland where all children have the chance to flourish is an investment both in our children and our futures

Join us for the latest data and our hopes for the next Scottish Parliament: events.zoom.us/ev/Amsdg9QQK...

23.09.2025 11:23 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Careers Do you want to help build a fairer future, free from poverty? Join us and use your skills to make a real difference.

🚨STOP THE BUS🚨

We have a new vacancy in JRF's Scotland Team.

We're looking for a Senior Policy Adviser to join our brilliant team here.

Passionately believe we can deliver a better Scotland free from poverty? Then it could be 🫡

Details πŸ‘‡πŸ•‘ 10/8.

www.jrf.org.uk/careers

24.07.2025 13:38 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Shaymaa Abulebda, an influential writer & scholar from Gaza, should soon be starting a PhD at the University of Edinburgh [part of which is an internship at Comma]. Instead she lives in a tent in al-Mawasi displacement camp in the ruins of southern Gaza.
www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

21.07.2025 11:51 πŸ‘ 38 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 4
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Three policies to reduce child poverty this parliament This briefing sets out which children are at greatest risk of such severe and acute poverty, and what a child poverty strategy must include to address it.

The Prime Minister told senior MPs today he wants to reduce child poverty this parliament

The most cost effective way to do that is to end the two child limit and take action on the benefit cap - actions that also target help to families in deep poverty. Read more ⬇️

www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert...

21.07.2025 22:11 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Welfare bill will now lift 50,000 out of poverty after U-turns, assessment finds Revised bill passed after UK government rowed back on cuts will mean fewer rather than more people in relative poverty in 2030

Actually around 50,000 people will be pulled into poverty by remaining cuts in Bill - based on Govt’s impact assessments. @jrf-uk.bsky.social previously showed how DWP sleight of hand underplayed true poverty impact – same applies to this latest publication. 🧡1/3

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

08.07.2025 11:26 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 6

Govt admits remaining cuts will pull at least 150,000 people into poverty by 2029. But its new impact assessment is again misleading – it could be more like 250,000. (Same reason as why Govt’s previous poverty assessment understated the impact – see: bsky.app/profile/iain...) 2/7

30.06.2025 21:09 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Today Govt confirmed changes it will make to planned cuts to disability benefits. But Govt will still ask MPs to vote for large, arbitrary cuts to disabled people’s incomes that will increase poverty. The Bill should be opposed. Here’s why. 1/7

30.06.2025 21:09 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4
A cartoon showing tenement flats with solar panels on the roofs. Scotland Demands Better. The march for all of us. Edinburgh 25 October 2025. scotland-demands-better.com

A cartoon showing tenement flats with solar panels on the roofs. Scotland Demands Better. The march for all of us. Edinburgh 25 October 2025. scotland-demands-better.com

Better homes. Better services. A thriving natural environment. Join the march for all of us. Edinburgh - 25 Oct. #WeDemandBetter scotland-demands-better.com

19.06.2025 10:30 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2

I want to see non-disabled people shouting about the disability benefit cuts. If you spoke out about trans rights, abortion rights, or migrant rights in recent weeks? Good on you! If you aren’t doing the same for disabled people, ask yourself why.

18.06.2025 19:29 πŸ‘ 573 πŸ” 286 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 17
Save the Children

πŸ“’ Join our team! ⭐️

We're looking for an Impact & Learning Manager to help us better understand, evaluate, and amplify the impact of our work in Scotland.

πŸ“… Closing date: 17 June

Full details ⬇️

jobs.savethechildren.org.uk/jobs/vacancy...

02.06.2025 08:20 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
"Whoever forms the next Scottish Government has the chance to change what it means to grow up in Scotland. To do so, they must meet the Parliament's child poverty targets." - Chris Birt, Associate Director for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

"Whoever forms the next Scottish Government has the chance to change what it means to grow up in Scotland. To do so, they must meet the Parliament's child poverty targets." - Chris Birt, Associate Director for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

240,000 children are in poverty in Scotland.

Every one of them is a reason for all political parties to deliver a better Scotland.

πŸ“ We have published a toolkit to ensure that each party's manifestos is up to the task of meeting the child poverty reduction targets: www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert....

02.06.2025 09:08 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Meeting the moment: Scottish Election 2026 A toolkit to help Scottish political parties shape their thinking and action to meet the 2030/31 child poverty reduction targets ahead of the 2026 Scottish Election.

It is possible for the next Scottish Parliament meet the Child Poverty Reduction Targets with political will and bold action. You can find the toolkit here: www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert...

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A bar chart showing the current child poverty rate, target child poverty rate and the predicted poverty rate in 2030/31 in different scenarios. In the base scenario the predicted poverty rate would be 19%. Only scenario 3 reaches the target at 10%. Scenario 1 reaches 12% and scenario 2 reaches 14%.

A bar chart showing the current child poverty rate, target child poverty rate and the predicted poverty rate in 2030/31 in different scenarios. In the base scenario the predicted poverty rate would be 19%. Only scenario 3 reaches the target at 10%. Scenario 1 reaches 12% and scenario 2 reaches 14%.

Our third combined scenario includes an increase of the SCP, targeted social security policies to families most at risk and supporting parents into more and better work, reducing the child poverty rate to 10% and meeting the targets.

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Socials story A Flourish story by Carla Cebula

While both social security and work policies have significant potential to reduce child poverty on their own, it is only through combining these policies at scale that we can reach the targets.

You can see the details of all the policies we modelled here: public.flourish.studio/story/3139770/

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

We could reduce the number of children in poverty by…

* 60,000 by supporting their parents into work and more work
* 10,000 by increasing take-up of the Scottish Child Payment (SCP) to 100%
* 70,000 by increasing SCP to Β£100

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The toolkit shows how different policy options can reduce child poverty. We model these policies and see how close they take us to the targets.

We don’t suggest one specific policy solution but instead show the scale of the challenge needing to be met.

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

All political parties agreed to the Scottish Child Poverty Reduction targets in 2017.

240,000 children in Scotland are in poverty.

@jrf-uk.bsky.social have launched a toolkit to ensure that the manifestos of these political parties will meet these targets by the end of the next parliament.

02.06.2025 09:40 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Chart showing that in 2018, the UK was among the worst in Europe for child poverty rates, second only the Greece.

Chart showing that in 2018, the UK was among the worst in Europe for child poverty rates, second only the Greece.

The UK is among the worst nations in Europe for child poverty.

In the UK, 11% of 15-year-olds reported they had skipped a meal in 2022 because there wasn't enough money to buy food.

In the Netherlands and Finland, this number was 3%.

31.05.2025 14:29 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
Clip from the times Monday 19 May with headline β€œfewer than 100,000 will find work through Labour jobs scheme”

Clip from the times Monday 19 May with headline β€œfewer than 100,000 will find work through Labour jobs scheme”

The government says its cuts to disability benefits are part of a β€œmoral mission” to get more people working.

But analysis shows fewer than 100,00 are expected to start work by the end of the parliament.

Meanwhile around 3m will have disability & health related benefits cut. 1/4

21.05.2025 06:51 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Comment from our Principal Analyst @rebeccaflorisson.bsky.social on zero-hour contract data from the ONS ⬇️

β€œToday’s data indicates a marked increase in the use of zero-hour contracts in the last year. There are now 1.17 million zero-hour contract workers, the second highest level on record. (1/7)

13.05.2025 11:30 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits.

The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut.Β This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts.

The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."

Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits. The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut.Β This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

13.05.2025 11:56 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4
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β€˜The only thing we can’t do is hear’: the deaf pupil who beat Fife council in court Niamdh Braid, 16, demanded her right to full education – and now hopes her success will inspire more deaf children to aim high

Whilst grown adults in Reform come after Send pupils as β€œvictims”, here’s 16 year old Niamdh Braid winning her right to a British Sign Language interpreter at school. Guess who the real losers are? www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

04.05.2025 11:11 πŸ‘ 181 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
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As immigration dominates the headlines today, including disturbing comments made by those in political positions, such as the suggestion that people seeking safety β€˜should be put in tents’…

We have one message and one message only:

02.05.2025 13:27 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Children being left behind: deep poverty among families in Scotland As we approach the next Scottish election, parties aspiring to government must radically up their game to help the 80,000 children in very deep poverty.

Read the full report which digs into the different drivers of poverty across poverty depths and the families most at risk of experiencing this level of hardship here:
www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert...

28.04.2025 10:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A bar chart showing the distance from the poverty line in pounds for a couple with two primary-aged children by poverty depth. For this family type in very deep poverty they would be Β£1,160 below the poverty line every month.  For this family type in deep but not very deep poverty they would be Β£500 below the poverty line every month.  For this family type in poverty but not deep poverty they would be Β£160 below the poverty line every month.

A bar chart showing the distance from the poverty line in pounds for a couple with two primary-aged children by poverty depth. For this family type in very deep poverty they would be Β£1,160 below the poverty line every month. For this family type in deep but not very deep poverty they would be Β£500 below the poverty line every month. For this family type in poverty but not deep poverty they would be Β£160 below the poverty line every month.

All politicians must understand the scale of the challenge.

For this example family to be lifted over the poverty line, the parents would need to work around 15 extra days a month on the National Living Wage or see an increase in the SCP by around Β£120 per week per child.

28.04.2025 10:13 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
A bar chart showing the distance from the poverty line in pounds for a couple with two primary-aged children by poverty depth. For this family type in very deep poverty they would be Β£1,160 below the poverty line every month.  For this family type in deep but not very deep poverty they would be Β£500 below the poverty line every month.  For this family type in poverty but not deep poverty they would be Β£160 below the poverty line every month.

A bar chart showing the distance from the poverty line in pounds for a couple with two primary-aged children by poverty depth. For this family type in very deep poverty they would be Β£1,160 below the poverty line every month. For this family type in deep but not very deep poverty they would be Β£500 below the poverty line every month. For this family type in poverty but not deep poverty they would be Β£160 below the poverty line every month.

People in households with children who are in very deep poverty have less than half of the income needed to reach the poverty line.

For a household with two children under 12 in very deep poverty they would be, on average, Β£1,160 a month below the 'poverty line'.

28.04.2025 10:13 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0