Still notable political bias in inflation expectations, but expectations are broadly rising and Independents' views are surging:
▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%
h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Even Republicans' sentiment is deteriorating noticeably. Charts from @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Egg prices are at a record, now topping $7 a dozen via @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social
Here's how monthly mortgage payment for buying a $500K home have changed over time. Remember: Fed cuts target short-term rates, but mortgage costs also hinge on inflation expectations, long-term Treasury yields, and global investor demand—so they don't always move in lockstep.
Bitcoin once again leads the pack—here’s a snapshot of my global annual multi-asset returns matrix:
The percentage of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components with month-over-month increases exceeding their 5-year average has dropped significantly.
Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}
BLS: The Importance of Equitable and Timely Access to Data
bls.gov/blog/
Wonder who's watching the U.S. tariff schedule in real time? Wonder no more!
With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>
This week's US Treasury auction schedule via WSL AUCTIONS:
We’ve just launched an exciting new feature in ECAN – the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index, now with sector-level contributions!
Another noteworthy UMich Sentiment Index chart: The percentage of respondents offering unsolicited positive or negative comments about economic policy news.
Breaking Down the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:
Arguably the most insightful politics and economics chart available—inflation expectations by political party affiliation—was just updated by the University of Michigan:
The UMich Consumer Sentiment Political Affiliation Inversion is Now Complete!
Federal Government NFP (Excluding the Postal Service
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:
Breaking down the 1-month net change in NFP:
Examining the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes:
Jobs Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
Job's Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:
✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>
✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…
Today's #NFP release might be noisy, partly rebounding from last month's storm-related distortions. To cut through the noise, consider tracking the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes via ECAN. It’s been trending lower for a while, signaling a cooling labor market.
With the jobs data scheduled for release tomorrow: Discussions about job cuts in S&P 500 earnings calls have only seen a slight uptick from relatively low levels, especially when compared to the spikes in 2020 and 2023. (Chart from ECAN
View on the other side of the room:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at the Bloomberg & Global Interdependence Center Symposium at Bloomberg HQ.
Some background on Korea: In South Korea, claims of impending martial law inflame political ‘war of attrition’ | South China Morning Post
scmp.com/week-asia/poli…
KRW on reports of Korean president declaring martial law:
KRW on reports of President declaring martial law:
We're expanding the ECAN<GO> AI-powered transcript analyzer with new topics using DS TA data. Here's the count of S&P 500 earnings call discussions on holiday sales! (One of the many new topics being released
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Up to 3.2% from 2.7%: (Chart from ECAN
