Very happy to see "Pretending not to know reveals a capacity for model-based self-simulation", a collaboration with @chazfirestone.bsky.social and @ianbphillips.bsky.social, out in Psych. Science!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177...
🧵
This video is imparting genuinely amazing news about the shingles vaccine, but also contains a description of vaccines that made me laugh so hard I had to sit down. “We inject the dead version so that when the live one shows up it knows we’ve killed before” is both accurate and SO FUCKING FUNNY
there is never a good time or place, said this critic. too much to do, not enough resources or time to do it.
but yeah, im with you. how we gather feedback and id problems or solutions or concepts of a solution is never easy. definitely a multisolving candidate though;
They built a system specifically for precision, so i agree. The irony is that, from a cost loss perspective the road to improving is higher pod first then tails into lower false alarms.
I think the social penalty is incurred only if there is no explanation. the social contract has to be renewed and renegotiated with our constituencies. warnings are a service not just a text product
Evidence to warn is overrated. Lead time is about taking chances and yes “over” warning. Imperfect observations, imperfect science …
Not sure we have a system for the tyrrany of the tiny or single storm, let alone design a precise one. But i think we can have a more robust approach.
Jared miserability index is gonna get to 11/10…
Loud frog. Not a peeper, though the volume was still high from nearby peepers; this green fellow was calling out vigorously
Lunchercise brought me to these loud fellows. Two kingfishers, two pileated (same ones) and a host of small birbs were all very excited to be in nice wx.
they can apply now. they have a video explainer thats helpful.
morning sighting of the pileated pair from the porch. maybe we caught a glimpse of the mating ritual yesterday!
An LLM does not need to pull a trigger or automate a missile to serve the cause of war. It can work to make obscene violence feel justified and rational — to give you the illusion that you have “thought the matter through.” 🧵
Perfection in flight
Two hawks circling under gray clouds
Two pileated woodpeckers in a tree. Putting on a display
Bob Ross was here. Illuminated cloud layers, whispy texture next to a happy little tree.
The sky amazed. Two hawks, two pileated Seen. Owls in the distance and the clouds and blue sky was a visit from bob ross. The peepers were peeping. Time with the mrs well spent
Design agency price list displayed on black letterboard: ranging from 'WE DESIGN EVERYTHING' at 500 EUR to 'YOU DESIGN EVERYTHING' at 8000 EUR, with prices increasing based on client involvement. Shows ironic pricing structure where less designer involvement costs more.
Design costs (classic!)
Hows the clowder today?
Being close is all we should expect. Precision isnt the goal, just beyond our capability. and definitely a value add for estimating the worst case scenario
AI research:
Researcher: Claude, please eat ten hamburgers.
Claude: Done! I have eaten ten hamburgers. The first two were delicious, but after that I began to experience bloating and the meat sweats.
Headline: Anthropic Says Claude has "A Fully Developed Digestive System"
A brown penguin chick of some kind. It looks very much like a man in a suit. It is bedraggled and miserable
Made it to Friday but at what cost
Bookmark: How to Learn. This book was written so that you might learn. In order to learn from it, however, you must know how to use it properly. The book will teach you little unless you put organized effort into reading it, for active, directed work is necessary if you wish to understand and remember what you read. Careful, intelligent reading of this book will mean that you understand better what you learn in class. What is equally important, if you have studied this book properly in the first place, it will serve as a convenient and quick refresher for future reference. Nearly everyone knows that we easily forget what we learn when we do not use it. What many students do not realize, however, is that we can relearn what we have once learned, providing we have learned it well in the first place. Thus, this book provides a convenient auxiliary memory that can serve you all of your life. In order to understand and remember the contents of this book it is essential that you do more than read. It means that you must actively recite, question, and review the material you have read. See the reverse of this card for suggestions that will help you to study this book. By following these suggestions, you will find the book will be more valuable to you both the course in which it is assigned and as a part of your permanent library.
BOOKMARK How to Get the Most Out of a Book 1. Skim through the assigned reading so that you will know what it is you are to study. 2. Read the text carefully. Do not forget that many important ideas are presented in graphs, diagrams or maps. 3. As you read, stop now and then and recite to yourself, in your own words, the important ideas in what you have just read. 4. Make brief notes in the margin. These will serve as cues for subsequent self-recitation. 5. Mark important or key passages for later review. 6. Review the material at least once between the first time you study the assignment and study for exams. Make use of your marginal notes as cues for self-recitation. 7. Remember that a little relearning is necessary each time you wish to use what you have learned for an examination, a related course, or for independent study. If you use the author's headings, marked passages, and brief notes for cues it will help you relearn easily. 8. Coordinate what you read with what you learn in the classroom. Keep well-organized lecture notes. Lecture notes that are legible and accurate will, like your text-book, serve in the years to come as quick and inexpensive keys to the knowledge that you are acquiring. JAMES E. DEESE Associate Professor of Psychology The Johns Hopkins University Author of THE PSYCHOLOGY OF LEARNING
Yesterday, I was reading a used book from 1959 I bought some years ago, and I found this bookmark, which must have been there when I bought the book.
Given the age of the book and Deese at Johns Hopkins, the bookmark would be from the 1960s. Useful advice to students even now.
#TimeCapsule
over cookies and milk, we can chat...
looks like the shapefile directory via ftp is a bad request…ive inquired internally as well.
the shapefiles arent getting out? I know our ftp site has changed very recently
Looks like Parker Solar Probe got hit by a fairly fast CME shortly before it began its latest dive into the solar atmosphere.
New forecasts and visualisations available here: swxforecastlab.org/forecasts.html
Fair point.
And yet context goes a long way to actually understand weather and its changes. jargon, explained, ceases to be jargon
If you dont watch, you dont need to suffer
The one science reform we can all agree on, but we're too cowardly to do
Screenshot of the "Does that use a lot of energy?" online app
Hannah Ritchie has built a fun little tool where you can compare energy usage of various products and activities.
This is super helpful imho, because it's so hard to develop intuitions even just about the scales involved here.
hannahritchie.substack.com/p/does-that-...
Surprise snow? I accept.
