The debate about AI progress involves many complex considerations and can be hard to follow. Today's newsletter gives an overview of incisive takes on the automation of AI R&D, METR's time horizon metric, and more.
www.update.news/p/how-fast-i...
After Maduro and Khamenei, Cuba's leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is expected to be next.
Polymarket estimates a 61% chance he is out by 30th June
From today's newsletter, also with links on India's mismeasured GDP, Orbán expected to lose, and more.
www.update.news/p/cubas-lead...
There are now more tech workers going from the US to Europe than the other way around
Teaching economics or social sciences?
Concepts like the unemployment rate or labor force participation can be tricky to explain clearly.
Our new Work & Employment page breaks these down with clear explanations and visualizations — all free to download and use in your classes and presentations.
Oh thanks, Gustav!
Thanks, I'll check it out
The debate on population decline is often confusing.
I distinguish between:
* The transition problem: a falling population affecting the age structure
* The size problem: fewer people being bad in itself
* The balance problem: decline in well-functioning countries
www.update.news/p/why-does-p...
Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables?
The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from.
www.update.news/p/trump-prov...
The company that Swedes trust the most is the government alcohol monopoly.
IKEA is a distant second.
Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables?
The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from.
www.update.news/p/trump-prov...
Americans have been unlucky to end up with someone like Donald Trump as president, as few people are that flawed.
But you shouldn't have to rely on luck. The president's power should be reined in.
Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic it will happen.
www.update.news/p/trump-prov...
Pride in being American and support for Israel used to be consensus views in the US, but in the last few decades, they’ve quickly become highly polarising.
While Democrats' views have shifted quickly, Republicans' haven’t changed.
www.update.news/p/when-the-e...
Swedish shootings are now down almost 70% in less than four years
www.update.news/p/why-is-cri...
In today’s newsletter: the immense power of negativity bias.
It leads us to exaggerate social and environmental problems and to underestimate Western power.
Correcting for this bias is central to a correct worldview.
www.update.news/p/when-the-e...
New post on Iran and Anthropic
* Polymarket estimates 52 percent chance of regime change this year
* Americans disapprove of the attack by 43 percent to 27 percent
* Consumers download Claude at record pace after Pentagon blacklists Anthropic
* And more
www.update.news/p/anthropic-...
The number of Americans living in Norway is overtaking the number of Norwegians living in the US.
The Nazis stopped Jewish doctors from practising, so thousands of them left the country (my great grandfather was one of them). So many left that this was a good natural experiment for estimating the causal effect of losing doctors on infant mortality (& thousands died)
Second Republic ftw
They sound made up
Though Americans with low education are more likely to be sure that God exists, they are less likely to actually attend religious services.
It may reflect the fact that they are less inclined to participate in community institutions in general.
www.update.news/p/technologi...
Like capitalism, technological transformation of life is part of the modern condition.
If you’re sceptical of technologies like life extension and AI, don’t be like the communists – who tried to abolish capitalism – but like the social democrats, who shaped it.
www.update.news/p/technologi...
South Korea's fertility rate edges up for the second year in a row, but is still just 0.80 children per woman.
www.update.news/p/links-sout...
Interesting, though that study is fairly old. Do you know if they've found the same pattern with newer and better systems?
Some economists argue that we should steer AI away from automation towards 'augmentation'.
In today's newsletter, I argue that this is a mistake.
Governments can't steer huge societal transformations in this way.
And even if we could stop automation, we shouldn't.
www.update.news/p/why-we-sho...
People work much less at night than they used to.
Since the 1970s, US night work has likely dropped more than 50%.
And it's not about changing job types, but simply about people getting richer.
Economic growth is a universal acid.
www.update.news/p/the-long-d...
People work much less at night than they used to.
Since the 1970s, US night work has likely dropped more than 50%.
And it's not about changing job types, but simply about people getting richer.
Economic growth is a universal acid.
www.update.news/p/the-long-d...
European politics has an interesting geographical pattern (as measured by the affiliation of the prime minister or president).
The interior is conservative, while the west coast has centrist and left-wing leaders.
www.update.news/i/188900711/...
Figures in academic papers are often laughably bad.
The other day I could only interpret a chart thanks to ChatGPT, which told me what the legend said and told me that you, feeble human, could read it too if you zoom in 400%.
