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Belén Abdala

@beluabdala

Political science postdoc at University of Salzburg/DEUDEM project. Previously at the University of Vienna. Research on political behaviour & quantitative methods. She/her.

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21.09.2023
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Latest posts by Belén Abdala @beluabdala

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EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference:

PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend

Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf
Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT.

More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR

04.03.2026 13:52 👍 31 🔁 37 💬 0 📌 2

Uganda has shut down the internet again - ahead of tomorrow's elections. This is bad news for those monitoring the elections, it is bad news for the spread of rumours, and it is bad news for holding perpetrators of election-related violence accountable.

14.01.2026 18:45 👍 16 🔁 11 💬 0 📌 0
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Voting against or against voting? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Voting against or against voting?

Why is #Politics so negative right now? 🤔

Ming M. Boyer @carolinaplescia.bsky.social & André Blais finds two kinds of negativity:
⚡ #Voting against a candidate
⚡ Feeling like voting doesn’t matter at all
Only one threatens #Democracy--and it’s not the one you think. 👀

28.11.2025 10:30 👍 11 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0

Had a great time at the @zweitstimme.bsky.social Workshop on Elections, Public Opinion & Elite Behavior.
I presented my work on why minority groups vote, and how these motivations relate to turnout among LGB and ethnic minorities.
Amazing conversations and a very inspiring group!

24.11.2025 09:36 👍 10 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350...

@manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.

29.10.2025 09:55 👍 107 🔁 49 💬 1 📌 0
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Although not yet available to read (January 2026!), very happy to see our book on political trust online. Co-edited with @mfair.bsky.social and available open access, we think it'll be a useful addition to the field.

www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/a-r...

20.10.2025 10:29 👍 44 🔁 16 💬 1 📌 4
Abstract of the article "How populist citizens see the people and their place in representative democracy" by Rosa Kindt, Robert A. Huber and Kristof Jacobs. Published online first in West European Politics.

Abstract of the article "How populist citizens see the people and their place in representative democracy" by Rosa Kindt, Robert A. Huber and Kristof Jacobs. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 2, displaying the comparison of high and low populists' marginal means on whether politicians belong to the people.

Figure 2, displaying the comparison of high and low populists' marginal means on whether politicians belong to the people.

Figure 3, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the economical dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'.

Figure 3, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the economical dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'.

Figure 4, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the cultural dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'.

Figure 4, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the cultural dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'.

💥Online first:

"How populist citizens see the people and their place in representative democracy"

by Rosa Kindt @robert-a-huber.bsky.social & @kristofjacobs1.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

14.10.2025 07:23 👍 25 🔁 11 💬 0 📌 1
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Join us next week!
Anna Lia Brunetti (@univie.ac.at ) & @beluabdala.bsky.social (@unisalzburg.bsky.social) will be presenting their work on the moderating role of citizen's meanings of voting.
Sarah Birch (KCL) and Carolien van Ham (@radboudpol.bsky.social) will discuss.

14.10.2025 10:03 👍 7 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 1

Check out these *amazing* papers on the adoption, use, and effects of postal voting!

Including a little self-promo 🎉: my article on how the direct cost of voting shapes citizens’ preferences for postal, in-person, or internet voting.

🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

09.10.2025 16:59 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Last Friday (Sept. 19), @andduer.bsky.social, @mcortinaescudero.bsky.social, @yavuzmehmet.bsky.social and I had the great pleasure of hosting an excellent workshop at @unisalzburg.bsky.social on how to use Large Language Models #LLMs to boost International Relations research. A short 🧵1/4

23.09.2025 13:22 👍 7 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 2

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

30.06.2025 06:57 👍 51 🔁 46 💬 0 📌 3

Thrilled to share that "The Meanings of Voting for Citizens" is out with OUP!

Loved working on this with brilliant mentors, co-authors, and friends

📘 The book (open access) explores how people think about voting and how these meanings influence participation

📊 And the data’s open too via AUSSDA

30.06.2025 13:14 👍 13 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 2
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Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban

28.06.2025 17:23 👍 38563 🔁 8080 💬 501 📌 800
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Doing important things at @epsanet.bsky.social …like locating the one veg canapé at the reception 👀
@stawi-univie.bsky.social
@bseisl.bsky.social
@mkaltenegger.bsky.social
@alexanderdalheimer.bsky.social
@marvins.bsky.social
@elenaheinz.bsky.social
@mascakir.bsky.social
@thomasmmeyer.bsky.social

27.06.2025 22:59 👍 24 🔁 9 💬 1 📌 1
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🚨EPSA alert 🚨 @priera.bsky.social and I are organizing a pre-EPSA conference on political institutions on Wed 25 June. Same location as EPSA - Room 0.A.04. We've an amazing line-up of fantastic junior colleagues matched with more senior discussants. All EPSA attendees can attend and are welcome

23.06.2025 12:11 👍 24 🔁 12 💬 1 📌 2
Preview
2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior 2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

03.06.2025 07:35 👍 80 🔁 91 💬 1 📌 3
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Some exciting news!
Today’s my first day at @unisalzburg.bsky.social, joining the DEUDEM team (sites.google.com/view/deudem) with @mblauberger.bsky.social to study democratic backsliding in the EU.

Thrilled to be part of this project 💫

And what a view to kick things off! 🤩

03.06.2025 16:08 👍 31 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0

Systematic peer-reviewed assessment showing the fundamental flaws of the Cass Review. Many in politics and beyond have used the Cass report to justify the erosion of gender-affirming care. This study is a litmus test for those who claim to "follow the science" on the topic.

10.05.2025 17:24 👍 76 🔁 28 💬 0 📌 1
Measuring electoral democracy with observables

Most cross-national indices of democracy rely centrally on coder judgments, which are susceptible to bias and error, and require expensive and time consuming coding by experts. We present an approach to measurement based on observables that aim to preserve the nuanced quality of subjectively coded democracy indices. Our observable-to-subjective score mapping is free of idiosyncratic coder errors arising from misinformation, slack, or biases. It is less susceptible to systematic bias that may arise from coders’ inferences about a country’s regime, for example, from the ideology of the ruler. The data collection procedure and mode of analysis are fully transparent and replicable, and the procedure is based on random forests and is cheap to produce, easy to update, and offers coverage for all polities with sovereign or semisovereign status, surpassing the sample of any existing index. We show that this expansive coverage makes a big difference to our understanding of some causal questions.

Measuring electoral democracy with observables Most cross-national indices of democracy rely centrally on coder judgments, which are susceptible to bias and error, and require expensive and time consuming coding by experts. We present an approach to measurement based on observables that aim to preserve the nuanced quality of subjectively coded democracy indices. Our observable-to-subjective score mapping is free of idiosyncratic coder errors arising from misinformation, slack, or biases. It is less susceptible to systematic bias that may arise from coders’ inferences about a country’s regime, for example, from the ideology of the ruler. The data collection procedure and mode of analysis are fully transparent and replicable, and the procedure is based on random forests and is cheap to produce, easy to update, and offers coverage for all polities with sovereign or semisovereign status, surpassing the sample of any existing index. We show that this expansive coverage makes a big difference to our understanding of some causal questions.

A few years ago, @danweitzel.net, John Gerring, @skaaning.bsky.social and I were curious how well one could predict subjective democracy measures using easy(ish) to code observables. Turns out, *quite* well, even out of sample. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

30.04.2025 21:20 👍 63 🔁 23 💬 1 📌 2
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Pint of Science Vienna Researchers across Vienna share their discoveries with you.

🎉 Das Warten hat ein Ende: Das Programm für das Pint of Science Festival 2025 in #Wien ist online! 🍻🧠

Vom 19. bis 21. Mai erwarten euch zahlreiche spannende Vorträge in gemütlicher Atmosphäre.

Alle Details und Tickets findet ihr hier: pintofscience.at/events/wien

#Pint25AT

14.04.2025 09:41 👍 13 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0
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Call for Papers!

📢 6th Annual Digital Democracy Workshop
🏫 University of Zurich
📅 13-14 November 2025
⏳ Deadline to submit paper abstracts: 31 May 2025

democracy.dsi.uzh.ch/app/uploads/...

16.04.2025 13:41 👍 13 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 1

This is such an amazing opportunity to learn more about computational methods and connect with inspiring women*! Can't recommend it enough.

14.04.2025 17:40 👍 8 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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🏳️‍🌈 Join us for our April webinar with @grahn.bsky.social this Thursday!

🧐 Michal will present his new insights on how negative messages affect support for trans rights in tolerant societies.

📆 Be sure to mark your calendars!

08.04.2025 08:18 👍 14 🔁 12 💬 2 📌 2

Thanks so much, Filip!

01.04.2025 19:27 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Muchísimas gracias! 🎉

01.04.2025 14:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Thank you so much! Fueron las mejores vacaciones de la historia 🤩

01.04.2025 12:54 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Thank you so much! 🤩

01.04.2025 12:53 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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✨Big news✨ I successfully defended my PhD last month! Still can’t quite believe it. So grateful to everyone who made it possible, especially my amazing supervisors @carolinaplescia.bsky.social @rdassonneville.bsky.social & committee @turnbulldugarte.com @zeynsom.bsky.social @thomasmmeyer.bsky.social

01.04.2025 08:26 👍 60 🔁 8 💬 4 📌 2

Huge congrats!! 🎉

25.02.2025 08:27 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0