Bridget McKenzie now also running for Nats leadership and Michael McCormack may dust off the Elvis suit one more time.
10.03.2026 12:01
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Bridget McKenzie now also running for Nats leadership and Michael McCormack may dust off the Elvis suit one more time.
Is calling an electorate "Deception Bay" really a good idea? "The aptly-named honourable member for Deception Bay ..." #qldpol
Seconds to get to point of saying "I'm buggered" while resigning something in political career (approx)
D Littleproud 305,600,000
M Meninga 30
Eight in a few weeks over ten years appears to be (narrowly) the densest concentration of leadership spills in Country/Nats history.
Nationals spills since 2016:
2016 Joyce unopposed
2018 McCormack d Christensen
2020 McCormack d Joyce
2021 Joyce d McCormack
2022 Littleproud d Joyce and Chester
2025 Littleproud d Canavan
2026 (1) Littleproud d Boyce spill motion
2026 (2) ?
Now that Morgan is back to week to week readings their numbers will be volatile. However of note this is:
* lowest ALP primary of term from anyone by 2 points
* equal lowest combined major party primary from anyone for this term.
#Morgan ALP 26.5 L-NP 22.5 ON 23.5 Green 14.5 others 13
2PP respondent 54.5 to ALP (-1.5)
last election 53 to ALP (-0.5)
my conversion 52.5 to ALP (-0.7)
www.roymorgan.com/findings/101...
I have added some comments on the Farrer uComms TAI poll here. Noting that Milthorpe was named and her opponents were not, there is some chance that if the respondents actually voted, the Liberals would get over her and win on preferences in this sample.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/farr...
They're not, the poll may have been done before that was known.
Among other things about the perpetually awful Cory Bernardi we now find he is "offended by people eating too much McDonalds". Why is he "offended" by this? Does he fear that it will turn them gay?
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...
Seems to be no number for Nationals in this poll.
Good example of how optional preferences are a potential disaster zone for those on the conservative side foolish enough to be advocating them at the moment, under compulsory prefs this would be about 56.5 to ALP. #nswpol
#taschess news Top seed Carl Gorka has won his third Tasmanian Championship title of the last four years on 6.5/7 from Zach Lim 6 and defending champion Will Rumley 5
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/03/nigh... Nightcliff By-Election (This May Be A Very Short Thread) #ntpol
Note re #Nightcliff tonight, I will most likely be offline when the count starts but I may be able to do some coverage at some unknown stage during the night if it looks interesting. #ntpol
Helen Dalton not running for Farrer, only four major moving pieces now.
It is a risk that if there are a substantial number of just-1s the ticket may benefit some party those voters would not have chosen. I am not a big fan of the system.
It's not a fresh hell, it's a longstanding piece of SA weirdness to reduce the informal rate. A vote that would otherwise be informal because numbers are omitted or repeated is converted to the savings ticket of the party voted 1 for but only if it followed that ticket up to the first error.
One Nation say they will run open HTVs in SA. Because of SA's savings provisions if this results in any voters just voting 1, those votes will be converted to a savings ticket lodged by the party (assuming it lodges one). #saparli
Farrer by-election 9 May (week after Nepean and Tas LegCo), close of nominations 13 April announced 14 April.
Full indicative distributions were eventually done for all seats in 2022 but those were discretional. It should be mandatory and funded appropriately in all states and territories where this is not already the case. www.vec.vic.gov.au/voting/elect...
In debate re the current Vic elections amendment bill, the Liberals are moving an amendment to require the production of full preference throws for all divisions. #springst
That I could see Labor possibly surviving on. They do have a big pendulum advantage on 2PP.
#Freshwater Vic (state) primaries not as bad for ALP as Redbridge! ALP 28 L-NP 27 ON 23 Green 13 others 9 2PP 50-50 (method unknown) #springst
There are a couple of extremes in this case:
- hybrid vigour: L-NP wins the seats it can and ONP wins some off Labor that L-NP can't
- treading on toes: ONP outlasts L-NP in seats where L-NP wins the 2PP and then goes on to lose them
More of the former on these numbers IMO.
It's rather hard to say what that is in seat terms but I would think the chance of a combined Coalition/One Nation majority off that would be high.
#Redbridge Vic (state) ALP 25 L-NP 28 ON 24 Grn 13 other 10
Their 2PPs 52-48 to L-NP (respondent) 51-49 (last election). I would expect in the range 52-53.
ALP vs ON 53-47 to ALP (respondent). I would expect a lot closer. #springst
(* ON 22 not ALP 22 of course)
