Haleema Saadia

After New START: What the End of U.S.-Russia Arms Control Means for South Asia – South Asian Voices The expiration of New START weakens global norms of restraint in ways that meaningfully reshape South Asian deterrence stability.

South Asian deterrence stability may increasingly depend on the initiative taken by India and Pakistan themselves.

Read the full article ⬇️
southasianvoices.org/nuc-f-pk-r-a...

7/end
#NukeSky

Reaffirm existing nuclear confidence-building measures, sustain dialogue channels, and revive Track 1.5 and Track 2 engagement.

In a world where great-power arms control is fading, regional responsibility matters even more.

6/7

The end of New START may not trigger an immediate arms race in South Asia.

But the erosion of global arms control weakens the normative environment that supports restraint, transparency, and predictability.

When major powers appear unconstrained, arguments for restraint carry less weight.

5/7

But South Asia is structurally different.
Compressed geography, short missile flight times, forward military deployments, and recurring crises mean escalation windows are extremely narrow.

Even small shifts in risk tolerance can have outsized consequences.

4/7

In South Asia, India and Pakistan institutionalized limited risk-reduction measures like the
1988 Agreement on Non-Attack of Nuclear Facilities and missile test pre-notification.

3/7

For decades, U.S.-Soviet &later U.S.-Russia arms control, from SALT I &SALT II to START I &New START Treaty, demonstrated that nuclear rivals could accept limits, verification, &transparency.

That example shaped global expectations of restraint.

Even outside the NPT, nuclear rivals took note.
2/7

My new article for Stimson Center's South Asian Voices:

After New START: What the End of U.S.-Russia Arms Control Means for South Asia

While India and Pakistan were never parties to New START, its expiration still matters for regional stability.

#NukeSky

1/7

Newsroom | 05-03-2026 | PakistanTV YouTube video by Pakistan TV

I shared my two cents on the Canada-India nuclear deal on Newsroom on Pakistan TV.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa5Q...

Gandhi Hospital in northern Tehran was damaged on March 1, 2026, when a strike was carried out near it during the US-Israeli war on Iran. [Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu]

Debris is scattered across wards and medical units after Gandhi Hospital and surrounding structures sustained heavy damage. [Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu]

Gandhi Hospital officials say the facility was fully evacuated and patients were transferred to other hospitals across Tehran. [Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu]

Residents inspect the aftermath of Israeli and US air strikes at Nilufar Square in the heart of the Iranian capital. [Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu]

The aftermath of ongoing Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s capital, Tehran https://aje.news/cseg4t

French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe.

New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...

Living near nuclear power plants is associated with higher cancer mortality, national US study reports A nationwide ecological study of US counties from 2000 to 2018 found that greater proximity to operational nuclear power plants was associated with higher cancer mortality rates, particularly among ad...

A recent study published in the journal Nature Communications reports higher cancer mortality rates in the United States (US) counties within 200 km of operational #nuclear energy plants compared with more distant counties
www.news-medical.net/news/2026030...

Thinking about the linkage btwn possible future French deployment of nuclear weapons to other European states & threat of nuclear use.

The original intent of US forward-deployed forces was to makenuclear first use more credible, but what does French fwd deployment sumbolize? Probably not that.

"Epic Fury" = "Large-scale disordered, destructive rage."

Fits.

🚨 NEW REPORT by @frank11285.bsky.social & @joelivre.bsky.social 🚨

The US & China both exaggerate the influence the other holds over Asia-Pacific states. In doing so, they misunderstand the region and fuel their own insecurity. 🧵👇
www.apln.network/projects/asi...

Causes and Effects of Chinese Nuclear Testing A Desire for Safety is a Headache for Arms Control

My latest Substack post, with some thoughts on Chinese testing, and some half-baked thoughts on its effects on the arms control framework.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/causes-and...

One thing notable as I consider this episode is that I am unaware of any Biden administration official—by name or on background—who has indicated the Trump admin is wrong about this event.

Exclusive: US intelligence agencies tie Chinese explosive test to push for a completely new nuclear arsenal | CNN Politics US intelligence agencies believe that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and has conducted at least one covert explosive test in recent years as part of a broader push to complete...

Tell me again how we are not in an arms race?

www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/p...

Proximity to nuclear power plants associated with increased cancer mortality | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health U.S. counties located closer to operational nuclear power plants have higher rates of cancer mortality than those located farther away, according to a new Harvard Chan School study.

Nuclear power kills: Harvard University found US counties closer to nuclear plants had higher cancer death rates than those farther away, even after accounting for socioeconomic, environmental and health factors.
#NoNukes #NukeSky

hsph.harvard.edu/news/proximi...

Pakistan jails two lawyers for 17 years over old tweets Two Pakistani human rights lawyers received 17-year sentences under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) after criticizing military abuses online, raising concerns about due process and free expression.

For years, Mazari and Chattha represented individuals who alleged abuse by powerful institutions. Today, they are the ones behind bars. @multithinker.bsky.social

ADHD Relief Music: Studying Music for Better Concentration and Focus, Study Music YouTube video by Greenred Productions - Relaxing Music

I listened to this while writing my dissertation.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG2I...

The fall of Qaddafi and its contribution to shaping Russia’s strategic outlook and policy on nuclear nonproliferation Vladimir Putin and other influential Russian figures portrayed Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi’s relinquishment of his nuclear program as a strategic error: they often declared that the decision f...

Russia’s takeaway from Libya was stark: Qaddafi gave up his nuclear weapons program and still fell. In our newest issue, Norman Cigar traces how that lesson shaped Putin’s strategic culture and Russia’s approach to nuclear nonproliferation.

doi.org/10.1080/1073...

Pretty strong accusation against China on testing. Does this mean the US is now going to have a "yield producing nuclear test" (6 years later?)? Will the US release any supporting evidence?

US accuses China of secret nuke testing as it calls for broader arms control treaty The US accused China Wednesday of conducting at least secret nuclear tests as Washington continued its push for a new arms control treaty.

The United States has now publicly accused China of conducting secret, very low yield underground nuclear tests designed to evade seismic detection, specifically on June 22, 2020, by exploding a device inside an underground cavern large enough to decouple the shockwave from the surrounding rock.

The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

My round-up👇 - 1/n

(More will be added over the next few days.)

#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

US UnderSecT DiNanno at the CD right now: bilateral arms control is impossible in 2026 because of China.

🚨 #BREAKING : US UNDER SECRETARY FOR ARMS CONTROL: BILATERAL TREATY WITH ONLY ONE OTHER NUCLEAR POWER IS SIMPLY INAPPROPRIATE IN 2026 & GOING FORWARD
X

It was a task.
I tackled it!
No way I'm letting it slip away without adding it to my list.
I’ll cross it off like I'm getting a gold star for 'Outstanding Task Completion.'

Russia-US nuclear pact set to end in 2026 and we won't see another After the New START treaty expires in February, there will be no cap on the number of US and Russian nuclear weapons - but some are sceptical about whether the deal actually made the world safer

After the New START treaty expires in February, there will be no cap on the number of US and Russian nuclear weapons - but some are sceptical about whether the deal actually made the world safer

'If it expires, it expires,' Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments o...

Mr. President, the last major nuclear arms control agreement with Russia is set to expire in a few weeks, allowing the world's two largest nuclear powers free to expand their arsenals without limit, what do you say? "If it expires, it expires"

My chapter on Far-right Communication is currently open access!
...Along with some other fantastic entries.
Check them out!

(And maybe go ahead and download them... while you can.)