Andrew Kruczkiewicz

AI Lost Out to Traditional Models in Forecasting NYC's Blizzard Two days before New York's biggest snowstorm in a decade began, forecasters were still unsure how much snow would fall. One traditional US model had consistently predicted a major hit, while newer art...

Climate scientist @wxpizza.bsky.social of @ncdp.bsky.social is watching how forecasters factor AI predictions into public storm warnings. "Even if models are considered better or high quality, decision-making is not necessarily simplified," he says. Via @bloomberg.com. https://bloom.bg/401O6dt

AI Lost Out to Traditional Models in Forecasting NYC's Blizzard Two days before New York's biggest snowstorm in a decade began, forecasters were still unsure how much snow would fall. One traditional US model had consistently predicted a major hit, while newer art...

Will AI weather models lead to better & faster extreme weather warnings? @wxpizza.bsky.social is watching how forecasters prioritize AI predictions before issuing public warnings about incoming storms. More models don't always mean enhanced decision-making. ow.ly/RWMj50YlyfC @bloomberg.com

La Californie est régulièrement victime d'inondations provoquées par le Pineapple Express, une rivière atmosphérique arrivant directement d'Hawaï. (Photo Shutterstock)

As part of its Moonshot Goal 8 Program, scientists address the question: Is it possible to tame river flooding? @wxpizza.bsky.social weighs in on this debate in a French article in @lesechosfr.bsky.social.
www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats...

A schematic representation of climate change impacts of relevance for the humanitarian sector, including (a) the timing of temperature exceedance, (b) the peak warming, and (c) the duration of overshoot.

As global temps appear likely to surpass Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target by 2050, governments and aid organizations aren't prepared for what this "climate overshoot" will mean for people and societies, warn NCDP's Andrew Kruczkiewicz, AC4's Joshua Fisher, and colleagues: https://bit.ly/3Xs23jK

How to prepare for "rare," "dangerous" ice expected from this weekend's storm This weekend's storm looks to have major impacts from both snow and ice from Texas all the way to New England.

Freezing rain is "by far the most dangerous" form of precipitation. When rain freezes on & around surfaces, that could mean cars are encapsulated in ice. Bridges & roadways can also accumulate & freeze over puddles, noted @wxpizza.bsky.social. ow.ly/TqyJ50Y2TYu @axios.com @climate.columbia.edu

2025 was one of three hottest years on record, scientists say Climate change worsened by human behavior made 2025 one of the hottest years ever recorded. Also, the three-year warming average has crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (or 2.7 Fahrenheit) si...

Places are seeing disasters they aren’t used to, extreme events are intensifying faster, and they are becoming more complex. That requires earlier warnings & new approaches to response and recovery, noted @wxpizza.bsky.social. ow.ly/tKnL50XSqQv @climate.columbia.edu @apnews.com

2025 with images of nature, research, and events inside the numbers.

✨ In 2025, we welcomed Alexis Abramson as our new dean, celebrated our graduating class of leaders, launched the first MS in Climate Finance in the US, all working to build a more just, sustainable future for our planet. 🦋 State of the Planet shares these 2025 highlights: https://bit.ly/3MSgjAh

The findings feature in a @esa.int –led study, published this week in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science to coincide with #COP30

Read the full study: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Read the news story: www.universityofgalway.ie/about-us/new...

Satellite-based Earth observation provides a unique and powerful tool in tracking climate adaptation, an international study involving University of Galway researchers has shown.
🔭👀🌍

Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators As climate change impacts are unfolding at greater speed, frequency and intensity, climate adaptation has become a necessary strategy for preventing degradation, averting disasters, and continuing improvement in the quality of life worldwide. The need for further action was acknowledged...

Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators
->Nature | More from Lil Dr Glen EcoChat at BigEarthData.ai

We’re passing a dangerous global warming threshold — but we can't give up Paris' major climate target has been dead for years. Now, people are finally acknowledging it. What do we do next?

Climate overshoot has huge implications for where we live, how we get our food, & our quality of life, yet despite these potentially cataclysmic shifts, there has been little work done on the human implications of this world, noted @wxpizza.bsky.social. ow.ly/5i6e50XQ4gV @climate.columbia.edu

Year in Review: Our Top Stories of 2025 A look back at the stories and videos that shaped our year at State of the Planet.

2025 was a historic year - making headlines for disastrous wildfires, catastrophic floods in TX, and deadly heatwaves in Europe and Asia. Read the top stories that shaped the State of Our Planet.

@climate.columbia.edu @wxpizza.bsky.social
news.climate.columbia.edu/2025/12/22/y...

We’re passing a dangerous global warming threshold — but we’re not doomed This major climate target has been dead for years. Now, people are finally acknowledging it.

It is becoming increasingly irresponsible to focus solely on the physical modeling elements of overshooting [2.7°F/1.5 °C of warming]. We need to start thinking about what the [human] scenarios look like for a post-1.5 °C world. @wxpizza.bsky.social. ow.ly/I3G850XNaTY @climate.columbia.edu @vox.com

Climate overshoot: What happens when the world gets too hot for too long? Passing 1.5 degrees will hurt people more. It shows how climate overshoot increases risks for food, health, cities, and fragile communities.

What happens when the world gets too hot for too long? Researchers at several institutions argue that climate overshoot will reshape risks for societies long before temperatures drift back down. ow.ly/F7za50XxEUV @wxpizza.bsky.social @climate.columbia.edu

The study is on "The human and social impacts of climate overshoot" - but the world is home to millions of other species that will also be severely impacted academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

A young person using a wheelbarrow to transport two canisters of water across an arid climate. Stock photo.

It seems increasingly likely that the world will overshoot the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal of 1.5°C of global mean temperature rise. A Perspective calls for research on the social and humanitarian impacts of climate overshoot. In PNAS Nexus: https://ow.ly/hNhX50Xx2pq

Flyer

The next @riskkan.bsky.social Compound Events webinar will be Tues 2 Dec at 11am UTC with a presentation from Xinyue Liu (NUS) on "Climate signals behind synchronized locust outbreak risks". For Zoom info: groups.google.com/u/1/g/riskka... or message @regclimo.bsky.social

... with the cost of doing nothing potentially creating tensions with the humanitarian principle of ‘do no harm', noted @wxpizza.bsky.social.

Societies Are Unprepared for the Human Costs of Climate Overshoot While scientists have made progress describing overshoot’s physical impacts, its humanitarian and social consequences need greater focus, say the authors.

✨ Societies are unprepared for the human costs of climate overshoot. Understanding how overshoot will affect people’s lives and livelihoods—before, during, and after disasters—must be part of climate planning, policy, and finance. ow.ly/L4LI50XtxVr @climate.columbia.edu

Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators

Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Earth observations for climate adaptation: tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation through satellite-derived indicators

✨ New paper: Examines the progress of climate adaptation towards global adaptation through satellite-derived indicators. ow.ly/kChb50Xq5By

@climate.columbia.edu @wxpizza.bsky.social @esa.int #COP30 #climateadaptation

Melissa Devastates Jamaica as Officials Assess Destruction

"Before, during and after extreme weather events such as hurricanes, it is very common for underserved areas to lose electricity and infrastructure access first, and then regain those services last," says @ncdp.bsky.social climate scientist @wxpizza.bsky.social. Via @nytimes.com.

Credits visual: Connors et al (2025). Earth Observations for Climate Adaptation: Tracking Progress Towards the Global Goal on Adaptation Through Satellite-Derived Indicators

How can we measure climate adaptation? New research presented by Sarah Connors at @adaptationfutures.bsky.social shows: Earth observation can improve risk assessment & make climate resilience measurable worldwide. A monitoring system for the Global Goal on Adaptation. adaptationfutures2025.com

🛰️ New publication examines the opportunities and challenges of using the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System for enhanced flood mapping for disaster risk and response. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS... @climate.columbia.edu @wxpizza.bsky.social #floodrisk

Living in an Era of Increasing Disasters Welcome to our digital hub for Climate Week NYC. September 20–29, 2025

▶️ Andrew Kruczkiewicz talks with Dana R. Fisher (aka the Apocalyptic Optimist) about the role of data, which is utilized for decision-making in building stronger communities facing climate disruption. https://ow.ly/qaKU50X77L3

Columbia Climate School, We Don't Have Time

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection-permitting modeling data set The current IDF c...

➡️ New publication on extreme precipitation modeling in the Midwest US, to enhance understanding of future distribution of #flashfloods. doi.org/10.1029/2024...

@wxpizza.bsky.social @climate.columbia.edu

There is a need for improving forecasts of both rapid intensification & its subsequent impacts. New data could strengthen modeling for both the meteorological variables – wind, precipitation, storm surge, social, & humanitarian impacts, noted @wxpizza.bsky.social. ow.ly/znfp50WPSCu

The Rising Threat to New York City’s Food System An increasing risk of flooding in Hunts Point could upend a large share of the city food distribution.

“What about these compound effects that we see quite a lot?”, noted @wxpizza.bsky.social, a flood specialist at the @climate.columbia.edu. “There needs to be systems in place for different types of floods, & also for situations where those floods can combine & co-occur.” ow.ly/fHa750WGA6j

Engrossing meeting of the minds at the workshop this week. Nine creative yet plausible storylines were developed and a whole range of new cxns made. Thanks again to all who attended, and especially those who made it happen. We're excited to see what this format & these ideas can catalyze!

Flash flood warnings are up in the US this year — Here’s where The 3,722 flash flood warnings that occurred between Jan. 1 and July 30 are a record high for the time period going back to 1986.

Warming atmosphere combined with factors like socioeconomic conditions, land use, and land cover increase the risk of flash floods, which will continue to grow and evolve in the coming years, says @ncdp.bsky.social climate scientist @wxpizza.bsky.social. Via @wvtm13.bsky.social.