Do you think this was already priced in by the market? Or it is just an irrelevant measure?
11.03.2026 15:17
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Do you think this was already priced in by the market? Or it is just an irrelevant measure?
Yes, data is from ENTSO retrieved through Python (entsoe package). Plots are done with R (ggplot).
The worst macro impacts of the energy shock + MP tightening were avoided during 2022-2024. That may not be the case this time around.
At the same time, labour market reaction in 2022-2024 was abnormal as firms kept workers despite weaker demand. This labour hoarding can be partly explained by labour shortages during the pandemic making firms reluctant to fire workers.
If we face another 2022-2023 style energy crisis, we should expect a different central bank response this time around. Current consensus in CB circles is that, following a large supply shock, they need to tighten forcefully to keep inflation expectations anchored. See 2025 ECB strategy review:
It is quite "funny" that the payoff Gulf monarchies got from aggressively bribing the Trump familiy and administration has been them tanking the shit out of their economies.
¿Qué políticas aplicar frente a la subida del precio de la gasolina? ¿Habría que recuperar los 20 céntimos? ¿Es posible regular el precio cómo hacen otros países? Va hilo
I did not check Sweden, I only downloaded euro area countries. As for France, interconnections with other countries that rely on gas (Italy or Germany) seems to be an important factor in price setting.
Segun la EIA, ya en 2022 producción y consumo estan igualados. En 2025, la balanza exportadora es de 3 millones de barriles por dia.
Which serves as a reminder that rising IR on the sectors that shield us from inflationary fossil fuel shocks is counterproductive and short-sighted as an inflation targeting instrument.
While rising fossil fuel prices make renewables strategically more attractive, this does not necessarily improve conditions for the industry. In 2022–2023, the wind sector hit a brick wall as interest rates increased. Operating assets benefit, but rising IR can negatively impact new projects.
European Green Deal 2 when.
TTF prices are at 63, a 19% increase over the weekend. Energy markets are increasingly getting ugly with no resolution to the conflict on the horizon.”
dues rates barallant-se per un xurro vibes
As a comparison, yesterday the natural gas plant that produced more MW in Spain had a peak of 380MW.
“And what are you going to do when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing?”
techcrunch.com/2026/02/26/g...
Reminder that energy is the only product category where the EU has a significant trade deficit. That some governments (IT & DE) are doubling down on gas right now is incomprehensible to me.
From: https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025
Europe saved hundreds of billions in fossil fuel imports (gas & coal) thanks to the deployment of renewables during the 2022-2023 energy crisis. And on top of that, one must add the destruction in oil demand that EVs are creating!
"We are freeing Iran from religious fanatics".
A prayer for Trump in the White House.
Unfortunately I would say that central banks, at least the ECB, drew the opposite lesson from 2022
Tan* ja no sé escriure en català :|
Clar però precisament la diferència és tant gran per l'efecte del preu del gas al preu majorista italià. Per tant, en tot cas, la diferència no seria tant gran.
I'm really glad European policymakers are focused on what's important
Unbelievable
1/7🧵 New paper "Too Much Finance Redux" with Jean-Louis Arcand and Enrico Berkes — a follow-up to over a decade of work on whether financial deepening can go too far. Here's the story: @gvagrad.bsky.social
Gas prices are surging again after the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and talk of ECB rate hikes returned this week.
Before repeating 2022-2023, it’s worth revisiting what actually happened during the last energy shock and how the ECBs crisis policies played out.
Following up on this. Finland is by far the euro area country most decoupled from gas. Wholesale electricity prices in Portugal and Lithuania are largely uncorrelated with gas prices. Italy, Ireland, and Greece will be among the most negatively impacted if gas prices continue rising.
They will feel the price pressure nonetheless, but most European countries do not import LNG from Qatar.
Also, I'm just checking euro area countries, not EU ones.
Just to say, do not take this classification too seriously, it is justa first approximation based on simple regressions and correlations.
