I've attended many climate COPs over the years and it seems some nations... *cough* ...are very well versed indeed in this now-declassified "Simple Sabotage Field Manual" first issued by the CIA in 1944
China has little incentive to position itself as a climate leader and risk assuming 'climate finance' obligations
But China is still channelling large sums into climate-relevant projects around the world
@katelogan.bsky.social + Lily Hartzell explain
backchannel1.substack.com/p/chinas-del...
The more finance, the sooner, the better.
Although the deadline is a decade away and the baseline may not be settled, rich countries can’t be complacent and must immediately get to work scaling up their support for adaptation.
Colleagues @worldresources.bsky.social mapped out ways to do this:
Recognising this, the goal calls for increasing the trajectory of adaptation finance provision. This addresses an issue of previous climate finance goals where funding grew slowly before jumping as the deadline loomed.
Hockey stick graphs are not usually good in climate! @michaelemann.bsky.social
Both options would lead to a higher share of adaptation finance as part of the $300B goal in 2035 (~32% or ~41%) compared to its share of climate finance under the $100B goal in 2022 (28% of $115.9B).
They're also well above projected 2030 levels.
In short, the new goal requires increase from BAU.
The decision doesn't specify a baseline year.
Likely options are 2022 (latest reporting year) or 2025 (end of prior doubling goal and year decision adopted).
2022 levels: $32.4Bx3=$97B
2025 figures aren't due til 2027. They'll likely be higher than 2022. If the doubling goal is met: ~$40Bx3=$120B
The new #adaptationfinance goal complements the international climate finance goals (NCQG) agreed at COP29 last year.
Because it was set within the framework of the #NCQG, developed countries take the lead, all #MDB outflows can count, and other countries are encouraged to contribute voluntarily.
Some thoughts on the new #adaptation #climatefinance goal agreed @cop30brazil.bsky.social:
It wasn’t the 2030 goal that developing countries wanted, but it does address the concern that adaptation finance would stagnate after 2025, when the previous Glasgow goal of doubling from 2019 levels is due🧵
One for @edzitron.com from @darrencullen.bsky.social
www.spellingmistakescostlives.com/single-post/...
#COP30 saw new 2035 climate targets, boosted adaptation funding, increased support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, and more progress on forest protection. It’s time to put these commitments into action. https://on.nrdc.org/4rodmHi
Yes, budgets are tight but Europe cannot afford to fail on #climate finance at #COP30, writes former German diplomat Norbert Gorissen... backchannel1.substac...
Climate finance is not charity; it is one of the most powerful investments that one can make in sovereignty, energy security, equity, and future competitiveness, @gwagner.com explains. bit.ly/3LKPLjz
2035 might seem like a long way off, but the institutional reforms, development of revenue mechanisms, and investment planning must begin now if we're to stay on track.
Governments need to be clear about what they want to do to keep up momentum to deliver $1.3 trillion.
The AGF experience shows what happens when governments fail to build a good process to take forward ideas to raise finance.
$1.3tn is a much bigger goal, so this time we can't let this process peter out.
The Roadmap is not perfect but it's a good basis to craft a balanced process to scale finance.
We should learn from history! Thanks @joethwaites.bsky.social for the good reminder. The new "Baku to Belem Roadmap" must be followed up, so that it becomes possible to scale up the funding. I hope for a decision at #COP30
2035 might seem like a long way off, but the institutional reforms, development of revenue mechanisms, and investment planning must begin now if we're to stay on track.
Governments need to be clear about what they want to do to keep up momentum to deliver $1.3 trillion.
The AGF experience shows what happens when governments fail to build a good process to take forward ideas to raise finance.
$1.3tn is a much bigger goal, so this time we can't let this process peter out.
The Roadmap is not perfect but it's a good basis to craft a balanced process to scale finance.
At COP29, a new set of climate finance goals were agreed.
The CMA asked the COP29 and 30 Presidencies 🇦🇿&🇧🇷 to produce a Baku to Belem Roadmap to $1.3T to set out how this new goal can be met.
The Roadmap was released last week and the big question @cop30brazil.bsky.social is what will happen now?
The AGF's 2010 report put forward a swathe of ideas, including solidarity levies on shipping and aviation.
COP16 "took note" of the report and then...nothing. No systematic effort to follow up any of the recommendations.
Fast forward to 2020 and developed countries fell short of the $100bn goal.
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes, a #climatefinance story:
After the $100bn climate finance goal was agreed in 2009, the UN Secretary General created a High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing (AGF) to study potential sources of revenue to meet the new goal, led by the PMs of 🇪🇹&🇳🇴
China and Saudi Arabia among nations receiving climate loans, analysis reveals
- Investigation by Guardian and @carbonbrief.org finds just a fifth of funds to fight global heating went to poorest 44 countries
#COP30 #climatecrisis
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
If you thought that climate change was all the fault of 'developed' countries, think again! That's NOT what data on GHG emissions since 1850 actually suggests. Old distinctions between developed and developing countries are no longer fit for purpose. Time to move on.
www.cgdev.org/blog/emissio...
Analysis by @joethwaites.bsky.social concludes this would mean a steep acceleration in the growth rate of adaptation finance
Developing countries ideally want this to be grant-based finance, so that would mean e.g. more development aid going to climate adaptation projects
bsky.app/profile/joet...
An influential team called the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance has laid out what it calls an "entirely feasible path" to mobilising $1.3tn by 2035.
This was the aspirational goal agreed at last year's COP.
Half of the finance in their pathway comes from the private sector.
g) Finally, the option to quantify the #ParisAgreement Art 9.4 aim for "balance" as 50:50 adaptation:mitigation.
Assuming the current proportion of public finance in the $300bn as in the $100bn (80%, $240bn), this would mean $120bn in 2035.
Very similar to tripling 2025 levels by 2035!
Then there's other tripling formulations:
c) Tripling 2022 levels (i.e. latest data) by 2030: lower baseline year, lower goal
d) Tripling 2025 levels by 2035: allowing a decade rather than five years
e) & f) Including private mobilized finance leads to ~$10bn higher goals in the delivery year.
a) Tripling the 2025 doubling by 2030 requires a 25% annual growth rate in #adaptation finance, well above the 15% seen between 2019 and 2022.
b) Continuing the 15% historic growth rate gets $77bn in 2030, then $157bn by 2035 due to compounding effects.
Probably unlikely given political situations
Countries at #COP30 are discussing a potential new #adaptationfinance goal.
I've updated the calculations from our August blog on potential options - removing some scenarios that haven't gained traction and adding others that have.
International climate finance drives climate action, but current efforts fall short of supporting developing countries as they transition and adapt to climate change. At COP30 later this month, world leaders must strengthen climate investments to secure a livable future.
"You can’t reboot the planet if you crash it" | My commentary on Bill Gates' flawed new climate missive for @thebulletin.org: thebulletin.org/2025/10/you-...
