Talk of the Charts

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Early Billboard Hot 100 Predictions (chart dated February 15th, 2025)

Travis Scott’s “4X4” is currently on pace to depart from the top 50 of the Billboard Hot 100 second week. If the song debuts atop the chart as projected, it could post the biggest decline from #1 in Hot 100 history.

The Weeknd’s “Cry For Me” is challenging for a top 15 debut on the Billboard Hot 100 based on early projections (chart dated Feb. 15th, 2025).

The Weeknd & Playboi Carti’s “Timeless” is on pace to re-enter the top 10 of the Hot 100 at around #7 based on early projections (chart dated Feb. 15th, 2025).

Morgan Wallen’s “I’m The Problem” is on pace for a #2 debut on the Billboard Hot 100 based on early projections (chart dated Feb. 15th, 2025), could challenge for #1 based on performance throughout the week.

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With A Smile” is on pace to return to #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 for a 5th week based on early projections (chart dated Feb. 15th, 2025).

Kendrick Lamar becomes the third rapper ever to win 20 awards at the #GRAMMYs , joining Jay-Z and Kanye West.

Kendrick Lamar is now a 20x winner at the #GRAMMYs . He now ranks among the 20 most awarded artists of all time.

Sierra Ferrell sweeps all four of her categories at the 2025 #GRAMMYs .

Beyoncé extends her record as the most awarded artist in #GRAMMYs  history (33 awards won).

Charli xcx becomes the fifth female artist ever to win Best Dance/Electronic Album at the #GRAMMYs .

Female artists have won Best Pop Solo Performance at the #GRAMMYs  in each of the last four years.

2022: Drivers License
2023: Easy On Me
2024: Flowers
2025: Espresso

Travis Scott’s single “4X4” sold more CDs first week in the US than any rap album released this decade has (160K).

Note: The sales figure for "4X4" is overwhelmingly made up of physical sales (over 99% physical), which are significantly more difficult to track than digital sales; a higher margin of error than usual is expected.

Final Billboard Hot 100 Predictions (chart dated February 8th, 2025)

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With A Smile” is predicted to return to #1 on Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart with over 28 million streams in the US—leading by over 5 million streams.

Chris Brown’s “Residuals” is predicted to re-enter the Billboard Hot 100 at around #40, reaching a new peak with the release of a music video.

Tate McRae’s “Sports Car” is challenging for a top 20 debut on the Billboard Hot 100, predicted to debut at around #21.

Bruno Mars & Sexyy Red’s “Fat Juicy & Wet” is predicted to debut inside the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 at around #17.

Travis Scott’s “4X4” is predicted to earn the biggest US pure sales week of any rap song released this decade (160K), surpassing WAP (125K).

Travis Scott’s “4X4” is predicted to debut at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with the biggest US physical sales week of any single this decade (over 150K sold). It would be his 5th Hot 100 #1.

Artists nominated for Best New Artist at the 2025 #GRAMMYs , ranked from most to least likely to win the award based off of Gold Derby:

Chappell Roan
Sabrina Carpenter
RAYE
Shaboozey
Benson Boone
Doechii
Teddy Swims
Khruangbin

Singles nominated for Song of the Year at the 2025 #GRAMMYs  , ranked from most to least likely to win based off of Gold Derby’s combined odds:

Birds of a Feather
Good Luck, Babe!
Die With a Smile
Not Like Us
Texas Hold ‘Em
Please Please Please
Fortnight
A Bar Song (Tipsy)

Singles nominated for Record of the Year at the 2025 #GRAMMYs , ranked from most to least likely to win based off of Gold Derby’s combined odds:

Espresso
Birds of a Feather
Not Like Us
Now And Then
Good Luck, Babe!
Texas Hold ‘Em
Fortnight
360

Albums nominated for Album of the Year at the 2025 #GRAMMYs  , ranked from most to least likely to win the award according to Gold Derby’s combined odds.

Hit Me Hard and Soft
Cowboy Carter
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Short n’ Sweet
Brat
New Blue Sun
TTPD
Djesse Vol. 4

Jimin’s “Who” is expected to spend a 26th week on the Billboard Hot 100, up 22% in points, the biggest gainer on this week’s chart.

This week's Billboard 200 top 10:

#1. (=) DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS [2nd week at #1]
#2. (+1) SOS
#3. (NEW) Balloonerism
#4. (=) GNX
#5. (+5) The Secret of Us
#6. (=) Short n’ Sweet
#7. (-2) WHAM
#8. (+1) One Thing at a Time
#9. (-2) Hit Me Hard and Soft
#10. (+2) The Tortured Poets Department

Sexyy Red & Bruno Mars’ “Fat Juicy & Wet” has entered the top 10 of US Apple Music.

ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ “APT.” becomes the second fastest song in history to surpass 1 billion streams on Spotify (100 days).

Bruno Mars now holds the top 2 fastest songs to this milestone (#1 is “Die With A Smile").