Deborah Avant

Almost impossible to keep up with all the shit.

Iran War Live Updates: First 6 Days Cost U.S. $11.3 Billion, Pentagon Says

Iran War Live Updates: First 6 Days Cost U.S. $11.3 Billion, Pentagon Says, Acknowledge that this total "excludes many costs tied to the buildup," so the true cost is likely much higher

Shocking that the foreign minister of the murderous Iranian regime sounds so much more sensible than American officials.

The war of unintended consequences Israel and the US have achieved many military aims in Iran, but the unpredictable fallout poses threats to everyone

Yup, every war.
The war of unintended consequences - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

Poll: A majority of Americans opposes U.S. military action in Iran Most Americans disapprove of President Trump's handling of Iran, and a majority sees Iran as either only a minor threat or no threat at all, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.

"Just 36% approve of how Trump is handling Iran, and a majority (55%) thinks Iran either represents a minor threat or no threat at all to the United States." www.npr.org/2026/03/06/n...

Dogs and students and this moment I am a political scientist. I have spent the last 30+ years studying security, including war and how to best manage violence. Today when I picked up the paper (or the NYT app on my phone, actually), I...

First blog since Jan 2025. Inspired by a somewhat depressing interaction with my students.
www.deborahavant.com/post/dogs-an...

MRFF Inundated with Complaints of Gleeful Commanders Telling Troops Iran War is “Part of God’s Divine Plan” to Usher in the Return of Jesus Christ “This morning our commander opened up the combat readiness status briefing by urging us to not be “afraid” as to what is happening with our combat operations in Iran right now. He urged us to tell our...

Searching for a rationale for Iran? Add this to the list.
www.militaryreligiousfreedom.org/2026/03/mrff...

Opinion | Ro Khanna Is Shaken by What He’s Learned From the Epstein Files

'You need people’s faith in a democratic project. And what I’m realizing is that accountability for the elite, having some sense of justice, is essential to build trust for the broader vision.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/15/o...

One of the things I was most surprised to learn about Hitler recently is that his "success" was entirely built on bumbling from failure to failure and declaring victory every time.

A little sunshine for your day.

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap What the Democratic party needs; what it demands, is bold, persistent experimentation

One of the best pieces of advice for the Dems that I have seen from @himself.bsky.social BLUF? Ditch the median voter commitment and start experimenting.

open.substack.com/pub/programm...

America first?

Priceless

Federal Judge Blocks Texas Law Targeting Critics of Fossil Fuels

Very big win here. A federal judge says it's just fine for funds and pension plans to boycott fossil fuels
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/c...

Tenure Will Be Eliminated at Most of Oklahoma’s Public Colleges, Governor Says Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, directed the state’s two-dozen regional universities and community colleges to phase out the practice. Existing faculty members will be grandfathered in.

No words.
www.chronicle.com/article/tenu...

Trump’s Plan to Nationalize Elections Using Fabricated Claims of Foreign Interference A recent history of Donald's attempts to conjure up foreign election interference in an effort to seize voting machines and control elections in the name of national security.

NEW: Trump's plan to steal the Midterms. My latest: www.muellershewrote.com/p/trumps-pla...

Addressing climate change without the ‘rules-based order’ Everyone who cares about climate action must now grapple with how climate politics can function in a new world of uncertainty.

@matthewhoffman.bsky.social has some hopeful words on the possibilities of meeting the climate challenge in the wake of the "rule based order".
theconversation.com/addressing-c...

This is just insane. It’s only a matter of time before DHS kills another innocent person here.

(clip via MPR and @davidjbier.bsky.social on X)

U.N. Says It’s in Danger of Financial Collapse Because of Unpaid Dues

The United States is responsible for about 95 percent of the money owed to the United Nations, about $2.2 billion...

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/w...

@crow.house.gov : the tactics you use to build are different from those you use to destroy. But they should not be confused with weakness. We need to use building tactics, but build something new and better - a government that works. @josefkorbelschool.bsky.social

@crow.house.gov telling Dean Mayer and the @josefkorbelschool.bsky.social audience how he is using appropriations, legislation, and litigation to push back. And he is grateful for the citizens around the country overseeing ICE in ways that make it easier for him to do his job.

Change seems impossible until it doesn't The killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis yesterday feels like a significant turning point in what was already an awful and authoritarian situation.

Quite a lot here to think about but just the lede is worth repeating: change seems impossible until it doesn't.
open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

Murphy says Trump wants to trade ICE "murder and mayhem" for control of Minnesota's election. He also says yeah, that may sound conspiratorial but Pam Bondi's letter to Walz spells it out.

Watching America Unravel in Minneapolis

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/25/m...

Whoa

I'm Worried About Fragile American Men Lighten up, Francises.

There is nothing funny about what is going on in Minnesota, but the Stripes clip at the end is spot on.
open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

Trump 2.0 Year 1: Policy, Politics, and Global Implications Join us on Jan 20 # Trump 2.0 Year 1: Policy, Politics, and Global Implications Join the Scrivner Institute of Public Policy and Sié Chéou-Kang Center for International Security and Diplomacy exactly ...

Denver folks - check out this event in which I talk with my very smart friends about what fresh hell we're facing. I will touch on civ-mil relations, global governance, and the role of business and they will cover much more...
t.e2ma.net/webview/bddt...

US withdrawing from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as well as the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Just a big f-u to nature.

Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe Any attempt by the United States to claim the island would quickly spiral out of control.

"for those who view America’s allies as its greatest asset in an era of rising geopolitical tension, spiking that alliance system—all for an island in which American military power is already assured—would be a suicidal maneuver, without modern compare." foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/06/g...