@wjhurst
Chong Hua Professor of Chinese Development University of Cambridge, Faculty of Asian & Middle Eastern Studies Co-Director, Centre for Geopolitics Senior Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) @rusi.bsky.social
🎙️ New episode out now – Explorations on War
@wjhurst.bsky.social and Caroline Baxter explore critical vulnerabilities shaping modern security, such as climate change, AI, and quantum technologies
🎧 Listen to the full episode:
Apple bit.ly/ExploApple
Spotify bit.ly/ExploSpot
YouTube bit.ly/4rroMc5
The issue with switching to renewables (or nuclear) is that the transition is hugely expensive and takes a long time. We're seeing this in the UK. Also, not all gas goes for electricity generation. Systems like home heating are much slower to shift away from fossil fuels.
Coming in 12 Hours!
Newly released footage shows an ICE agent killing Rubin Ray Martinez, 23, in his car in Texas.
"He was shot at point-blank range through his side window by an ICE agent who was in no danger."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Donald Trump is pointing to missions in Iran “as if the excellence with which they have been conducted somehow constitutes a strategy in itself,” @radiofreetom.bsky.social argues.
New Episode Monday!
New Episode Monday!
Pope Leo names former envoy to Duterte's Philippines as ambassador to US reut.rs/4liHrFA
Indonesia to file suspension of concessions against EU on palm oil dispute in WTO reut.rs/4rX3T9S
If you're looking for an academic Chinese Politics job, apply to this one:
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQT568/a...
If you're looking for an academic Chinese Politics job, apply to this one:
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQT568/a...
Please spread the word widely and, if fitting, apply!
(deadline is tight)
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQT568/a...
🎙️Explorations on War - Episode 9 drops Monday
In this episode, professor @wjhurst.bsky.social and Caroline Baxter discuss the vulnerabilities shaping modern security, from climate change and AI to quantum technologies
➡️ Past episodes:
bit.ly/4uenjZ6
A short thread on the #war in #Iran:
A short thread on the #war in #Iran:
The #UnitedStates is placing a series of extraordinarily risky bets in undertaking this military action against #Iran. None of them come with guarantees (and the odds are far from clear) — and all carry profound consequences.
1/8
🧵 unrolled:
🚨 BREAKING: The U.K. will allow Washington to use British bases to destroy Iran's missiles and its ability to fire them at Britain's allies in the gulf, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced tonight.
Full story: www.politico.eu/article/keir...
Either way, innocent civilians — in Iran, likely in Israel, and possibly across the wider Middle East or even further afield — will bear immense suffering beyond what we’ve already seen. Only history may reveal whether the risks and known human costs were “worth it.”
8/End
But if even any one of these assumptions proves incorrect, the costs could be catastrophic — regionally and potentially globally. Escalation, economic shock, long-term instability, and even a wider war are all possible outcomes.
7/8
If all four bets pay off, the geopolitical shift could be enormous in favour of the United States and its allies. It would potentially reshape power balances, incentives, and constraints across the Middle East for decades.
6/8
Bet #4: that whatever replaces the current regime will be better from Washington’s perspective — not chaos, civil war, fragmentation, or an even harder-line successor driven by militant factions or remnants of the security apparatus.
5/8
Bet #3: that without meaningful external backing, Iran’s regime will crumble under airstrikes, missile attacks, and pressure short of “boots on the ground.” History suggests regime collapse is rarely so linear or predictable.
4/8
Bet #2: that no other major power — such as #Russia or #China — is willing or able to come to Iran’s aid quickly or effectively enough to create a prolonged stalemate or wider war. Great-power dynamics matter.
3/8
Bet #1: that Iran will not be able to retaliate in a devastating way — whether directly, through regional proxies, cyber operations, or actions that threaten energy flows and global markets. That’s a high-stakes and potentially dangerous assumption.
2/8
