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13.03.2026 15:09
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hope Iran didn’t destroy the conexes at Ali al-Salem with all the crayon MREs
The asset class will likely be fine, B3/B- leveraged credit historically defaults just like this! But maybe people’s expectations of 10-12% net returns with no losses and ample liquidity were slightly misplaced
Lastly, direct lending is finally going through its first turn in cycle. KBRA has par and issuer-weighted defaults plus non-accruals at 2.9% and 4.7%, respectively. If you add to that the borrowers with some form of “bad PIK” you can easily see the shadow default rate is ~8-9% today
You can see the compression of returns in this table
1. Coupon spreads compressed from S+675 to S+475, while SOFR (the “S”) came down
2. OIDs went from 3pts in 2023 to 1pt today
JPM research note showing Yield to Maturty (YTM) for private credit transactions in blue alongside the YTM for B3/B- rated BSLs in the JPMorgan Leveraged Loan Index
The real problem today with private credit is that the extraordinary flow of US retail and insurance capital into the market since 2023 has pushed returns to basically sit on top of comparable quality (B3/B-) broadly syndicated loans
North Korea is open for US tourists, the only thing prohibiting this is Kim Jong Un putting people in death camps. If he stopped doing that, it’s basically open for business you guys
bsky.app/profile/ship...
“Marco, we need you to sell 10 million crude deltas today”
our client state continues to act as the aggressor in a way that is likely to prolong, not shorten, the conflict bsky.app/profile/carl...
they’re not gonna right the ship on this fund. High cost of liabilities, weak ROE to say nothing of how crowded MS retail distribution platform is with direct lending funds (this fund is only available at MS)
The interval fund structure here is going to kill them tbh. Mandatory 5% repurchases each quarter and the fund has very little headroom on leverage. Ergo, selling $1B out of the portfolio
direct lending folks don’t want to get up on stage and take hard questions
Crack this sucker wiiide open please
Was on a panel at a conference this week for retail and, for the first time since pre-covid, there was not a single direct lending manager on the stage with us. Instead? Infra, credit secondaries and ABF (me)
I can’t tell if this is facetious or not
The schadenfreude I’ll feel watching that stupid Cliffwater direct lending interval fund-of-funds crack will easily last me until college football season
I’m a sucker for term, non-mark-to-market financing
Very interesting structure contemplated here for 6S and CG BDCs to boost leverage in a manner that doesn’t count against BDC accounting limitations while also going no fee to maximize yields
was looking at hotels there last night because we have a slew of points but it’s so cumbersome and the selection is just ok that I’ll probably end up transferring the points to United and then booking the hotel I want through @vandyglobal.bsky.social
that platform is a complete tire fire, amazing how badly the last ~12 months has gone for Sapphire’s business prospects
View of Navy Pier in Chicago from William E. Dever Crib in Lake Michigan east of North Avenue. // Image captured at: 2026-03-09 00:20:01 UTC (about 17 min. prior to this post) // Image sourced from: glerl.noaa.gov/metdata/chi/ // Current Temp in Chicago: 59 F | 15 C // Precip: overcast clouds // Wind: S at 8 mph | 13 kph // Humidity: 54%
Current* conditions near Chicago, IL:
Fuck Dan Hurley and UConn!
ok one more
she’s been making wine since 1957, this might be the old lady’s last cuvée
Happy Friday, you guys
Iconic cover
it's insane that my country's current position is that, if we don't like the leader of a sovereign nation, not only do we get to kill them we get to pick their successor
FWIW, US registered funds like non-traded BDCs/REITs/intervals have the ability under ‘40 Act to deliver liquidity in excess of redemption gates but it requires 1) the approval of the fund’s board of directors and 2) sufficient liquidity to deliver the requisite proceeds
