Jason "Red5" Lyall's Avatar

Jason "Red5" Lyall

@jaylyall

Prof @Dartmouth. Director, FieldLab. Carnegie Fellow. Inequality and military effectiveness, war, humanitarian aid, USAID, sci fi. Author, DIVIDED ARMIES (2020, http://amzn.to/2Y80f25). πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ #FirstGen #VermontZen Website: www.jasonlyall.com

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10.10.2023
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Latest posts by Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall

One neglected cost of the war in Iran: the US is revealing a ton of its once-secret military capabilities to foreign adversaries like China and Russia. The longer the war drags on, the more chance for observation, and the greater the likelihood of devising countermeasures

10.03.2026 16:28 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE.

In their remarks, neither Pete Hegseth nor Dan Caine this morning addressed the girls school that was bombed.

They did not get A SINGLE QUESTION about it from people they called on in the room loaded with right-wing hacks.

10.03.2026 12:36 πŸ‘ 3467 πŸ” 973 πŸ’¬ 185 πŸ“Œ 40

I know our expectations for this administration are in the basement but it is INSANE they started a war without a plan for the Strait of Hormuz.

10.03.2026 10:50 πŸ‘ 1705 πŸ” 431 πŸ’¬ 70 πŸ“Œ 25
Preview
The grim choice facing the Trump administration: Economic or naval collapse? | CNN Business The Trump administration is currently trapped between the specter of a global economic recession and a naval catastrophe.

Wondering why the U.S. Navy doesn't simply go in and escort tankers through the Strait? 1/4 www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/b...

10.03.2026 11:42 πŸ‘ 69 πŸ” 25 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3

I think I'm numb now to Trump saying these things. But I don't think I'll ever get used to the sound of the audience laughing along with him

09.03.2026 22:48 πŸ‘ 593 πŸ” 125 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 4
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Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates The figure, accounting for the war’s first two days, is likely to intensify concerns in Congress that U.S. forces are churning through a scarce supply of advanced weaponry.

Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions alone, Pentagon estimates

(That's a lot of cancer research. And health care. And green energy. And schoolbooks)

10.03.2026 00:18 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2
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Unlike in Past Conflicts, Most Americans Oppose Iran Attacks

Unlike in Past Conflicts, Most Americans Oppose Iran Attacks

So far, most polls have found little support for the war, with approval for initiating attacks somewhere around 27-41% of Americans (depending on poll), far short of earlier wars

(To be expected given daily changing war aims + no prep)

10.03.2026 11:31 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
John Oliver (on right) gestures with his hands as he speaks. On left, a ProPublica headline from December 15, 2025 reads: β€œTrump Officials Celebrated With Cake After Slashing Aid. Then People Died of Cholera.” An article excerpt below says: "... turning rows red, yellow or green every few seconds, never asking a single question.”

John Oliver (on right) gestures with his hands as he speaks. On left, a ProPublica headline from December 15, 2025 reads: β€œTrump Officials Celebrated With Cake After Slashing Aid. Then People Died of Cholera.” An article excerpt below says: "... turning rows red, yellow or green every few seconds, never asking a single question.”

1/ On yesterday’s @lastweektonight.com about USAID, John Oliver cited several of our investigations.

First up was our reporting about how DOGE operatives had arbitrarily cut aid programs, in some cases by literally clicking through a spreadsheet: propub.li/4cCsSKP

10.03.2026 00:03 πŸ‘ 2146 πŸ” 677 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 23
Preview
Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates The figure, accounting for the war’s first two days, is likely to intensify concerns in Congress that U.S. forces are churning through a scarce supply of advanced weaponry.

Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions alone, Pentagon estimates

(That's a lot of cancer research. And health care. And green energy. And schoolbooks)

10.03.2026 00:18 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

I think I'm numb now to Trump saying these things. But I don't think I'll ever get used to the sound of the audience laughing along with him

09.03.2026 22:48 πŸ‘ 593 πŸ” 125 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 4

Bring back shame

09.03.2026 22:32 πŸ‘ 35 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Literally SchrΓΆdinger's war

09.03.2026 22:30 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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U.S. Tomahawk Hit Naval Base Beside Iranian School, Video Shows

New York Times now confirming @bellingcat.com's investigation that the US struck Iranian school, killing 175 civilians, mostly kids

09.03.2026 17:56 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
U.S. Tomahawk Hit Naval Base Beside Iranian School, Video Shows

New York Times now confirming @bellingcat.com's investigation that the US struck Iranian school, killing 175 civilians, mostly kids

09.03.2026 17:56 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

"Some say we've been at war for 47 years. Others say we're been at war since 1947. Details aside, we've always been at war with Oceania..."

08.03.2026 19:16 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

Friends, is this winning?

"One week into President Trump’s war on Iran, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy"

β€œWe are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production."

09.03.2026 02:23 πŸ‘ 77 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2

we definitely need a break from all the winning, that's for sure

09.03.2026 02:29 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

Friends, is this winning?

"One week into President Trump’s war on Iran, the most severe shock to energy markets since the 1970s is cascading through the world economy"

β€œWe are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production."

09.03.2026 02:23 πŸ‘ 77 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2

"Some say we've been at war for 47 years. Others say we're been at war since 1947. Details aside, we've always been at war with Oceania..."

08.03.2026 19:16 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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U.S. Military Warns Civilians in Iran to Stay Home Amid Continuing Airstrikes

Pentagon posting a message on X that "strongly urges civilians in Iran to stay at home" at a time when the entire country is under Internet blackout is chef's kiss of planning

Catch-22: Message also warns that US cannot guarantee your safety if you live near a military facility, so you better move

08.03.2026 18:51 πŸ‘ 83 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3
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WSJ: β€œ.. U.S. military investigators think American forces likely were responsible for the strike, according to a U.S. official ..”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

08.03.2026 17:39 πŸ‘ 1831 πŸ” 599 πŸ’¬ 140 πŸ“Œ 45
Video thumbnail

New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed, including children.

08.03.2026 17:20 πŸ‘ 3233 πŸ” 1682 πŸ’¬ 88 πŸ“Œ 188

Well, that should do it

08.03.2026 14:06 πŸ‘ 62 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Cover of today’s NYT Magazine:

08.03.2026 15:29 πŸ‘ 208 πŸ” 53 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm no fancy political consultant, but, hey, if you're in Dem comms, you should notice that Fox News panicked over Trump wearing a cheap Trump merch baseball cap to receive the bodies of soldiers he got killed for no reason he can articulate, and you should absolutely lean into that.

08.03.2026 14:52 πŸ‘ 7161 πŸ” 1859 πŸ’¬ 124 πŸ“Œ 45

Well, that should do it

08.03.2026 14:06 πŸ‘ 62 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Tehran residents warned of acid rain after oil storage attack Iran’s Red Crescent Society tells locals to avoid exposure as capital is engulfed in smoke

Tehran residents warned of acid rain after oil storage attack by Israel

08.03.2026 14:02 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

I can’t believe how stupid everything is

07.03.2026 17:57 πŸ‘ 6636 πŸ” 1983 πŸ’¬ 450 πŸ“Œ 94
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Recent U.S. Assessment Found an Attack on Iran Unlikely to Result in Regime Change

A report by the National Intelligence Council completed before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran assessed that even a large-scale military assault on the country would be unlikely to topple its theocratic government. @julianbarnes.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/w...

07.03.2026 23:09 πŸ‘ 544 πŸ” 160 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 3
Trump saluting a flag-draped casket carried by soldiers, wearing his standard ill fitting suit and a white baseball hat that says USA in gold letters visible from space

Trump saluting a flag-draped casket carried by soldiers, wearing his standard ill fitting suit and a white baseball hat that says USA in gold letters visible from space

I think it's great that the president put on his most solemnly branded baseball cap to receive the returning coffins of soldiers killed in the unnecessary war he launched to distract from his failing presidency and pedophilia scandal.

Look at that gold-like letting. Classy as shit.

07.03.2026 21:53 πŸ‘ 5706 πŸ” 1245 πŸ’¬ 374 πŸ“Œ 146