Gregory Daco

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott suggested this morning that he had decided not to compel Fed Chair Jay Powell to produce his regular, Q1 monetary policy testimony, due to the fallout from the DOJ probe

"He is more concerned about the criminal proceeding, and I get that," Scott told CNBC

🚨 @iea.org member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict

▶️ 400 million barrels
▶️ As @JavierBlas says "key [factor] is million barrels per day FLOW over the short term"
▶️Japan releasing ~80m barrels staring 3/16

Trump tells Axios there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran "Little this and that... Any time I want it to end it will end," Trump said.

President Trump told Axios in a brief phone interview Wednesday that the war with Iran will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

www.axios.com/2026/03/11/t...

US #Inflation dynamics point to ongoing short-term pressures from tariffs

📊Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.4% (flat)
⬇️6-mo: 2.6% (-0.2pt)
⬆️3-mo: 3.0% (+0.3pt)

📊Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.5% (flat)
⬇️6-mo: 2.3% (-0.2pt)
⬆️3mo: 3.0% (+0.4pt)

📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.4% (flat)
✅+0.1pt vs. post-pandemic low

📊Core #CPI flat 2.5% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low

⚠️Wild upswing expected in March (oil) and April (post government shutdown)

US #Inflation: the good, the bad & the ugly

✅Good: CPI flat at 2.4% y/y

🟠Bad: inflation understated by ~0.3-0.4pt from government shutdown

⛔️Ugly: tariff passthrough ongoing & #oil price shock incoming via gasoline prices

US CPI #inflation mixed ahead of #oil shock

📈#CPI +0.3% in Feb
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.4%
⛽️Energy +0.6%

✅Core gds 0.1%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -0.4%
👕Apparel 1.3%

✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.2%
🏡Rent 0.1%
🏠OER 0.2%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.6%
🛫Air 1.4%
📜Car insur -0.3%

Trump Hints at Early End to Iran War, Easing Oil-Shock Concerns President Donald Trump on Monday said the US and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge.

▶️ Trump: US/Israel making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon”
▶️ Trump: US Navy will escort tankers to maintain a steady oil supply
▶️ Iranian President Pezeshkian: conditionally prepared to reduce tensions

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

➡️ Oil prices jumped to as high as $119 a barrel, highest since 2022
➡️ Prices later fell back to below $105 after @financialtimes.com reported G7 finance ministers would discuss joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by @IEA
➡️France’s finance minister: “we are not there yet”

President Donald Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, as officials grow increasingly concerned the stockpile may have been moved, according to 3 diplomatic officials briefed on the matter.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Khamenei’s Son Named New Iran Leader as Strikes Shake Region Iran named the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader and President Donald Trump called $100 oil a “small price to pay,” with neither side showing any sign of deescalating a ...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

« Brent surged as much as 28% to $119 a barrel, the biggest intraday move since April 2020, while West Texas Intermediate jumped 31%. Kuwait and the UAE have started reducing output as storage rapidly fills up due to the closure of Hormuz »

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Onto the FA Cup Quarter Finals! 💙

BREAKING: The national average price of diesel has seen its largest single day price increase ever recorded- rising 22.3c/gal today, beating the previous largest daily rise of 22.2c/gal on 3/4/22, according to GasBuddy data. The average for diesel is up 71.4c/gal vs a week ago.

« In this volatile world, the lessons from the pandemic suggest that central banks should resist the temptation to fine-tune the economy, accommodate fiscal policy or deliberately run the economy hot in pursuit of marginal short-term gains. The costs of misjudgement can be significant: credibility »

Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the @ecb.europa.eu says « in a world marked by more frequent supply-side shocks, the ECB’s price stability mandate is flexible enough to accommodate temporary deviations from target while keeping policy firmly focused on the medium term. »

When adjusted for inflation, the retail sales picture is more concerning -- not much growth outside of online spending

⚠️In a new economic paradigm driven by supply shocks: stagflation risks are greater

▶️Weak job growth & constrained real income growth mean lower #GDP

▶️Negative labor supply shock & geopolitical conflict mean more #inflation

▶️Fortunately, strong #productivity growth

🇺🇸 Very soft #Retail sales in Jan

⛔️Sales -0.2%
⛔️Inflation-adjusted -0.3%

✅Core sales +0.3%
🟠Volumes +0%

💻Online 1.9%
🛋️Furn 0.7%
🏠Build mat 0.6%
🏬Merch 0.4%
🛒Groc 0.2%
👩‍🍳Rest/bar -0.2%
🎮Elec -0.6%
🚗Auto -0.9%
⚽️Sports -1.2%
👗Cloth -1.7%
⛽️Gas -2.9%
⚕️Health -3.0%

🔶 Fragile labor market foundation as the pillars of job growth are under pressure

🔶Healthcare with its first negative print since January 2022

🔶Leisure down 3 of the last 4 months

🔶State and Local governments only +4k

⚠️Jobs gain diffusion across private payrolls fell back closer to recessionary levels -- this matters because when the main pillars of job growth (health and leisure) weaken, payrolls turn negative

Let's take a deeper look at this #jobsreport...

🔴3-mo average: +6k/month
🔴6-mo average: -1/month
🔴12-mo average: +13k/month

The latest population control revisions indicate a -1.4mn revision to the US labor force with 1.4mn fewer employed

We're going through a historic negative labor supply shock with net migration falling from over 2mn per year to close to zero while ageing demographics are at play

The employment gain in 2025 (+116k) was the weakest since 2002

The US economy has lost 19k jobs since April 2025

Feb '26 US #Jobsreport: Simply ugly⛔️

🔻Payrolls -92k
🔻Private -86k
🔻Gds -25k
🔻Services -61k
🔻Gov -6k

🔻Diffusion: 51%
🔻Revisions Dec/Jan: -69k

🔺#Unemployment 4.4% (+0.1%)
🔻Part rate 62.0% (-0.1%)
🔻Revisions to labor force -1.4mn

📉Wages
✅+0.4% m/m
✅3.8% y/y

🛢️US WTI crude futures topped $85 a barrel for the first time in almost 2yrs as the Middle East war paralyzes Hormuz traffic
🛢️Brent up +20% this week
⚠️Qatar's energy minister warned that oil could hit $150 a barrel in 2-3 weeks if Strait remains blocked

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

💡Reasons for the layoff announcements in 2026:

1️⃣ Contract Loss: 39%
2️⃣ Market and Economic Conditions: 25%
3️⃣ Restructuring: 19%
4️⃣ Closings: 15%
5️⃣ AI: 8%

🚨 Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 48k #job cut announcements in February

✅-55% m/m
✅-72% y/y
⚠️Led by Tech (AI) & Education (state and local budgets)
⚠️Transportation & Healthcare seeing rising announcements in2026

The euro is sliding as a surge in oil and natural gas prices calls attention to Europe’s vulnerability www.bloomberg.com/news/article...