ECFR MENA

Opinion | A Kurdish Rebellion in Iran Could Be a Disaster

22/ Ellie Geranmayeh for @nytimes.com: "Using the Kurds may provide America and Israel with an initial boost, but ... the ultimate outcome is more likely to be a prolonged civil war than a Kurdish-led or Kurdish-inspired national uprising." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/o...

The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei Iran’s new supreme leader has been shaped by decades-long ties with the powerful and hardline Revolutionary Guards

21/ “Mojtaba for now — and, more importantly, the team around him running the wartime operations — will not be challenged. But if he makes it out alive from this war, that’s when the internal pushback will start." comments Ellie Geranmayeh for
@financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/e63f...

Lebanese fear wider war as Hezbollah-Israel attacks escalate The expanding Middle East war has triggered a new displacement crisis in Lebanon. Amid ongoing attacks, Beirut has postponed parliamentary elections. What is happening to people on the ground?

📰 @kellyp90.bsky.social speaks to Deutsche Welle about the worsening humanitarian situation in Lebanon 👇️ www.dw.com/en/lebanon-h...

U.S. and Iran Predicted a Very Different War Than the One Now Being Waged Economic disruption stemming from the conflict is hurting countries worldwide—while providing a windfall to Russia.

20/ Ellie Geranmayeh for @wsj.com: “The Iranian focus right now is to ensure that everything Trump hears and sees is how bad this war is for the economy and how directly Americans at home are going to be affected by what is happening in Iran.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory, write colleagues from ECFR's programmes in this 360 degree reaction
ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future

For the EU, Syria should be seen as the perfect partner to showcase and advance the opportunities afforded by the new Pact for the Mediterranean, with a wider range of tools that could be quickly deployed by the new DG MENA, writes @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/UK1FDIO

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

The bottom line is that it would be a huge strategic mistake for European actors to embrace Trump’s war in a bid to keep him happy on wider issues, notably Ukraine.

https://ecfr.eu/article/strategic-lunacy-why-europeans-must-stand-up-to-trumps-illegal-war-in-iran/

With the Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, Iran Signals Defiance Tehran’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to lead Iran “sends a strong message to Trump that his bombings and threats are not delivering the regime change he seemingly wants,” an expert told Robin Wrig...

19/ Ellie Geranmayeh tells @NewYorker Mojtaba Khamenei must prove himself capable of saving the Islamic Republic, while facing low legitimacy from the ground up and a war with two nuclear powers, as well as trying to stay alive. www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...

L’analista Cinzia Bianco: “I Paesi del Golfo un fronte unito, stanno reggendo all’attacco iraniano” Per l’esperta del European Council on Foreign Relations Emirati, Bahrein e Qatar hanno superato le passate divergenze e mostrato di essersi ben preparati allo …

18/ @cinziabianco.bsky.social speaks to La Repubblica about how the Gulf countries are presenting a united front in the face of persisting Iranian attacks www.repubblica.it/esteri/2026/...

Analysis: Trump’s Iran war drags the world into his tear-it-down politics | CNN Politics America’s attitude toward allies leading up to the Iran war was the geopolitical equivalent of a slogan on a jacket once notoriously sported by first lady Melania Trump: “I Really Don’t Care. Do U?”

17/ On the one hand, Europeans want to cling on to some sense of international law, or the rules-based order, and then on the other hand, they are desperately trying to keep themselves in Trump’s good books, comments @jbdacey.bsky.social for @cnn.com edition.cnn.com/2026/03/09/p...

16/ Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to @cnn.com about the necessity for Europeans to coordinate their response to the enduring conflict between the US, Israel and Iran in a way that allows for diplomatic off-ramps mediaview.aljazeera.com/video/VTLIxb...

Chaos sown by Iran's attacks across the Persian Gulf is key to its strategy For years, Iran’s theocratic government warned it would blanket the Middle East with missile and drone fire if it felt its existence was threatened.

15/ Ellie Geranmayeh for @apnews.com: “The Iranians are banking on basically out-stomaching [Trump], and exhausting him and his allies to the point where they would basically have a diplomatic off-ramp” apnews.com/article/iran...

14/ @cinziabianco.bsky.social on the reputational damage of this war, for @euronews.com: “This is Dubai’s ultimate nightmare, as its very essence depended on being a safe oasis in a troubled region. There might be a way to be resilient, but there is no going back.” www.euronews.com/travel/2026/...

One World With Zain Asher and Bianna Golodryga - Ellie Geranmayeh 03032026 Powered by SnapStream Cloud Sharing

13/ Ellie Geranmayeh for @cnn.com: "Someone needs to step in to shepherd what a negotiated settlement would look like, that essentially allows this phase of the conflict between US & Iran on the military front to end and for them to go back to the negotiating table" buff.ly/l9X7aUC

Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump

12/ “Trump already took out Khamenei, which no other president dared to do. He has an offramp if he wants, even if Israel sees a momentous window to take out this regime” comments Ellie Geranmayeh for
@nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/w...

Fears of an Iraq 2.0: Expert warns of risks in war with Iran | CNN Paula Newton speaks to senior policy fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations Ellie Geranmayeh about the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and what might come next.

11/ For @cnn.com Ellie Geranmayeh discusses views across Iran's political spectrum edition.cnn.com/2026/03/03/t...

Khamenei killed: Trump talks regime change in Iran after strikes

10/ Ellie Geranmayeh speaks to @france24.com about succession options following Khamenei's death & the possibility of American boots on the ground in Iran www.france24.com/en/khamenei-...

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

9/ It is clear there will be no real victors of the war, but some will suffer heavier losses than others. In this collective piece, ECFR experts give a 360-degree assessment of how key actors are positioning themselves and how much each stands to forfeit. ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Eclairage public contre la délinquance / Mort d’Ali Khamenei / Guerre au Moyen-Orient Ce matin, sur France Culture, à 7h40, Guillaume Erner reçoit Tara Varma chercheuse spécialiste de la géopolitique américaine, Camille Lons, chercheuse spécialiste des pays du Golfe et Armin Arefi, gra...

8/ @camillelons.bsky.social speaks to @franceculture.fr about how Gulf countries see the current military escalation in the Middle East www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

Iran’s Attacks on Persian Gulf Countries Crack Their Safe Haven Image

7/ For @nytimes.com @cinziabianco.bsky.social comments: “There was nothing that [Gulf countries] valued more than that perception of safety — and they prided themselves on maneuvering politically and hedging to be basically on the good books of everyone” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/w...

Géopolitique - L’attaque israélo-américaine: un pari risqué? L’attaque américano-israélienne sur l’Iran met fin à un tabou. Pendant de nombreuses années, les USA ont refusé d’intervenir malgré ce qui les oppose à l’Iran depuis plusieurs décennies. Longtemps, le...

6/ @camillelons.bsky.social speaks to @rfi.fr about Gulf responses to the military strikes www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

It would be a strategic mistake for Europe to embrace Trump’s war to keep him happy on other issues. Europeans should press Trump to pursue political off-ramps and they must be clear: this war needs to end. Piece by Ellie Geranmayeh & @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/mGgGqTv

No one should be under the illusion that Trump is invested in long-term stability in Iran, let alone the rights of the Iranian population. Will Germany pledge to support fleeing Iranians through humanitarian assistance & asylum, and to re-build a functioning Iranian state?

The Iranian regime is horrific, but those Europeans offering direct or tacit support need to ask: how does Europe stop itself from being sucked deeper into Trump’s regime-change war? And how will Europe respond to the fallout of potential state collapse in Iran?

🧵It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire buff.ly/mGgGqTv

Power without a throne: how Khalifa Haftar controls Libya – and is answerable to no one The long read: When Nato helped overthrow Gaddafi in 2011, there were hopes of a new beginning. More than a decade later, this former CIA asset runs the country – and Libya has become yet another…

📰 “The foreign powers maintain the pantomime as much as Haftar does. They can claim to support Libya’s sovereignty while backing the man who undermines it” comments @tmegrisi.bsky.social for @theguardian.com buff.ly/8hotNd4

A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future

For the EU, Syria should be seen as the perfect partner to showcase and advance the opportunities afforded by the new Pact for the Mediterranean, with a wider range of tools that could be quickly deployed by the new DG MENA, writes @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/UK1FDIO

Our collective piece on the regional and global drivers, theatres & implications of the Iran war from across @ecfr.eu, with thread below ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future

✍️ Syria has a long way to go before it has functioning governance, economic growth and lasting stability. Europeans should be fully invested in working with the government and wider population to support this push towards a brighter future. @jbdacey.bsky.social👇️ buff.ly/UK1FDIO

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

Analysis by @jbdacey.bsky.social, Ellie Geranmayeh, @hlovatt.bsky.social, @cinziabianco.bsky.social, Majda Ruge, @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, @jkobzova.bsky.social & @ajwsmall.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...