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Ben Vincent, DPhil

@benvincent

Data Scientist | Bayes | Causal reasoning | Python + Julia | Ex-academic | #MMT drbenvincent.github.io

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19.09.2023
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Latest posts by Ben Vincent, DPhil @benvincent

Calling it a “budget crisis” tends to make the destruction of capacity—closures, understaffing, deferred maintenance—appear as the responsible form of settlement, which is the upside-down austerity world that neoliberal governance has taught us to accept.

5/

24.02.2026 16:00 👍 113 🔁 19 💬 1 📌 1

Good point, I think I meant ‘different’. Didn’t mean to imply they are mutually exclusive.

Even with a JG there will be people who can’t work, so I don’t think the JG advocates want them to starve.

19.02.2026 18:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

If you’ve been interested in universal basic income, then you need to know about this alternative… the Job Guarantee.

Read the details of how it would work here.

19.02.2026 08:01 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Paywalled article?

09.02.2026 17:31 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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Home | MMTUK MMTUK is an independent research organisation producing evidence-based economic analysis informed by Modern Monetary Theory. Explore our articles, education resources and community.

MMTUK has launched

We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.

Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.

mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics

06.02.2026 11:56 👍 15 🔁 11 💬 1 📌 3

Brain metaphor and brain theory. youtu.be/zhmmNunhpLI?...

07.02.2026 19:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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What is a computer? youtu.be/HgCt8Igelco?...

07.02.2026 19:34 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I’d the brain a computer? Straw man argument. youtu.be/m3-mGbXOhVY?...

07.02.2026 19:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Is the brain a computer: wrong level of analysis youtu.be/kNbTTAEGEKw?...

07.02.2026 19:32 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Ex-cognitive scientist faculty here. This is hotly contested, and most people I know think that that article is a joke.

07.02.2026 19:26 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
We Need To Talk About AI...
We Need To Talk About AI... YouTube video by Cool Worlds Podcast

If you’ve previously written off LLM’s as hype-based hallucinators, you might be forgiven, based on the early models.

But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.

youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...

02.02.2026 07:52 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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This is the End of the US Global Monetary System | Prof Steve Keen Get more from Prof Steve Keen on Patreon

Relevant and interesting…
www.patreon.com/posts/148768...

01.02.2026 19:55 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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25.01.2026 19:39 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Why Our Mental Models of the State are Broken There is a common cognitive trap: you feel you understand how something works, until you are asked to explain it. Psychologists call this the illusion of explanatory depth (Rozenblit & Keil, 2002)…

Here’s a post I wrote about The Illusion of Explanatory Depth drbenvincent.medium.com/the-illusion... (but also sneaks in some #mmt)

24.01.2026 10:37 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
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Not an Economic Question but a Question about Economics Why Can’t We Discuss MMT?

Not an Economic Question but a Question about Economics
open.substack.com/pub/susanbor...

19.01.2026 04:11 👍 5 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

When I hear “LLMs are just guessing words,” I think “Bayes is just arithmetic.” True at one level - yet it misses the emergent capabilities.

18.01.2026 20:05 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Scotland’s Economics Festival is a unique, public-facing celebration of economic thinking – designed to challenge, inform, and inspire. Edinburgh 19th- 21st March 2026. www.scoteconfest.org/. Tickets are available now. Speakers include 🎤

04.01.2026 16:59 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Introducing: The Bayesian Marketing Analytics Course by PyMC Labs.

Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.

Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY

05.01.2026 14:03 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Amazing 🤩 Will try to review and provide input as family holiday time allows.

20.12.2025 17:21 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

It’s not yet in CausalPy, but I’m hoping @nathanielforde.bsky.social might implement it in 2026 🤞

10.12.2025 04:13 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

It’s a complex topic, with multiple schools of thought. But MMT seems the most engaged with empirically understanding the actual mechanics of how money works.

07.12.2025 16:32 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Commercial Banks Money Versus Government Money - Which is 'Top Dog'? What Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) reveals about bank money, government money and the interaction between the two

MMT has a different view compared to the standard story open.substack.com/pub/mmt101/p...

07.12.2025 15:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I’m not convinced by the fractional reserve story. Commercial bank money comes with a corresponding liability so there’s no net increase in the private sector.

06.12.2025 20:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

There’s also high powered central bank reserve money. But you are right, there are layers and hierarchies of money, so it’s not like so money comes from the central bank. But I’m absolutely not convinced governments need to go and find money before they can spend it.

06.12.2025 20:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Genuine question. Where do you think money comes from?

06.12.2025 19:33 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
04.12.2025 13:15 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
CausalPy - causal inference for quasi-experiments — CausalPy 0.6.0 documentation

You may be interested in CausalPy, a package focused on so three major quasi experimental methods. Feature requests, bug reports welcome.

causalpy.readthedocs.io/en/latest/

27.11.2025 16:06 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

My EV does 3.1–4 miles per kWh and my off-peak rate is 8.5p/kWh. That’s about 2.13–2.74p per mile in electricity.
Add the new 3p/mile tax and it jumps to 5.13–5.74p per mile – more than doubling my running costs (about 2.1–2.4× higher).
Punishing EV’as is a bizarre policy choice.

26.11.2025 14:08 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Note on household analogies

Note on household analogies

The very first thing the Prime Minister does is use the household budget metaphor.

A metaphor - this report into BBC coverage - said could be "easily misleading."

Why is the government trying to mislead the country?

26.11.2025 12:05 👍 615 🔁 200 💬 25 📌 18
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#CausalPy 0.6.0 adds Bayesian Propensity Score Enhancements!

Flexible spline adjustments, improved joint modeling, and an example notebook make scoring more robust, showing how design thinking complements #Bayesian estimation.

🧩Try it on Github: dub.link/9jkcRao

21.11.2025 14:30 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0