Hamidreza Azizi

Thank you. Please note that, as the title suggest, I‘m reflecting on the Iranian narrative. That‘s what they clearly say not necessarily what I think.

A Day FIVE recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative) -- @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

"sustained Israeli air operations inside Iran, Iranian efforts to impose costs on U.S. interests and regional energy markets, and a widening regional and proxy dimension to the conflict."

Reposted from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on X because it's the only analysis of Iranian strategy I've seen that seems to think they may actually have a plan.

The War of Regime Change Has Begun An Early Assessment of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran

(2/8) @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social: Entscheidend ist, ob die Islamische Republik den Schock nach Khameneis Tod absorbieren & regierungsfähig bleiben kann. Gelingt das, dürfte sich der Konfilkt ausweiten. 👇
www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...

After Khamenei: What Iran, and the World, Face Next "Long ago, the Islamic Republic learned to distribute coercive power across institutions to enable the state to survive crises," writes Hamidreza Azizi

»Iranian missiles have continued to fly, senior officials have struck defiant postures, and security forces have moved swiftly to shape the streets...« Tehran shows continuity in its military response, not collapse, writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social time.com/7381954/iran...

by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social (c&p from twitter into thread here):

🔹 CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases used B-1 bombers. The U.S. is trying to dismantle Iran’s fortified underground missile facilities.

(1/24)

The Man Who Would Be King Ali Shamkhani and Iran’s Security-Managed Transition

Fascinating insight from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, crucial relevance for what comes next in Iran:

The Man Who Would Be King
open.substack.com/pub/irananal...

The War of Regime Change Has Begun An Early Assessment of the U.S.-Israeli War Against Iran

For a recap and a primer, from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

www.irananalytica.org/p/the-war-of...

Insightful piece from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on how and why venue matters for Iran talks.

In this case, Turkey's bigger ambitions of gaining leverage and positioning itself as a rising regional power reduce its suitability for Iran.

www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...

All Roads Lead to Muscat What Iran’s Preference for Oman Reveals About Its Mediation Playbook

Thanks! The following piece builds on that research to explain the change of venue from Turkey to Oman:
www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...

All Roads Lead to Muscat What Iran’s Preference for Oman Reveals About Its Mediation Playbook

Thanks! The following piece builds on that research to explain the change of venue from Turkey to Oman:
www.irananalytica.org/p/all-roads-...

Higher turnout in Iraq’s elections signals progress, but major challenges lie ahead. @iswerenfelsi.bsky.social & @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social examine how the next government must balance between the US & Iran while tackling domestic strains, militias, climate change & financial fragility. Read it now👇

Reclaiming Iraqi Agency Post-election Dynamics and Challenges

The higher turnout in Iraq’s elections signals progress in security, infrastructure, and political stability. But the next government faces tough domestic challenges and a balancing act between the US and Iran, say @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social and Isabelle Werenfels. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Hamidreza Azizi on X: "The Myth of an IRGC Coup In my latest analysis on Iran Analytica, I examine why speculation about an IRGC coup misreads how power actually works in #Iran and why succession, not seizure, is the real fault line 👇 https://t.co/hrkSepeDlt" / X The Myth of an IRGC Coup In my latest analysis on Iran Analytica, I examine why speculation about an IRGC coup misreads how power actually works in #Iran and why succession, not seizure, is the real fault line 👇 https://t.co/hrkSepeDlt

Excellent analysis on the IRGC, myths of a coup, post-Khamenei order and what could happen to the Islamic Republic following these latest fissures by Berlin-based Iran scholar @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...

The Myth of an IRGC Coup Succession, Militarization, and the Constraints on Power in Iran

Really good read by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

www.irananalytica.org/p/the-myth-o...

Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options

(6/8) @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social: Die Proteste sind Folge von wirtschaftlichem Kollaps, urbaner Mobilisierung & außenpolitischer Bedrohungslage. Das Regime bleibt repressiv, doch seine Handlungsspielräume schrumpfen. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options

Really good analysis by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social of current situation in Iran protests and why this round of protests matters: is.gd/qiZRxT

Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options

Interesting analysis from @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on why the ongoing Iran protests are different than previous rounds. What's still unclear is whether they will end differently. irananalytica.substack.com/p/why-this-r...

There's reasons for Russia to worry:

I'm not going to speculate as to whether #Iran's regime will collapse - follow @alivaez.bsky.social @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social @hdagres.bsky.social @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

But were it to happen, it could be difficult for Russia to retain influence /3

Logo of "Nationalities Papers, The Journal of Nationalism and Ethnicity" displayed on a blue background with the hashtag #OpenAccess.

#OpenAccess from @nationalitiesp.bsky.social -

A Status Quo Power in a Changing Region: Iran’s Regionalism in the South Caucasus - https://cup.org/4pbZRcn

- VGolmohammadi & @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

#FirstView

Der politische Übergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angeführte Rebellenallianz gestürzt. Die...

In Syrien findet am Sonntag die erste Parlamentswahl nach dem Sturz Assads statt. In einem SWP-Aktuell erklären @sinemadar.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg, wie die EU beim Wiederaufbau unterstützen kann. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this @theeln.bsky.social piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social 👇‼️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532

A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes th...

Today, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 diplomats meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva, days before an end-of-August snapback deadline that would restore pre-2015 sanctions on Iran. @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

Deep Dive: ‘Nuclear ambiguity’ on horizon as Iran weighs options In the early hours of June 23, the United States launched a major military operation against key Iranian nuclear facilities, striking underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, and a c...

In his piece for @amwajmedia.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social assesses Iran’s options after the war with Israel - and how Tehran could use nuclear ambiguity to buy time, preserve its leverage, and quietly recalibrate.

Read the full article👇
amwaj.media/en/article/d...

Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iran‘s military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them. | Hamidreza Azizi Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iran‘s military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them.

Im Interview mit CNN äußerte sich @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social zu den Implikationen des jüngsten Krieges mit Israel für die strategische Ausrichtung des Iran. Dabei analysierte er Defizite in der iranischen Militärdoktrin und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Anpassungen.👇
www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidr...

How Iran Is Calculating Its War with Israel Facing a massive attack on its homeland, the Islamic Republic is in survival mode. Its war-time decision-making reflects this.

My new analysis for Middle East Council Om Global Affairs on #Iran's strategic calculations amid the ongoing war with #Israel
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/h...

Nice! Thanks again!

Thanks for your interest! 🙏

Everyone, please read this excellent assessment of the Israeli strikes by Hamidreza Azizi @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social.

I do wonder how the resistance in Iran would react to this, if it is indeed Israel's goal. There are few things worse than a destabilized and failed state.

This is a very comprehensive article analysing the rationale, strategies and possible responses by both Iran and Israel. Highly recommended. 👇