Richard Riley (R²)

Advert says: 'We're seeking applications from those with evidence synthesis knowledge and experience, as well as from researchers with relevant practical and methodological expertise. Applications from those with complex synthesis or health economic expertise are particularly welcome.'

Interesting in contributing to an NIHR panel that funds evidence synthesis projects? See below. This is a fantastic opportunity - deadline 24th March.

Committee members will need to be available for the Funding Committee being held on 29 and 30 July 2026.

www.nihr.ac.uk/get-involved...

Stability of clinical prediction models developed using statistical or machine learning methods Clinical prediction models estimate an individual's risk of a particular health outcome. A developed model is a consequence of the development dataset and model-building strategy, including the sampl...

Thanks! And yes I would but moreover I would report prediction instability plots, to reveal the uncertainty around individual risk estimates - and other instability plots as suggested here onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Sad but not surprising that missing data neglected … a common unreported aspect

@glenmartin.bsky.social is giving an online seminar:

"Missing Data: The Missing Component in Guidance for Developing, Validating and Implementing Prediction Models"

📅 Date: Tuesday 10th March 2026
🕐 Time: 1–2pm GMT
📍 Location: Online

🔗 Register here to receive the Teams link: lnkd.in/ejk7EFzC

Next RSS discussion meeting has picked a great topic:
'Regression by composition' by Daniel Farewell, Rhian Daniel et al.

Tuesday, 24 March 2026; Imperial College London, and online.

Time: 4pm to 6pm (UK time)

Introductory DeMO 2:15pm to 3:15pm

Registration here: rss.org.uk/training-eve...

Importance of sample size for AI-based prediction models in healthcare YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

⭐ NEW VIDEO 🎬 : "The importance of sample size for the development & evaluation of AI-based prediction models for healthcare"

youtu.be/EN8NuKBS0W4

Training or evaluating prediction models for AI-based healthcare? This talk is for you!

Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare Rigorous study design and analytical standards are required to generate reliable findings in healthcare from artificial intelligence (AI) research. One crucial but often overlooked aspect is the deter...

The talk is based on our paper in Lancet Digital Health

Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, et al. Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare. Lancet Digit Health. 2025;7(6):100857.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

A range of examples are given, with a focus on the key measures of discrimination, calibration, prediction instability and clinical utility. Additionally, I highlight approaches and software for calculating the minimum sample sizes required for model training and evaluation

Many research datasets are simply too small for training or evaluating a clinical prediction model. This talk explains this, by outlining how inadequate sample sizes negatively impact model training, evaluation, and predictive performance.

Importance of sample size for AI-based prediction models in healthcare YouTube video by Richard_D_Riley

⭐ NEW VIDEO 🎬 : "The importance of sample size for the development & evaluation of AI-based prediction models for healthcare"

youtu.be/EN8NuKBS0W4

Training or evaluating prediction models for AI-based healthcare? This talk is for you!

Design and analysis to estimate diagnostic test accuracy without universal verification at University of Bristol on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Design and analysis to estimate diagnostic test accuracy without universal verification at University of Bristol, listed on FindAPhD.com

📣 PhD studentship - Biostatistics 💻
University of Bristol, UK
Help improve methods for something that affects us all - how accurate are tests for disease?
Learn, apply & develop Bayesian models to estimate accuracy from varying study designs, synthesise evidence & optimise design of future studies

⭐ NEW PAPER ⭐ on a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models - account for uncertainty in the assumed true performance of the model - plus calculate assurance probabilities & the value of information
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Wow this is a breakthrough in validation of predictive models that fully accounts for point estimates used in predictions being only point estimates. Great work @richarddriley.bsky.social and colleagues! #Statistics #StatsSky

⭐ NEW PAPER ⭐ on a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models - account for uncertainty in the assumed true performance of the model - plus calculate assurance probabilities & the value of information
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Photo of page from Daily Telegraph with headline “My open letter to the makers of the new Blake’s 7 reboot” and some columns of text, followed by an advert for three operas

Space… opera. My piece on Blake’s 7 in today’s print edition of the Daily Telegraph

Two openings for PhD candidates:

1️⃣ Use causal inference methods for early evaluation of the downstream effect of algorithms on patient outcomes. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum...

2️⃣ Develop methods for evaluating patient predictions under different treatment options. 👉 www.lumc.nl/en/about-lum...

Interested in learning about IPD meta-analysis projects? Join me for a gentle introduction to the topic, in the seminar below (Wednesday Jan 28th 12 to 1pm GMT)

www.ticketsource.co.uk/arcyorkshire...

Unseen, Uncut Dailies & Edits: The Doctor Falls "Be Kind" Speech YouTube video by How I Filmed This - Rachel Talalay

Unseen footage The Doctor Falls. especially for actors/writers. Tribute to Capaldi/Moffat.
New content on my youTube channel: youtu.be/9-ysp77GKN0

Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals When recruiting participants to a new study developing a clinical prediction model (CPM), sample size calculations are typically conducted before data collection based on sensible assumptions. This le...

**NEW PAPER: 'Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals'

- led by Amardeep Legha

www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

AMSTAR-PF: a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies The ability to predict the onset or natural history of an illness, or how people may respond to a treatment, guides clinical decision making. These predictions are commonly based on prognostic factors...

** NEW PAPER in BMJ **

"AMSTAR-PF: a critical appraisal tool for systematic reviews of prognostic factor studies"

Allows the quality of prognostic factor reviews to be examined.

Brilliantly led by Michael L Henry.

www.bmj.com/content/391/...

Doug Altman was an internationally renowned statistician who served as The BMJ’s chief statistical adviser.

Read about life and work that made this statistician a "citation millionaire"
#BMJChristmas
www.bmj.com/content/391/...

NEW PAPER: A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 2: time-to-event outcomes

* Implemented via pmstabilityss module, facilitates models with precise & fair individual-level predictions
rdcu.be/eUVam

@richarddriley.bsky.social fantastic talk is now online. Thank you Richard and Merry Xmaths!

restores.univ-rennes.fr/highlights/1...

Still a few places available on our online 3-day course "Statistical Methods for Risk Prediction and Prognostic Models", running 13-15th January 2026. Details below. Last date to register is 30th December. www.birmingham.ac.uk/study/short-...

👋 all, do not miss the next LORIER webinar (in partnership with OSIRIS, ResToRes Research integrity in biomedical research, Embrace, and the Réseau Français de la Recherche Reproductible)… | Florian... 👋 all, do not miss the next LORIER webinar (in partnership with OSIRIS, ResToRes Research integrity in biomedical research, Embrace, and the Réseau Français de la Recherche Reproductible), featuring...

"On the 12th Day of Christmas, A Statistician Sent To Me ...."
- live talk, tomorrow (Fri 12th Dec) at 11:30 UK time
- intended for a broad audience
- if you want to join, please DM Florian Naudet (link 👇)
- I promise it will be both fun & educational

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

👋 all, do not miss the next LORIER webinar (in partnership with OSIRIS, ResToRes Research integrity in biomedical research, Embrace, and the Réseau Français de la Recherche Reproductible)… | Florian... 👋 all, do not miss the next LORIER webinar (in partnership with OSIRIS, ResToRes Research integrity in biomedical research, Embrace, and the Réseau Français de la Recherche Reproductible), featuring...

"On the 12th Day of Christmas, A Statistician Sent To Me ...."
- live talk, tomorrow (Fri 12th Dec) at 11:30 UK time
- intended for a broad audience
- if you want to join, please DM Florian Naudet (link 👇)
- I promise it will be both fun & educational

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

By @richarddriley.bsky.social

thanks Richard 🙏⚽

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Research Methods Academy: Seminar - The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models. After registering, you w... Led by Professor Richard Riley Join this Online Seminar on clinical prediction models estimate individual risk for outcomes from disease. Many studies lack rigorous design; this session will focus o...

Giving a talk today which anyone can watch online: 1pm - 2pm
"The Importance of Sample Size for the Development and Evaluation of Clinical Prediction Models"
- intended for a broad audience (anyone doing or using prediction model research)
imperial-ac-uk.zoom.us/webinar/regi...