Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明

🇦🇺 announced today that it'll end anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 stainless steel sinks.

🇨🇳 will be pleased.

It could also be a sign that we'll soon see 🇨🇳 take concrete steps to remove enduring trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 live 🦞.

www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping...

www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping...

🇦🇺’s Anti-Dumping Commission delays to 4 Dec advice on removing measures on 🇨🇳 steel sinks.

Delay apparently caused by late submissions & “complexity of matters raised.”

🇨🇳 likely watching closely & could link issue to removal of restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞.
www.industry.gov.au/sites/defaul...

BCB in brief: Leaders meet and Australian anti-dumping measures poised to go What happened

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 leaders have met on the sidelines of the G20 & 🇦🇺 looks set to remove some anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 sinks.

What do these developments mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations & the long-awaited end of 🇨🇳’s trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞?

BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB predicts: Would a Coalition government block Chinese EVs? The prediction

The Albanese government has ruled out 🇦🇺 tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs & other restrictions on 🇨🇳 car technology.

But what would a Coalition government do if they win the 2025 federal election?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-predic...

BCB in brief: Australia’s trade minister in China as lobster losses reach $1.9 billion What happened

🇦🇺+🇨🇳 trade/commerce ministers met yesterday in Shanghai.

No mention of 🦞 in 🇨🇳's readout of the meeting, despite losses of $1.9 billion for 🇦🇺 industry since 2020.

What does the meeting mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations and 🇦🇺 🦞 + 🥩?

BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB data: China might still be blocking copper from Australia The latest numbers

Lots of talk about the potential end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion campaign against 🇦🇺.

Yet the latest trade data shows 🇦🇺’s flatlining copper ores & concentrates exports to 🇨🇳.

Is 🇨🇳 still imposing trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 copper ores & concentrates?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-data-c...

BCB in brief: Australia and China spar over human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet What happened

Beijing has fired back hard at 🇦🇺’s criticism of 🇨🇳’s human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet.

What’s likely to happen next? And what does this diplomatic dispute mean for the stabilisation of the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship?

BCB in brief:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Australia's live lobster news, China's quiet response, and quid pro quo questions Weeks of 16 September to 13 October 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (16 Sep to 13 Oct 2024):

1️⃣ Is it too soon to declare the end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion against 🇦🇺?

2️⃣ Why has 🇨🇳 responded so quietly to the 🦞 news?

3️⃣ Will 🇦🇺 now unwind anti-dumping measures or approve a 🇨🇳 investment?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...

BCB in Brief: Australian parliamentary delegation visits China This edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.

🇦🇺 MPs and senators are visiting 🇨🇳 on the first parliamentary delegation since November 2019.

What’s the significance of the visit and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Jerome Laxale MP on LinkedIn: Sunday in Beijing saw us visit some sights and also do a bit of work… Sunday in Beijing saw us visit some sights and also do a bit of work before a manic 3-4 days to come. Yesterday we got to see the Great Wall and the…

The 🇦🇺 parliamentary delegation to 🇨🇳 is slated to visit a solar & wind manufacturer in Beijing.

No details of which firm, but I wonder if we'll see 🇨🇳 companies like Beijing Energy Int. or Trina Solar get their sizeable investments in 🇦🇺 approved?
www.linkedin.com/posts/jerome...

Agree there’s little domestic gain. But Chinese gov & press have often (though not always & not consistently) highlighted significant examples of trade relationship repair.

Could just be that Beijing is waiting for a reciprocal “China-friendly” decision from Canberra before highlighting lobster.

Oddly, the 🇦🇺 PM's 🦞 news wasn’t mentioned in the 🇨🇳 gov leader meeting readout, 🇨🇳 MFA didn’t engage much on the issue & many major 🇨🇳 news outlets said little to nothing about it.

Doesn’t necessarily mean the 🇦🇺 PM was getting ahead of himself. But it's prima facie peculiar.

BCB in Brief: China to remove trade restrictions on Australian live lobster This edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.

🇦🇺 Prime Minister Albanese today announced an agreement w/ 🇨🇳 Premier Li for Beijing to remove its politically motivated trade restriction on 🇦🇺 🦞.

What does this mean for 🦞 exporters, 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 trade ties & the broader bilat relationship?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB in Brief: Chalmers in China, no tariffs on Chinese EVs, and a Taiwan Strait transit The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.

🇦🇺 Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been in 🇨🇳, 🇦🇺 has confirmed that it won’t impose tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs, and an 🇦🇺 navy vessel has transited the Taiwan Strait with 🇯🇵 + 🇳🇿.

What does all this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB in Brief: Foreign ministers meet and more bad news for Chinese investors in Australian critical minerals The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.

🇦🇺’s + 🇨🇳’s foreign ministers meet face-to-face for the 7th time since 2022 & 🇦🇺 signs up to a 🇺🇸-led push to create critical minerals supply chains that don’t rely on 🇨🇳.

What’re the implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Trina Solar submits plans for 2.6GWh BESS in Western Australia Trina Solar has submitted a planning application for a 660MW/2,640MWh BESS in Wellesley, in the Shire of Harvey, Western Australia.

🇨🇳's Trina Solar is planning a $400 million battery project in Western 🇦🇺.

One to watch for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties.

🇨🇳 has long complained about the treatment of its businesses. & Trina Solar has been linked to forced labour + project likely to attract 🇦🇺 scrutiny.
www.energy-storage.news/trina-solar-...

Wine exports, the latest on lobster, and one-China policies and principles Weeks of 8 to 28 July 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (8-28 July 2024):

1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🍷 exports to 🇨🇳 surge (alcoholic beverages exports in May 2024 were circa ✖️23 the value in May 2023)

2️⃣ When will 🇨🇳 lift restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞?

3️⃣ Debating the meaning of 🇦🇺’s one-China policy

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/wine-expor...

Live lobster exports, more one-China disinformation, and anti-Taiwan messages Weeks of 17-ish June to 7 July 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (weeks of 17-ish June to 7 July):

1️⃣ The long-delayed but still likely removal of 🇨🇳’s restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 spreads more disinformation about 🇦🇺’s one-China policy

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 diplomats in 🇦🇺 amplify anti-🇹🇼 messages

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/live-lobst...

BCB in Brief: Australia issues advisory about China's cyberattacks The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened Australia on 9 July issued an advisory about the threat posed by th...

🇦🇺 (w/ 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇨🇦, 🇳🇿, 🇩🇪, 🇰🇷 & 🇯🇵) has issued an advisory about 🇨🇳’s cyberattacks.

What’s the significance of this advisory and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The Premier's visit, live lobster update, and China's investments in critical minerals Fortnight of 3 to 16-ish June 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (3 to 16-ish June):

1️⃣ Wrap up of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s 🇦🇺 trip

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 likely to remove trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞 in coming weeks

3️⃣ Does 🇦🇺 have a de facto ban on 🇨🇳 investments in its critical minerals miners & refiners?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/the-premie...

BCB in Brief: Premier Li Qiang to visit Australia Next week’s edition of the free fortnightly BCB newsletter will include a wrap-up of Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia. In the meantime, this visit preview is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade...

What’s the significance of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s visit to 🇦🇺 later this week & what’s likely to happen next in the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Stabilisation despite drama, Australia's China choice on Ukraine, and politicising bilateral ties Weeks of 13 May to 2 June 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (13 May to 2 June):
1️⃣ 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship stabilisation despite drama
2️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🇨🇳 choice on 🇺🇦 gets sharper as 🇨🇳 businesses continue to aid 🇷🇺’s war effort
3️⃣ The Albanese government’s deceptive politicisation of 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/stabilisat...

BCB in Brief: Australia orders China-linked entities to divest from rare-earth miner The next edition of the free fortnightly BCB newsletter will be published later this week. In the meantime, the full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to...

🇦🇺 has ordered 🇨🇳 + 🇨🇳-linked entities & individuals to divest from the rare-earth elements miner Northern Minerals.

What does it say about 🇦🇺’s approach to 🇨🇳 + critical minerals & what does it mean for bilateral ties?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB in Brief: Red meat exporters regain trade access and Taiwan disinformation The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened The Australian government announced on 30 May that China had lifted...

The implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties of 🇨🇳’s removal of more trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 red meat exporters & 🇨🇳’s latest effort to spread disinformation about 🇦🇺’s engagement w/ 🇹🇼.

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

The bathymetric profile of 🇨🇳’s seaboard via Geoscience Australia.

Gives a sense of why 🇨🇳 might want to get its SSBNs on Hainan to the deeper waters of the northern South China Sea & why 🇦🇺’s AUKUS SSNs might be used to (among others things) help track 🇨🇳’s SSBNs there.

Australia's export optimism, more security tensions, and China's CPTPP numbers Fortnight of 29 April to 12 May 2024

Beijing to Canberra and Back (29 April to 12 May):
1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s optimism about the removal of 🇨🇳’s last two trade restrictions on 🦞 & 🥩
2️⃣ Moderate longer-term expectations about 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations
3️⃣ The uncompelling economic case for 🇨🇳 in the CPTPP
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...

BCB in Brief: Australian parliamentarians to attend Taiwan's presidential inauguration The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened On 16 May, the ABC reported that a group of up to four Australian f...

A group of 🇦🇺 federal parliamentarians are headed to 🇹🇼 for the 20 May presidential inauguration.

Here’s my assessment of why it matters & what it means for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

BCB in Brief: ABC report on China’s transnational repression The next edition of the free fortnightly BCB newsletter will be published later this week. In the meantime, the full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to...

🇨🇳 has responded to the Four Corners episode: It hopes 🇦🇺 media outlets will "take concrete actions to keep bilateral rels on a steady & sound course".

Here's my assessment of what this latest story of 🇨🇳’s transnational repression means for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...

Australian support for Ukraine Australian support for Ukraine

Today is the last opportunity to make a submission to the Senate inquiry into 🇦🇺's support for 🇺🇦:
www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentar...

BCB in Brief: Parliamentary cyberattack and dangerous military intercept The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened Australia revealed on 6 May that two days earlier a People’s Libera...

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has joined criticisms of 🇨🇳’s dangerous intercept of an 🇦🇺 helicopter.

Meanwhile, more details have emerged about past 🇨🇳 cyberattacks on 🇦🇺 parliamentarians.

What does this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...