Some good news for Democrats in Maine as former rep David McCrea will be running again in HD3. McCrea had the best overperformance of any losing candidate in 2024

2024
ME House: R+7.8🔴
US President: R+24.3🔴

A ~D+8 environment would make this a race to watch #MEpolitics

Recent polling has shown Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in the primary and doing better against Susan Collins in the general.

🔵Mills: 44%
🔴Collins: 45% (+0.4)

🔵Platner: 46% (+3)
🔴Collins: 43%

#MEpolitics

The Pan Atlantic 68th Omnibus Poll also shows Graham Platner performing better than Janet Mills in the H2H matchup with Susan Collins

🔵Platner: 44%
🔴Collins: 40%

🔵Mills: 44%
🔴Collins: 44%

The Dec poll had both Mills and Platner essentially even with Collins #MEpolitics

Pan Atlantics 68th Omnibus Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 7pts

🟣Platner: 46% (+9)
🟢Mills: 39% (-8)
Undecided: 11% (-3)
(Change since December)

This poll comes on the heels of the recent UNH poll showing Platner up by 38pts #MEpolitics

Here's who has had their signatures certified to get access to the primary ballot in Maine as of Monday. Still waiting on Mills along with a number of other candidates on the governor side (and all of the congressional candidates) #MEpolitics

February Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine

Polling Avg (Change since Dec - 1 new poll)
🟪Platner: 47.2% (+3.6)
🟩Mills: 38.2% (+0.2)

Platner is not only hanging with the 2-term governor, but is likely ahead based on current polling #MEpolitics

Tomorrow is Special Election Tuesday in Maine!

HD94 in Lewiston will vote to replace retiring Rep Kristen Cloutier (D). City Councilor Scott Harriman (D) will face School Committee Member Janet Beaudoin (R).

2024 Result
ME House: D+19🔵
President: D+14🔵

#MEpolitics

This is for itemized contributions only

Maine-based:
🟦Dunlap: 81%
🟥LePage: 60%
🟦Wood: 8%

Senate -> House race candidate Jordan Wood is bringing in the most money in CD2

🟦Wood: $1.2M (Sen->CD2 in Nov)
🟥LePage: $300K
🟦Dunlap: $290K

LePage saw his numbers decline Q/Q while Wood is raising 4x his amount now that he is in the House race

Around 2/3 of Platner's money is coming from small dollar donators, well above both Mills and Collins

For itemized contributions, here is how much is coming from Mainers
🟦Platner: 21%
🟦Mills: 41%
🟥Collins: 9%

Contributions are coming from all over the country for all three

Q4 2025 campaign finance breakdown for the U.S. Senate and CD2 House race

Top line contributions: Platner Dominated
🟦Platner: $4.6M
🟦Mills: $2.7M
🟥Collins: $2.2M

No matter the matchup, the Dem and Collins will have plenty of cash to run a long, tough campaign #MEpolitics

The Census Bureau recently released their state-to-state migration estimates for 2024. Below is the net migration to/from Maine

🟦Highest Net:
NH -> ME: 1,258

🟥Lowest Net:
ME -> NC: 1,276

#MEpolitics

A very Maine article, partially using distance from a Hannaford to determine ruralness

Most rural towns:
10. Moscow
9. Eustis
8. Portage Lake
7. Jackman
6. Masardis
5. Danforth
4. Weston
3. Allagash
2. Moose River
1. Topsfield

#MEpolitics

www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/21/p...

From my estimates, 11 State Senators contributed to a gubernatorial candidate (not including candidates who are currently serving).

Pingree received the most support among Dems, while James Libby is the only Republican to receive any donations from the ME Senate #MEpolitics

The lowest % from Mainers by party:

🔵King III: 33%
🔴Bush: 9%

#MEpolitics

2025 In-State Contributions by candidate for the ME Gov Race

Bellows has raised the most money from within Maine. Bellows also has the highest % of her money coming from Maine among Dems (70%). Wessels (90%) and Jones (85%) have the highest % from Mainers among Rs.

#MEpolitics

2025 Contributions by Candidate for the ME Gov Race
🔵Pingree: $1.4M
🔵Bellows: $1.1M
🔴Bush: $964K
🔵King III: $908K
🔵Jackson: $644K
🔴Charles: $541K
🟡Bennett: $529K
🔵Shah: $510K
🔴Jones: $440K
🔴McCarthy: $336K
🔴Midgley: $251K

#MEpolitics

As expected, State Senator Joe Baldacci has joined a small field of Democratic candidates in the ME02 House race. He'll face Jordan Wood and Matt Dunlap in the primary.

A recent Pan Atlantic poll for Baldacci showed him as the current favorite #mepolitics

www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/12/p...

Active Voter changes in Maine from 2024-2025

Democrats: -4,711 (-0.5%)
Republicans: -1,670 (-0.2%)
Unenrolled: +23,317 (+2.2%)

The majority of the increase in unenrolled voters is due to No Labels withdrawing from Maine #MEpolitics

There have been three polls testing both Mills and Platner against Collins in a general election.

Polling Average
🔵Platner: 42%
🔴Collins: 40%

🔵Mills: 42%
🔴Collins: 42%

#MEpolitics

December Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine

Polling Average (Change since Nov - 2 new polls)
🟣Platner: 43.6% (-1.7)
🟢Mills: 38.0% (+5.7)

Polls in this race are showing everything from Platner+20 to Mills+10 #mepolitics

punchbowl.news/wp-content/u...

Pan Atlantic Research, as part of their 67th Omnibus Poll, also polled the CD2 race for Joe Baldacci, who is considering jumping in the race.

Dem Primary
Baldacci: 42%
Dunlap: 10%
Wood: 10%
Undecided: 38%

General
🔵Baldacci: 43%
🔴LePage: 44%

#mepolitics

Just under 500,000 people cast ballots in this off-year election. That represents:

1⃣47% of Active voters📈 (from Febs voter roll)
2⃣An increase of 82k voters from 2023📈

Maine continues to have some of the nation's best voter participation every election #mepolitics

Q1's No margin was 2.6pts larger than Q2s Yes margin. Populous southern, coastal Maine voted slightly more in favor of Q2, while central Maine voted stronger against Q1 #mepolitics

CD2 (using the current lines) voted No on Q3 back in 2016 by 23.6pts. A 30.7pt difference from their Yes on 2 vote this year

I’ll have to check on that. Definitely surprised by these results, would’ve thought No on 2 by double digits in CD2. Things have clearly changed!

2010
LePage: 42.5%
Cutler: 35.4%
Mitchell: 16.1%
LePage+7.1

2014
LePage: 52.5%
Michaud: 39.5%
Cutler: 8.0%
LePage+12.9

2022
LePage: 50.3%
Mills: 47.5%
Hunkler: 2.2%
LePage+2.8

Both No and 1 and Yes on 2 won in CD1 and CD2. The margins also far outpaced Harris' 2024 margin of 6.9pts.

Q1
CD1: No+41.9🟦
CD2: No+12.0🟦

Q2
CD1: Yes+41.2🟦
CD2: Yes+7.1🟦

2024 President
CD1: Harris+21.6🟦
CD2: Trump+9.0🟥

#mepolitics

Yes, I will post them soon. No on 1 and Yes on 2 won in both districts though