Time required for a 1C increase in global average temperature
1970 - 2008 average rise 0.18C per decade = 55 years
2015 - 2024 average rise 0.27C pd = 37 years
New study - last 10+ years - average rise 0.35 pd = 28 years
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
"While the world’s attention is drawn to Iran after the US and Israel’s attack, on the heels of other armed conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the primary threat to many countries is the climate crisis, said Regenvanu", noting 1 cyclone wiped out 64% of Vanuatu’s GDP
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
ICYMI: @egmontinstitute.bsky.social's Sven Biscop 👇 on the geopolitics of #Russia's war against #Ukraine and what this means for #Europe
www.egmontinstitute.be/a-european-w...
The Trump administration does not seem to have a clear theory of change, but "bombings from the air do not manufacture organized political alternatives"
Worth your time 👇
TL;DR: the view that Khamenei's reign was disastrous for the system is widespread among its remnants & regime change is already a reality, but the question is how, given sense of existential threat; "they don't know how to get out of the corner without fighting their way out" (1/2)
This year, "Ukraine and the EU tabled a much shorter text. The U.S. pitched an unsuccessful last-minute proposal to delete two paragraphs affirming Ukraine’s sovereign rights, which only eleven countries – including Russia – backed." 👇
Fair warning, no?
While I very much subscribe to the sentiment of this speech, it is somewhat ironic to invoke Potemkin to describe "pseudo-history", given that the "Potemkin villages" seem to have been posthumous fake news according to Simon Sebag Montefiori...
Great overview on the state of EU climate policy 👇
Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"
The researchers estimate that Mao‘s „anti-sparrow campaign by itself accounted for nearly 20% of the fall in crop production during the famine. They reckon that loss, amplified by the effects of the redistribution system, killed about 2m people directly.“ 👇
www.economist.com/science-and-...
"The authors estimated that, between 2000 and 2005, the loss of vultures caused 500,000 additional human deaths."
"nature's sanitation service" was killed by a drug used for cattle, leading to more water pollution & infectious diseases from scavengers 👇
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
To add two examples beyond the UK's assessment that are not climate-related, but where the loss in a single species had huge consequences, consider the two examples of vultures in #India and sparrows in #China: 3/5
Whereas the mechanisms linking nature to, first, human & livelihood security and ultimately to regional and global stability are often indirect and building up over a longer timespan, and are often hard to unequivocally attribute to one single cause, that does not make them less consequential 2/5
As #MSC2026 kicks off, worth revisiting this assessment 👇
"Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources"
Nature loss undermines security far beyond the UK 1/5
Though someone needs to tell Schumpeter who writes about 1980s Wallstreet elites that "meritocracy made them powerful" ...
www.economist.com/business/202...
The @economist.com realigns politically with Nina Simone (the United Snakes of America) 👇
Which organization can we credit with this administration's creative efforts to nudge middle powers to strengthen the EU, the European pillar of NATO, the UN and sundry regional free trade agreements? Is this an MI6 plot??
Landespolitik: Wahl von Sven Schulze zum Ministerpräsidenten von Sachsen-Anhalt (9:40 Uhr) und Verteidigung (10:25 Uhr) des Ministerpräsidenten im Landtag. Landtag Magdeburg, ab 9:30 Uhr
Immer eine gute Übersicht! Und selbst die Verschreiber passen ;-)
US opposes mentioning rule of law in the #UNSC:
" #Somalia circulated a draft presidential statement on the rule of law on 17 January. ... the draft was withdrawn on 22 January. It appears that the #US indicated that it was opposed to the text" 👇
www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/...
"Even before ICE cut its training schedule to just 47 days last year — a length, remember absurdly chosen to honor Donald Trump as the 47th president — ICE’s “1801” deportation officers were among the least educated and least trained federal law enforcement in the country" 👇
NEW | Wind and solar generated more power than fossil fuels in the EU for the FIRST time ever.
🌪️ and ☀️ made up a RECORD 30% of 🇪🇺 electricity, up from 20% just five years ago.
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/
A milestone we didn't want to see - Russia has made one trillion euros on fossil fuel exports since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. All the more reason to shift away from dependence on dirty energy and to strengthen sanctions on Russia.
"Trump’s express revisionism is more dangerous than his predecessor’s familiar hypocrisy. For all the double standards, the core tenets of the post-World War II legal order need U.S. buy-in": a peek at what spheres-of-influence politics entails across various fragile contexts 👇
"edited for length and clarity" 👇 & very well so, from the headline to the conclusion that what’s troubling "is not just that the President has used force in clear violation of domestic law and international law but that it’s clear he couldn’t care less about the fact that he’s breaking these rules"
This piece by @attackerman.bsky.social on both past & contemporary censorship is very much worth your time, whether in 2025 or next year
"A lot of people who are worried about democracy in America want to relax the constraints on military subordination. [...] [but] the military can’t save us from the civilians we elect"
Very interesting points from @kschake.bsky.social on civ-mil relations 👇, and it comes w/ some silver lining...
"The empowerment of Smotrich, an energetic settler leader and a proponent of annexation, as both finance minister and de facto West Bank governor has allowed him to advance far-reaching institutional changes. ... To have any real [...] impact, foreign governments will have to be much bolder." 👇
On the weaponization of energy and information👇
"The EU and its Member States should counter Russian energy-related disinformation with a dedicated, coordinated approach. ...
Member States should break decisively with Russian fossil exports and communicate this shift through a positive narrative"
Since everyone is asking for "data-driven analysis", @data.ft.com went all in 😉 👇
