Giled Pallaeon

Given that the dust isn’t settled re: RRAB/JAR, I wouldn’t write CAPE’s obituary yet. PB27 basically ignored it and it’s unlikely to affect the PB28 cycle mechanically as much as it just makes more work figuring out if the acquisitions folks aren’t sniffing CTR-provided glue.

What can I say? I’m annoyed at how poorly this is understood outside the Five Sided Wind Tunnel when it’s so damn critical.

NDAA is passed, everyone updates their books and gets to spending the money while planning for a couple cycles in the future.

Eventually I’ll come back and talk CRs. For now, this has been “How the Hell Does DoD Work, and How Does That Get Anything Done” with GP. Have a good day.

Such as the 15 Year Aviation Plan and 30 Year Shipbuilding Plan, which are both given to Congress and processed by other parts of DoD to inform more strategic analysis for the next cycle. From then on it’s in the hands of Congress (with opinions from the Executive every two minutes), and when the…

Program, or FYDP, which covers the base year of the budget and the following four. The fall of 2025 (and the winter) were spent building the FY2027 budget that ran out through FY2031.

Once the PB is formally submitted, the Services take that approved document and build/update more things…

February the fiscal year prior. This hasn’t happened for over a decade, I think since either Obama 1 or Dubya. A long damn time. Anyway.

This means the previous fall CAPE et al are running around like madmen building the budget for two years in the future, and the rest of the Future Years Defense…

Office of Management and Budget (OMB, the folks from the beginning) ironing out the details before handing off the completed effort for ~~OMB to toss in the shredder~~ the White House’s process before submission to Congress.

By law, the President’s Budget is due to Congress the first Monday of…

In reality, after issues are decided, CAPE and other colleagues work with Comptroller to capture the decisions made in Program Decision Memorandums, or PDMs. There is also a period of weeks where CAPE, Comptroller, and sometimes others play budget badminton with each other and the…

In perfect cycles (lol lmao), issues that require increased spending (almost all) must also come with offsets (who are we robbing to pay Paul). The results and options of these discussions are presented back to senior leaders at the “end” of PBR for decision making.

These issues are grouped into buckets for Issue Teams to deal with, which are collaborative forums for all the Services, all the PSAs, and other interested parties to sit down in rooms for several weeks and hash out the best way, if any change from the POMs, to fix the issues.

CAPE then allows a period of time for issue paper submissions, where people who don’t write budgets or think the budgets have bad ideas can write letters to the editor complaining. CAPE leadership sorts the issues against the guidance, picking some they will deal with and some they won’t/cant.

And who is the worst offender varies year to year as the Services balance guidance with what they want and what they think they can get OSD to pay for out of the joint bucket.

The POMs are briefed to Dept senior leaders and sent to CAPE, starting Program Budget Review, or PBR.

These things are sent out to the Services, which write the Program Objective Memorandums, or POMs. On paper, these are what and how the Services would spend without any further interaction with OSD. Spoiler, we’re barely starting, so it’s not. There’s always a degree of politicking and game theory…

Previous analysis done by the Services and OSD. As the latter often disagree with each other (shocking) there is usually a degree of fudge factor and the Secretary’s hobby horses in the guidance. (This is where things like the Analysis Working Group, or AWG, are meant to kick in.)

What they think the budget should look like. This typically looks like a version of “roses, stems, and thorns”, ie more of this, same amount of that, and less of that thing over there.

Each Secretary has their preferred ways to write and use the DPG, and it’s supposed to be informed by…

“OSD Corporate”, all the stuff the Services don’t pay for (a much fuzzier line than you’d think if you read my last thread), and some is held in reserve.

Parallel SecDef and Policy write the Defense Planning Guidance. This is an annual document signed by the Secretary telling the Services…

The first thing that happens is Comptroller talks to the White House and figures out what the overall total for the budget will be. That pot of money is then, in accordance with both regulation and guidance, sliced into pieces. Each Service gets a chunk they plan against, some is held for…

For this conversation we only care about three, Comptroller, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE), and Policy. Everyone else has parts, some more bit than others, but those three are the heavy hitters for budgeting in DoD. Spoiler, they’re also three of the most hated, CAPE especially.

It’s also unfortunately central to the budget process, because it includes the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), which is not just the personal staff of the Secretary but the nineteen components thereof. media.defense.gov/2025/Jan/17/...

Ok, first, quick definition. The Fourth Estate in DoD World means everyone who isn’t a combatant command (see operational command in the thread I built off of), a military Department (see Services same), or the Intelligence Community (IC). It *does* include about 18% of the Dept budget at last count

Let’s do another thread. How does the Department of Defense write its budget?

The smartass answer is slowly, poorly, and painfully.

Unfortunately for those of us in the thick of it, that’s also the correct answer. Let’s chat.

We are talking about a man arguably most famous for how much you beat the market average by if you always do the opposite of his advicd

I did say it was late and I was going fast

The immune system is not a muscle.

It is a cleansing fire.

It causes collateral damage.

It has a limited supply of fuel.

It can get out of control.

Don’t burn your whole house down every time by catching every disease without caution.

Something like that lmao

I’m sympathetic to the Navy up to a point because OSD doesn’t get enough blame for several of the acquisition debacles, but yes.

Tbh sounds like hell, but I’m in the cheap seats for those arguments because I sit over on the PPBE/4th Estate side of the house.

Much appreciated, sir. And cliche as it is, thank you for your service.

Alternatively it’s a warning. The most effective way to close a shipping lane is to lay a minefield. The second most effective way is to declare you laid a minefield.

A distinction for all my time in parts of the Department that both do and do not care about that distinction was never explained to me.