A Complete Failure of Winter Across the West — And What It Means for the Rest of 2026
From record‑breaking heat to a snowpack crisis unfolding across the entire West, this “winter” has rewritten the rules — and the ripple effects are only beginning to surface: bouldercast.com/a-complete-f... #Cowx
Absurd heat! Despite our best efforts, the monster heat dome is bound to be "undersold" by the meteorology community. Why? Because intensity like this is almost never seen. This thing has the potential to be Epic for Mid-March, and not in a good way… 1/
Let’s talk about Hawaii. We are looking at a relentless rain event there due to a stalled atmospheric river. This movie has 3 parts, each spanning 10 days. The first two parts are precipitable water showing the atmospheric river in which the islands are 200%+ the majority of the time… 1/
Superb—and *very* unsettling—roundup from @weatherwest.bsky.social. The imminent SW heat wave (likely the most intense for March on record) will involve similar dynamics to the June 2021 scorcher in the PacNW. This landscape-parching heat may set the stage for serious fire/drought trouble by summer.
The Arizona March monthly temperature record is 104F set at two stations in 2004. The National Blend of Models (NMB) has several places exceeding that value in 7-10 days.
Temperature forecast for the next 10 days at Phoenix
How's about this for a wacko record? PHX all-time record March high is 100F, set one time. The current NBM forecast has PHX hitting 101F or higher (at least) 5 days in a row, topping out at 106F.
Corpus Christi may run out of water next year, and they are praying for a hurricane to hit and dump 20-30” of rain. The water loss “impacts are going to be felt tremendously through the state, if not internationally.”
Drought is climate change’s biggest threat.
A remarkable 42% of the Contiguous U.S. had record Dec-Feb 500 mb heights.
500 mb standardized departures for the Dec-Feb period. There's a +3.5 std. dev. contour over the 4-Corners region.
Map snapshot depicting the predicted relative anomalousness of 500mb GPH from the ECMWF ensemble over the Western U.S. in about a week from now. A large anomalous ridge, featuring a huge region of bright orange and red colors (depicting extremely high positive GPH anomalies) is centered right in the middle of the map.
Current indications are that late spring or even mid-summer-like (in some places) heat will arrive and persist for a fairly extended duration across a wide swath of the American West, centered on the Four Corners to Southern CA region. This will induce rapid melt of remaining snowpack.
Map snapshot depicting the predicted relative anomalousness of surface temperatures from the ECMWF ensemble over the Western U.S. in about a week from now. A a huge region of bright orange and red colors (depicting extremely high warm temperature anomalies) is centered right in the middle of the map, and covers essentially the entire region.
Lots of buzz online about an upcoming major March heatwave for the American SW & California. And in this case, it does indeed appear increasingly likely than an extremely anomalous and even record-breaking heatwave may envelop much of the SW about a week from now.
Over the last 13 years, polar-orbiting satellites captured the midwinter snowpack across the Western United States.
This winter season is a record low for snow across the region.
Pretty amazing in SoCal. Downtown LA may hit 100° on Friday! That’s crazy. Checked the data. The earliest 100 was April 4th. So IF this happens, it would be 3 full weeks ahead of the earliest 100. Also obviously the hottest March temp on record in LA as well (97 is the monthly record).
My latest for @science.org on the fraught future of NCAR as NSF's deadline nears. It can still go so many ways.
I'm so sorry for your loss. May her memory be a blessing.
The "Lost Science" series from the NYT is an infuriating and heartbreaking must-read. What a security disaster -- more Americans are in harms way because of the loss of programs like this one:
The IBHS study is fascinating and grim reading. People questioning the value of veg management (zone 0) to protect communities should take a hard look at it. Preventing home ignition is a systems problem. Fix one thing (home hardening) but not the other (vegetation), you don’t get what you want.
Map showing locations where recent 24 hour precipitation exceeded estimated 100yr recurrence interval thresholds. There are many such locations east of Puget Sound in Washington. Via Russ Schumacher's Precipitation Systems Research Group website (https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/precip_monitor/precip_monitor.php?atlas=atlas14&dataset=stage4&ari=1000y&duration=48h).
The fact that parts of Washington are seeing record-breaking flooding this week is not surprising given that 1) many locations saw record 24hr precipitation (well above 100yr ARI) & 2) near-record temperatures *simultaneously* (no snow in mtns, so all precip became runoff). #WAwx
Are you one of the 38% of U.S. households with a gas or propane stove? If so, spend the $50 needed to get an induction stove! New study: "if you use a gas stove, you’re often breathing as much nitrogen dioxide pollution indoors from your stove as you are from all outdoor sources combined.”
After this weekend's racist attacks on the EU, I've written a column about the moral obligation to stop posting on X.
Oh no, wait, I wrote it *two years ago* when it was blatantly obvious what was going on and how it would get much much worse.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
A mannequin with the dress, short sleeved bodice and long skirt with train, white silk satin with black velvet appliqué (I think) in a wrought iron fence-like motif.
Evening dress
Designed by House of Worth
Circa 1898-1900
A favorite!
Source: The Met, https://buff.ly/2RSa5AQ
#victorian #victorianfashion #fashionhistory
A view of the back of an1890s dress showing the bodice with clusters of oranges woven into the fabric. It has black lace on the sleeves and a high collar
A detail of the front of the bodice of the orange patterned 1890s dress showing black lace at the neckline and the detailed fruit
Sleeve detail of the 1890s orange patterned dress which has a yellow silk trellis work trim with black lace
Full length view of the front of the 1890s dress patterned with oranges and trimmed with black lace
It took a highly sophisticated Jacquard weave to create the incredibly detailed oranges that form the fabric of of this early 1890s dress. You can almost smell the citrusy peel. There so many details to observe here, the pattern matching, the cuff trim, the drama! #V&A #FashionHistory 🗃️🪡
Someone on Twitter writes: "I've been thinking a lot of the left-wing valorisation of personal ugliness. It's partly ordinary social rebellion ("looking nice" is conformist; think of punks and skinheads and other groups who make themselves look offensive for its shock value). It's hard to give examples because I don't like singling people out for their looks. But the more cultish trans activists seem to believe that the uglier a man when wearing women's clothes, make-up etc. the better. (Accepting the ugly is a sign of commitment to the cause.) And partly, I think, it's about victimhood culture. The uglier you are, the more you are to be pitied and that's a currency you can use. Hence the celebration of obesity (though I think Ozempic will end this eventually) and of all kinds of defiant unsexiness."
It's true that progressives valorize "ugliness." But I think this person doesn't interrogate this position enough and thus lands at the wrong conclusion.
Let me give you my perspective on ugliness. 🧵
Gift of The New York Historical Society, 1979
Suit
https://botfrens.com/collections/223/contents/1381806
ICYMI: Staggering rainfall in Vietnam in the past week. Bach Ma mountain near Hue City recorded a one-day rainfall of 1,740 mm (68.50 in). This is unofficially the second highest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally.
Record: 1,825 mm / 71.85 in La Réunion; January 7-8, 1966
(1/2)
Smart move Jamaica. Climate catastrophe bond about to pay off.
“They divide Jamaica into boxes. Each box has a different central pressure that needs to be breached, so the storm needs to have a lower pressure than those boxes.”
www.cbc.ca/news/science...
NOAA aerial imagery is coming in. Hurricane Melissa literally turned western Jamaica from green to brown. Vegetation damage is immense — recovery will take years.
My perhaps controversial assessment is that when you share the propaganda of your enemies to call it out or to mock it… you’re still spreading their propaganda and maybe doing exactly what they hope you’ll do.
Screenshot from evening update from NOAA's National Hurricane Center regarding dire impacts from Melissa in Jamaica and Haiti.
This evening's update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center on #Melissa is ominous, and explicitly mentions: "catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding...extensive infrastructural damage...and potentially prolonged isolation of communities" in both Jamaica & Haiti.
Map from ECMWF model ensemble depicting much above average temperatures across the entire western U.S. in early November.
Map from ECMWF model ensemble depicting a strong western U.S. ridge (signified by a blob of higher-than-average 500mb GPH) across the entire region by early November.
Following today's light (to locally moderate) rainfall in northern California, a strong and persistent ridge appears likely to build across the American West and to linger for some time to come--bringing dry and much warmer than average conditions well into November. #CAwx #CAfire
