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Robert McLachlan

@robertmclachlan

New Zealand mathematician, writing on climate & the environment at http://planetaryecology.org

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Latest posts by Robert McLachlan @robertmclachlan

Yes, should have signed it! Data from www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-a...

10.03.2026 04:28 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Mazdas are running 34 gCO2/km over target (cf all makes 22g) and have the second highest cumulative CO2 gap (just behind Toyota).

09.03.2026 22:18 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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All NZ cars are getting heavier, but petrol, hybrid, and diesels are also getting higher-emission. Counting electricity generation, BEVs have declined from 17 to 11 gCO2/km. And what's up with those diesels at 231 gCO2/km?!

09.03.2026 21:49 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I sit at my table en grand seigneur,
And when I have done, throw a crust to the poor;
Not only the pleasure, one’s self, of good living,
But also the pleasure of now and then giving.
How pleasant it is to have money, heigh ho!
How pleasant it is to have money.

09.03.2026 06:35 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Palmy bus use grows 69% in two years - Horizons Regional Council

Today's news on Horizons Council web site. Those are 100% electric buses that were vilified as 'nice-to-haves' by some politicians and pundits. They went into service 2 years ago along with a seriously revamped set of bus routes.
These changes have been very good for the whole region.

09.03.2026 05:19 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

Just eyeballing the chart, the 'model mean' is warming at 0.3 ΒΊC/decade from 2010-2030, which is consistent but with the IPCC's most recent consensus value of 0.27, and with Foster/Rahmstorf's 0.35 Β± 0.07 Β°C. On his blog Foster ends up at 0.31 Β± 0.07 Β°C. Overall, broad agreement on the big picture.

07.03.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe quercus macrocarpa, burr oak?

07.03.2026 22:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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This one's a bit more up to date...

06.03.2026 21:08 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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05.03.2026 01:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah really. Is there any energy-transport-climate policy more sensible, more effective, fairer, cheaper, supported by a more colossal amount of experience than a fuel economy standard? No there is not. But still somehow we mess it up.

05.03.2026 00:50 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Minister of Transport writes back β€” Emission Impossible 19 January 2026

The Minister has said that "The analysis that will be undertaken to inform the 2026 review of the Standard will include estimates for noxious emissions". That is, if they don't decide to scrap the whole thing first. See here:
www.emissionimpossible.co.nz/news-archive...

04.03.2026 22:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Government considering scrapping entire clean car standard An EV advocate says if the proposal goes ahead, Kiwis will be sold "the high-emitting leftovers" that manufacturers can no longer sell in Australia.

In Australia cars averaged 114 gCO2/km (target 144g).
Light commercials 199g (target 214g).

In NZ: cars 138g (target 113g),
light commercials 219g (target 223g, old target 155g).

Standards work. Yet NZ Govt is asking the car industry if it wants to scrap them.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

04.03.2026 21:20 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 3

Australia has reported the first (H2 2025) results of their new vehicle emissions standards.

Both cars and light commercials easily beat the targets.
www.nvesregulator.gov.au/reporting-an...

04.03.2026 21:20 πŸ‘ 61 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 0

New Zealand is extremely fortunate to be less dependent on gas than many countries. Let's keep it that way.

04.03.2026 20:24 πŸ‘ 49 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

New Brattle report: Europe could get much farther pivoting to "clean flexibility" than it will trying to find alternative gas suppliers.

We're seeing that gas dependence ties you to just as much uncertainty, volatility, & inflation as dependence on oil. The only real independence is clean.

04.03.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 138 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 5
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In light of possible oil price shocks and disruptions to supply, here is a snapshot of the 7.2 million tonnes of oil burned in NZ in 2024. The good news is that half of it is easy to do without and another quarter is more challenging but also known to be doable.

04.03.2026 04:06 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

It's interesting that the airport now reports its procurement emissions (enormous) and aircraft emissions (no words for it). So at least their reporting has improved.

04.03.2026 01:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is great, and all buildings need this, but the airport's emissions are 2000t from gas (to reduce by 40%), 2300t from electricity, 145,000t from procurement (eg construction), and 3.4 million tonnes from departing aircraft. A $6.6 billion expansion will increase emissions.

04.03.2026 01:32 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is just to say, etc.

28.02.2026 21:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It may be that when we no longer know what to do
we have come to our real work,

and that when we no longer know which way to go
we have come to our real journey.

The mind that is not baffled is not employed.

The impeded stream is the one that sings.

-- Wendell Berry

25.02.2026 21:19 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Move-on orders are a game-changer for fixing the nation’s complex problems It’s amazing what issues you can solve if you just shift them to somewhere you don’t have to look at them.

Palmerston North mentioned!
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-...

25.02.2026 19:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Does this square with em6, which reports battery discharge was lowest on 1/1 (0.08 MWh) and highest on 12/1 (150 MWh)?

25.02.2026 02:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Not bad!

25.02.2026 00:54 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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A Line in the Sandstone (Denniston Plateau Film) Deep Creek is one of the lesser-known treasures of the Denniston Plateau. Ancient, weather-shaped, and alive with rare ecosystems, this sandstone stronghold remains a place of profound wilderness.

Fundraiser for the film "A Line in the Sandstone" (Denniston Plateau Film) – Bathurst Resources filing for fast-track approval soon chuffed.org/project/alin...

23.02.2026 21:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

New Zealand mentioned! (Well, almost. Rod Carr is an author.)

20.02.2026 22:27 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"Global COβ‚‚ emissions from power generation rose by 1% in 2024, following a 1.4% rise in 2023" – IEA. Do you have a figure for 2025 – perhaps flat?

19.02.2026 19:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Abundant energy for business Reinvigorating the private sector with rooftop solar

Good study by William & Peter Bisley: solar on 10% of NZ's available commercial & industrial roofs would cost $3b, earn $600m a year, and add 1.5 TWh of winter storage to the lakes – the same amount of energy the cracked LNG scheme is supposed to deliver.
bisley.substack.com/p/abundant-e...

19.02.2026 05:22 πŸ‘ 59 πŸ” 34 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 5
Who decides which properties will be allowed to rebuild?
Who will pay for rebuilding and subsequent insurance?
Who decides which cities or areas will be defended β€” by sea walls, dredging projects, canals β€” and which will be abandoned?
If people must relocate, who decides when, and which people?
Who pays for relocation?
Which communities take in the relocated?
Who decides on compensation for the relocated?
What are the legal rights of the relocated? Who is legally liable for foreseeable damage to coastal property?
What is the value of nonmonetary attachment to a home or place? Is sentiment counted? Who decides on its value?
Should these decisions be made by lawmakers and technocrats or popular votes and referenda? Ad hoc or planned in advance? Determined by market forces or by some collective judgment of fairness?
If, as seems inevitable, the poor suffer first and worst from the impacts of extreme weather, what role should equity play in decisions about relocation?

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/8/16272538/what-is-worth-saving

Who decides which properties will be allowed to rebuild? Who will pay for rebuilding and subsequent insurance? Who decides which cities or areas will be defended β€” by sea walls, dredging projects, canals β€” and which will be abandoned? If people must relocate, who decides when, and which people? Who pays for relocation? Which communities take in the relocated? Who decides on compensation for the relocated? What are the legal rights of the relocated? Who is legally liable for foreseeable damage to coastal property? What is the value of nonmonetary attachment to a home or place? Is sentiment counted? Who decides on its value? Should these decisions be made by lawmakers and technocrats or popular votes and referenda? Ad hoc or planned in advance? Determined by market forces or by some collective judgment of fairness? If, as seems inevitable, the poor suffer first and worst from the impacts of extreme weather, what role should equity play in decisions about relocation? https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/8/16272538/what-is-worth-saving

Theres a quiet myth that #climate adaptation is less contentious than mitigation. It isn’t

Who's protected? Who pays? Who decides?

If we can’t transform society to decarbonize justly, why think adaptation will be easier? Both hinge on fairness, equality &democracy

Reminded of key Qs by @volts.wtf

17.02.2026 14:13 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 6
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Another all-time record for daily geothermal power in NZ: 29,532 MWh on 15 Feb. Hydro 54%, geo 29%, wind 13%. 98.75% renewable. Wind & solar's variability combines well with hydro, but so does geothermal – as baseload it eases demand on the rest of the system. Huge potential.

19.02.2026 03:27 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

New Zealand government currently asking the car industry how they feel about scrapping our emission standards (which were only put in place 3 years ago and have already been weakened twice).

16.02.2026 18:31 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0