5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator is oversold. Pink lines show past instances when it was oversold. Dotted blue lines are ZBT buy signals.

I am not holding my breath for a buy signal, but a bounce is highly likely.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Why the latest spike in Brent oil is different from the June spike. The YoY change in June was negative, it's hugely positive today.

The current YoY change far exceeds the spring/summer 2024 when Trump skillfully attacked Biden on "affordability".

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$XLF breaking absolute and relative support, but relative breadth (bottom 2 panels) are improving

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Gulf War III has turned the Sell America trade into Buy America as the US has become the safe haven

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Equity averages are starting to break down through resistance, but Monday's outside day reversals are still holding up (relatively) well.
$SPX $NDX

Fourth consecutive day average gas prices are above $3.50

Whoa! Is it TACO time?

Third consecutive day that gasoline prices are above $3.50

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Why this oil price spike is nothing like June:
1) June YoY increase was negative, now positive
2) Current YoY increase higher than level seen in spring/summer 2024, when Biden got into political trouble over #affordability

Time to TACO?

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$GLD hasn't seen this level of panic outflows since 2016
#sentiment

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$GDX now on rising trend line support

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward P/E now down to 20.9 after Friday's downdraft. Is that cheap enough?

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
All major US indices are breaking down out of their trading ranges, except for $NDX

How can Iran surrender if Israel/US keep trying to kill any new leadership?

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
For the past few weeks I've warned about the elevated readings of NYSE High Low Logic, which indicates a bifurcated market, much like the #HindenburgOmen. Will the #Iran war be the trigger for a correction?

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Equity risk appetite factors look a little wobbly here

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The combination of sideways $SPX price movement and rising EPS estimates means that forward P/E has fallen to 21.5. Less stratospheric but still elevated.

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward 12m EPS estimates are rising strongly

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Major US averages have been range bound, except EW $SPX is in an uptrend. Though $IWM violated a rising trend line but range bound.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
If you thought small caps represent the new leadership, here's a warning. The $SML is exhibiting a negative divergence against its A-D Line.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Beware! The market is still highly bifurcated

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software stocks are still weak, and technology is testing a key relative support level.
$IGV

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Our #TradeWar factor barely budged in response to the #IEEPA decision

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Did you notice the market reaction to the #SCOTUS #IEEPA ruling? $SPX was up less than 1% and $VVIX remains above 100, indicating continued anxiety.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet

Tail Risk for Banks Posed by Investments in Generative Artificial Intelligence - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly increase our productivity and alter how we work and live in many ways. Because of this potential—and the related financial…

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year

I know that everyone is excited about broadening breadth. But the EW $SPX and $ACWI ex-US are now at the top of their rising channels. Too much too fast?

$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX