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Chris Aylett

@chrisaylett

Research Fellow @chathamhouse focusing on the geopolitics of climate change and the energy transition. Views my own. https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/chris-aylett Header: 'A List of Antagonisms', Hiba Abdallah

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Latest posts by Chris Aylett @chrisaylett

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"Trump and Netanyahu killed every child in this photo.

Every. Single. One.

Not combatants.
Not militants.

Schoolkids from Minab, Iran."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mi...
x.com/sahouraxo/st...

09.03.2026 06:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 52 ๐Ÿ” 44 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
Preview
'Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming,' Says Blindfolded Administration The Trump administration can't foresee straight.

All wars create unexpected second and third-order effects. One of the appalling things about the Trump administration is that they donโ€™t seem to have thought through the expected effects either. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

09.03.2026 11:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 424 ๐Ÿ” 90 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 26 ๐Ÿ“Œ 12

And who knew that trying to enlist the Iraqi Kurds would piss off Turkey?

07.03.2026 21:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
The War on Iran The war on Iran launched a week ago by Israel and the United States is spiraling into a regional conflict with implications for the global economy. Adam and Cameron discuss. Also: Adam and Cameronโ€ฆ

Tooze absolutely seething about the outrageousness of this war is a tonic

pca.st/episode/7bdf...

08.03.2026 17:58 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

While we scramble to grasp the massive implications of the conflict in the Middle East, which worsens by the day, endangering us all, don't forget that this was a deliberate, extraordinarily reckless choice by the US and Israel

Everything happening now was easy to foresee

But they did it anyway

08.03.2026 17:51 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Russia weighs redirecting LNG exports from Europe to Asia-Pacific, media quote Novak as saying Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that he had โ€‹discussed with domestic energy companies the โ€Œpossibility of redirecting Russian supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from...

The fact that Putin is opportunistically threatening to redirect Europe-bound LNG, just as Trump's insane and reckless war jeopardises global supply and pushes up prices, should be enough to finally silence those still clinging to a future for gas on the continent

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

07.03.2026 15:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is America First in combination with Energy Dominance: starve the rest of the world, while forcing them to buy your LNG at inflated prices

07.03.2026 15:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 10 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
China's Domination in Solar Panels I Global Energy Security I End of Coal I Clean Energy Superpower
China's Domination in Solar Panels I Global Energy Security I End of Coal I Clean Energy Superpower YouTube video by Science Talk

Is China misleading the West โ€” or could it help save humanity from climate catastrophe? Why is it building so many solar panels? I asked these questions to @chrisaylett.bsky.social
๐Ÿ‘‰ youtu.be/nCweYICBmow

28.02.2026 21:41 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Not the first person to say this but in a world of cheap drones and short range missiles running your economy on Cote du Cretaceous Plankton juice (fossil fuel) from a live fire zone seems to be a bad idea. #EnergySky

01.03.2026 09:55 ๐Ÿ‘ 36 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

โ€œOur transition to EVs is aimed at ensuring our energy sovereignty,โ€ said Ethiopiaโ€™s state minister for transport and logistics. โ€œAs a net importer of fuel, we are affected by global supply and price fluctuations. In contrast, EVs use electricity, which we produce locally and can price ourselves.โ€

18.02.2026 18:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 28 ๐Ÿ” 13 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿคฎ deeply depressing

16.02.2026 12:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Trump revokes landmark EPA ruling that greenhouse gases endanger public health The White House calls it the largest deregulation in US history, but environmentalists say it will prove costly for Americans.

At once a brutal assault on global efforts to confront climate change, an attack on American public health, and an act of economic and strategic self-sabotage

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

13.02.2026 15:32 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

"Grateful coal lobbyists attending the ceremony honored [Trump] with an award for being the 'Undisputed Champion of Beautiful, Clean Coal'...the lobbyistsโ€™ equivalent of a Burger King crown for the commander-in-chief"

*chef's kiss*

12.02.2026 15:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Bundesbank boss: New reality calls for more EU debt Joachim Nagelโ€™s shift on eurobonds reflects todayโ€™s โ€œdifferent reality,โ€ he told POLITICO.

๐Ÿ‘€ the possibility of proper investment in the energy system transformation that the EU so desperately needs

Putin and Trump have done a remarkable job of making the politically impossible, possible, in the EU

www.politico.eu/article/bund...

12.02.2026 13:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Great thread. You can't have a high renewables and a high nuclear power system, unless you over-index on storage. You need to scale nuclear to a portion of always-on demand.

08.02.2026 11:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
Preview
Energy security after gas: Why Europe needs a fresh mindset | Euractiv The electricity grid is fast becoming the backbone of Europeโ€™s economy, climateย strategyย and security architecture. Without major, sustained investment in the grid, renewables cannot scale, electrific...

The EU is (mostly) serious about getting off volatile and easy-to-weaponize fossil fuels

Now it needs to get serious about electrification

This means investing much more in the grid and stepping up physical and cyber security

Me for @euractiv.com

www.euractiv.com/opinion/ener...

03.02.2026 13:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Energy security after gas: Why Europe needs a fresh mindset | Euractiv The electricity grid is fast becoming the backbone of Europeโ€™s economy, climateย strategyย and security architecture. Without major, sustained investment in the grid, renewables cannot scale, electrific...

[Opinion] #Energy - #Energy security after gas: Why #Europe needs a fresh mindset, by @chrisaylett.bsky.social | Euractiv
www.euractiv.com/opinion/ener...

03.02.2026 11:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Excited to announce the publication of my new book โ€“ Chinese Global Environmentalism โ€“ later this month!

The environment was once one of China's greatest weaknesses. It is now becoming a pillar of Chinaโ€™s global power.

www.cambridge.org/core/element...

02.02.2026 00:49 ๐Ÿ‘ 38 ๐Ÿ” 11 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
Preview
Q&A: After Greenland threats, how can Europe get off US gas? Researcher Chris Aylett talks to Climate Home News about North Sea wind potential and who has the power in the US-Europe gas relationship

Had a good chat with @joeloclimate.bsky.social from @climatechangenews.com about Europe's dependence on American LNG and big plans for wind power and electricity interconnectors in the North Sea

www.climatechangenews.com/2026/01/28/q...

28.01.2026 15:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
The Legislation
Upon winning a general election, a Reform government under Prime Minister Nigel Farage will:
1) Leave the ECHR
2.) Repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights.
3.) Pass The Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill:
This Bill will:
Create a legal duty to remove illegal migrants for the Home Secretary
The Bill opens with a blunt obligation for the Home Secretary: "The Secretary of State shall ensure the removal from the United Kingdom of each person who does not have extant leave to remain and is not an Irish citizen or otherwise protected by regulations made under this Act."
The following parts of the legislation are introduced on an emergency basis, with an in-built sunset clause after 5 years:
Disapply the 1951 Refugee Convention, the UN Convention Against Torture, the Council of Europe Anti-Trafficking Convention (ECAT)
Derogation is justified under the Vienna Convention doctrine of state of necessity: Britain faces a national emergency in which uncontrolled illegal migration undermines public order.
These treaties will otherwise be used by activist judges to frustrate deportations, even after the repeals of the HRA and ECHR.
Create Detention Power Without Hardial Singh Constraints
This means illegal migrants can be detained until they are deported. Activist lawyers routinely use Hardial Singh to secure their client's bail, after which the client absconds.
If you came to the UK illegally, you are ineligible for asylum. End of story
All asylum claims will become inadmissible if made by a person within the Act's scope. If you came to the country illegally, you are ineligible for asylum in the UK. This strips the Home Office, the immigration tribunals and the higher courts of jurisdiction to even consider claims. A claim that cannot be considered cannot suspend removal and therefore, cannot delay a flight.
Re-entering after deportation and destroying ID becomes a serious criminal offence
Re-entry after deportation will beโ€ฆ

The Legislation Upon winning a general election, a Reform government under Prime Minister Nigel Farage will: 1) Leave the ECHR 2.) Repeal the Human Rights Act and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. 3.) Pass The Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill: This Bill will: Create a legal duty to remove illegal migrants for the Home Secretary The Bill opens with a blunt obligation for the Home Secretary: "The Secretary of State shall ensure the removal from the United Kingdom of each person who does not have extant leave to remain and is not an Irish citizen or otherwise protected by regulations made under this Act." The following parts of the legislation are introduced on an emergency basis, with an in-built sunset clause after 5 years: Disapply the 1951 Refugee Convention, the UN Convention Against Torture, the Council of Europe Anti-Trafficking Convention (ECAT) Derogation is justified under the Vienna Convention doctrine of state of necessity: Britain faces a national emergency in which uncontrolled illegal migration undermines public order. These treaties will otherwise be used by activist judges to frustrate deportations, even after the repeals of the HRA and ECHR. Create Detention Power Without Hardial Singh Constraints This means illegal migrants can be detained until they are deported. Activist lawyers routinely use Hardial Singh to secure their client's bail, after which the client absconds. If you came to the UK illegally, you are ineligible for asylum. End of story All asylum claims will become inadmissible if made by a person within the Act's scope. If you came to the country illegally, you are ineligible for asylum in the UK. This strips the Home Office, the immigration tribunals and the higher courts of jurisdiction to even consider claims. A claim that cannot be considered cannot suspend removal and therefore, cannot delay a flight. Re-entering after deportation and destroying ID becomes a serious criminal offence Re-entry after deportation will beโ€ฆ

The Operational Plan
We will create an enforcement unit called UK Deportation Command, including an Illegal Migrant Identification Centre - harnessing cutting edge data fusion
A Reform government will create a cutting edge enforcement data centre to relentlessly identify and detain all illegal migrants in the UK. Using powers granted by the new legislation, it will automatically share data between the Home Office, NHS, HMRC, DVLA, banks and the police. It will power bulk warrants, including mandatory biometric capture during any police encounter. Each power addresses a failure mode observed over the past decade - for example, banks and GP surgeries unaware of a customer's status, or overstayers slipping through because a warrant covered only a single property.
Secure Immigration Removal Centres (SIRC) will be built rapidly to detain up to 24,000
Detention capacity for up to 24,000 will be created within 18 months. The Home Office will build Secure Immigration Removal Centres. This will be modular accommodation built in remote parts of the country. Conditions are basic but not punitive: prefabricated two-person rooms, canteen catering, on-site medical suites. Robust perimeters and internal movement controls prevent escapes.
This enables detention-on-arrest: no more bail. This capacity would allow for up to 24,000 illegal migrants to be deported per month.
Initial Voluntary Return Window
A six-month Assisted Voluntary Return window precedes large-scale raids. Illegal migrants will be offered a financial incentive to self-deport. An app will be launched to facilitate this.
The Deportation Flights
The Home Office will scale up charters to 5 flights per day. To guard against last-minute aircraft unserviceability, the RAF will keep one Voyager aircraft on six-hour 'hot-spare' readiness. If a commercial charter breaks down, detainees can still be flown out that night, preserving operational integrity. The legal reset will mean activist lawyers will no longer be able prevenโ€ฆ

The Operational Plan We will create an enforcement unit called UK Deportation Command, including an Illegal Migrant Identification Centre - harnessing cutting edge data fusion A Reform government will create a cutting edge enforcement data centre to relentlessly identify and detain all illegal migrants in the UK. Using powers granted by the new legislation, it will automatically share data between the Home Office, NHS, HMRC, DVLA, banks and the police. It will power bulk warrants, including mandatory biometric capture during any police encounter. Each power addresses a failure mode observed over the past decade - for example, banks and GP surgeries unaware of a customer's status, or overstayers slipping through because a warrant covered only a single property. Secure Immigration Removal Centres (SIRC) will be built rapidly to detain up to 24,000 Detention capacity for up to 24,000 will be created within 18 months. The Home Office will build Secure Immigration Removal Centres. This will be modular accommodation built in remote parts of the country. Conditions are basic but not punitive: prefabricated two-person rooms, canteen catering, on-site medical suites. Robust perimeters and internal movement controls prevent escapes. This enables detention-on-arrest: no more bail. This capacity would allow for up to 24,000 illegal migrants to be deported per month. Initial Voluntary Return Window A six-month Assisted Voluntary Return window precedes large-scale raids. Illegal migrants will be offered a financial incentive to self-deport. An app will be launched to facilitate this. The Deportation Flights The Home Office will scale up charters to 5 flights per day. To guard against last-minute aircraft unserviceability, the RAF will keep one Voyager aircraft on six-hour 'hot-spare' readiness. If a commercial charter breaks down, detainees can still be flown out that night, preserving operational integrity. The legal reset will mean activist lawyers will no longer be able prevenโ€ฆ

The UK version of โ€œProject 2025โ€ by the Reform party includes a British ICE, a concentration camp for 24,000 people, mass surveillance and withdrawing from refugee, anti-torture and anti-trafficking conventions.

Itโ€™s on their website. Thatโ€™s how comfortable fascists are in the UK today.

26.01.2026 13:22 ๐Ÿ‘ 5274 ๐Ÿ” 3121 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 18 ๐Ÿ“Œ 380

Worth remembering when looking at the horrific scenes in the US right now that both Reform and the Tories have pledged to bring in ICE-style organisations to the UK if they win power

24.01.2026 22:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 3204 ๐Ÿ” 1515 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 98 ๐Ÿ“Œ 62
Two black t-shirts. One says 'Wind and solar and batteries and Flex'. The other says 'EVs and heat pumps and installers and grids'.

Two black t-shirts. One says 'Wind and solar and batteries and Flex'. The other says 'EVs and heat pumps and installers and grids'.

Europe's strategy for energy sovereignty on two t-shirts.

22.01.2026 13:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 70 ๐Ÿ” 21 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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As ever, Private Eye sees through the way the usual-suspect media are happy to swallow wholesale and then amplify the BS from Tufton St lobbyists when it comes to net-zero

And, as ever, @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org made all these points the moment the coverage landed

22.01.2026 10:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 110 ๐Ÿ” 64 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Trump: "I haven't been able to find any windfarms in China."

Reality: China has far more windfarms than any other country on Earth

21.01.2026 16:13 ๐Ÿ‘ 568 ๐Ÿ” 219 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 25 ๐Ÿ“Œ 21

This is my 30th year as a journalist.

But I still continue to be shocked daily at the extent to which these same 'news'papers revel in wilful misinformation in order to relentlessly promote the ideology/interests of their senior editors and owners.

An utter disregard and contempt for their readers

19.01.2026 10:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 244 ๐Ÿ” 95 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5

Updated for 2026

18.01.2026 17:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 159 ๐Ÿ” 54 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5

oh wow! look forward to seeing it

16.01.2026 17:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Some petrol stations set to stop selling diesel fuel by 2030 London is expected to be the UKโ€™s first city with no diesel cars

The UK may soon face one of the challenges of the 'mid-transition' predicted by @gruberte.bsky.social and @shastingssimon.bsky.social

Drivers of conventional cars (skewing lower-income) increasingly unable to access fuel

Needs coordination to avoid backlash

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-...

16.01.2026 16:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 4 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Donald Trumpโ€™s first Venezuela oil sale deal goes to megadonorโ€™s company Senior Vitol trader met US president at White House last week and gave millions to his re-election campaign

Trump's donors from the fossil fuel industry starting to see a nice return on their investment

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

16.01.2026 09:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
US control of Venezuelaโ€™s oil may not be the bonanza that Trump expects Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.

The Venezuelan oil bonanza promised by President Trump has, so far, received a muted public response from the American oil and gas corporations.

Read @chrisaylett.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham Houseโคต๏ธ

13.01.2026 13:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 15 ๐Ÿ” 10 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 3