@yardcg
Australian student, writer, modder. (He/him) Acronym = Yet Another Roguelike Dev (and) CinemaGoer. Fan of world cinema with a badly incomplete LB. https://boxd.it/ciP1z Has ascended NetHack. Knowing history changes lives.
Tbf, there were already articles speculating about "life after Khamenei" about a decade ago - when he was at a sprightly age of 77. I suspect he simply didn't want to spend what were already going to be his final months either way not seeing the sunlight.
www.aljazeera.com/opinions/201...
I.e. Lincoln not only NOT intending to fight the Russian Empire, but selling it the designs of one of the U.S.' most advanced weapons seems relevant to "understanding the past".
(Technically, it DID abolish serfdom in 1861 - though in a very gradual and inequitable manner)
bsky.app/profile/yard...
Such overhauls CAN be done, though. I. e. Egypt went from colonial leftover weapons, to a Soviet arsenal under Nasser, to a TON of U.S. weapons under Sadat and Mubarak (they have >1,000 Abrams tanks - 2nd only to the U.S itself) to gradually introducing PRC tech.
www.airdatanews.com/egypt-signal...
And yes, I know, I know, I am lumping together basic, intermediate and advanced trainers and excluding some of the German stuff (3k of the more advanced Bestmann, conversions of Bf. 109s, etc.) - but you get the point! Besides, this was RAF's most numerous, at ~9k.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havi...
The Luftwaffe's training pipeline was hilariously stunted. I am PROBABLY screwing something up here, but it appears that this was their most numerous trainer, at 5k (including exports to other Axis.) Compare to ~15k J-3 Cubs, 15k Texans, 10k Kaydets & 9k Valiants.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BC...
![Sanation (Polish: Sanacja, pronounced [saหnatอกsja]) was a Polish political movement that emerged in the interwar period, prior to Jรณzef Piลsudski's May 1926 Coup d'รtat, and gained influence following the coup. In 1928, its political activists went on to form the Nonpartisan Bloc for Cooperation with the Government (BBWR).[1][2][3]
The Sanation movement took its name from Piลsudski's goal of a moral "sanation" (healing) of the Polish body politic.[4] The movement functioned cohesively until Piลsudski's death in 1935. Following his death, Sanation fragmented into several factions, including "the Castle" (President Ignacy Moลcicki and his supporters).[5][1][2]
Sanation, which supported authoritarian rule, was led by a circle of Piลsudski's close associates, including Walery Sลawek, Aleksander Prystor, Kazimierz ลwitalski, Janusz Jฤdrzejewicz, Adam Koc, Jรณzef Beck, Tadeusz Hoลรณwko, Bogusลaw Miedziลski, and Edward ลmigลy-Rydz.[5] It emphasized the primacy of the national interest in governance, and opposed the system of parliamentary democracy.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o2psjjwfsd2zox25jnu3hsc4/bafkreigll46gbohzokwv3eur7xql7apskagpxxja4ywwm7rivpmxwddfia)
Sanation (Polish: Sanacja, pronounced [saหnatอกsja]) was a Polish political movement that emerged in the interwar period, prior to Jรณzef Piลsudski's May 1926 Coup d'รtat, and gained influence following the coup. In 1928, its political activists went on to form the Nonpartisan Bloc for Cooperation with the Government (BBWR).[1][2][3] The Sanation movement took its name from Piลsudski's goal of a moral "sanation" (healing) of the Polish body politic.[4] The movement functioned cohesively until Piลsudski's death in 1935. Following his death, Sanation fragmented into several factions, including "the Castle" (President Ignacy Moลcicki and his supporters).[5][1][2] Sanation, which supported authoritarian rule, was led by a circle of Piลsudski's close associates, including Walery Sลawek, Aleksander Prystor, Kazimierz ลwitalski, Janusz Jฤdrzejewicz, Adam Koc, Jรณzef Beck, Tadeusz Hoลรณwko, Bogusลaw Miedziลski, and Edward ลmigลy-Rydz.[5] It emphasized the primacy of the national interest in governance, and opposed the system of parliamentary democracy.
I really liked the comparison that this is like being in 1980s and assuming the only option to lead Poland after the collapse of PZPR would be the son of one of the 1930s junta members.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanation
They might not need to reach Taipei itself if they seize lots of other low-lying cities, maintain fire control over sea traffic to Taipei and then wait. I struggle to see why they would ever need to go and fight in the mountains at the center of the island. I don't understand what I'm missing. (Fin
If they only need to concentrate those >20k at a fairly minor city while receiving constant CAS, the same ships go back to mainland, load the second wave and come back to reinforce them - all within 24 hours. Then they do it again and again and again, inkblotting out. (4/5
People keep saying that the Strait is 110 miles/180 km - but from what I understand, a modern military ship crosses that in 6 hours at top speed? In fact, their ~1500 amphibious IFVs can apparently do that too - and are rated for 500 km distance. (3/5
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_05...
On the contrary, as the attacker, PRC has the luxury of concentrating their ships to strike at wherever the defence is at its thinnest. If they achieve constant Wing Loong surveillance, they could reposition their ships mid-strait while repositioning ROCAF forces via highways would be chaotic. (2/5
Shutterstock map of Taiwan.
Yes, let's talk about ports. Based on this, ROC have A LOT more coastal cities besides Taipei - cities that HAVE to have unobstructed ports. Can ROCAF maintain a meaningful presence in all of them at once? They might be much larger than any first wave on paper, but how much can they spread out? (1/5
They had to fight all over Iwo Jima to secure its airfields. That's a non-factor now (see how Pakistan's older PRC planes downed Indian Rafales, and realize that the Taiwanese would be facing PRC's newest in Rafale's predecessor), so they can just capture all the low-lying cities and wait.
I expect bombing focused on disabling ROCAF capacity to shoot missiles at ships/mainland (a la Iran) and to move vehicles effectively (a la Armenia).
I don't understand the relevance of the bunkers in the mountainous center. Ig ROCAF can sit there and starve once every coastal city is taken over.
If we extrapolate from what we have seen over Iran, ROCAF might not have anything LEFT to shoot at range before anything starts moving.
If anything - the PLAF could just wait until a devastating, climate change-fueled typhoon "justifies" their "disaster relief force".
bsky.app/profile/yard...
I would like to add one more point. The distance across the Taiwan Strait is actually remarkably similar to the distance between Washington, DC and Richmond. Why do you assume the PRC would give up if the first invasion fleet fails, when the Union tried and tried for almost 5 years until they won?
You should probably check the opinion of the Royal United Services Institute.
More importantly, not a single ship is likely to move until the possibility of missile fire from Taiwan itself had been more-or-less obliterated.
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www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
Wikipedia table of anti-ship missile types possessed by Iran. It lists 10 of them, but with no known numbers.
Indeed. One would be betting A LOT that by now, ALL of these missile types are N/A as in "no longer exist" and not "no exact quantity known". That missile at the top has a 300 km range - so it might reach the Strait from a comparatively "safe" eastern edge of Iran.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
Yes, the US/Israeli planes are absolutely hunting any potential launchers of such missiles. Yet, it's a short range & Iran is large - like Germany, France, the UK, Poland and Italy COMBINED. Chances are, neutering Taiwan's anti-ship capability would be much easier than this.
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Since when is Al-Qaeda "Iran themselves"?
And I suppose it's also worth noting that helicopters may not be such a great counter anymore - Ukraine has already proven it's not that hard to stick short-to-medium range anti-air missiles onto such boats.
theaviationist.com/2025/05/05/s...
!["Frontline strength (22 June 1941)
3.8 million personnel[1][2]
3,350โ3,795 tanks...2,735 tanks destroyed"](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:o2psjjwfsd2zox25jnu3hsc4/bafkreihsvg22tjqdjs56mmlyjio4cd4kyjofwct444yf64ec2psi4yjcru)
"Frontline strength (22 June 1941) 3.8 million personnel[1][2] 3,350โ3,795 tanks...2,735 tanks destroyed"
By the end of 1941, the Germans lost 72-81% of tanks they started Barbarossa with. I think I would call that a fairly pressing issue.
Sensors & processing systems AN/SPY-1D PESA 3D radar (Flight I, II, IIA) AN/SPY-6(V)1 AESA 3D radar (Flight III)
According to the wiki, only Flight III Burkes have an AESA - and there's only one of them. This article from November 2025 claims they just finished installing the AESA onto a *second* Burke.
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/th...
Moreover, most of their anti-ship missiles appear to be Harpoons and Hsiung Fengs 2 that are subsonic - and not even stealth. PRC air defences shot down stealth Storm Shadows in Pakistan - their escort ships are going to be carrying hundreds of those same interceptors.
bsky.app/profile/yard...
Read the above again. You have seen how Israel had been taking out tons of Iranian TELs, right? What makes you think Taiwanese anti-ship missile TELs are going to be more survivable when the PRC has a much larger air force than Israel and Taiwan is 45X smaller than Iran? (1/2)
What would stop them? They won't start moving anywhere before they are confident that the air force and rocket force had pulverised most threats to them on or around the island - and the frigates and destroyers escorting them would carry hundreds of SAMs to protect them from anything left.
that by the time any ship or amphibious IFV begins to land, the island would be hell of high-altitude drones picking off targets on their own or designating them for missiles on the mainland. Most Taiwanese tanks would not exist if they dared to move anywhere & neither would their anti-ship missiles
Moreover, have you seen how Azerbaijan dominated the Armenian skies and wrecked hundreds of vehicles with Bayraktars? Taiwan is not much larger than Armenia - and PRC has A LOT more such drones by now, which would be coming in after SEAD from their stealth planes and rocket force. Chances are
They won't need "thousands" of tanks when nearly all of Taiwanese armour is obsolete M60s. They specifically built 750 105mm assault guns and 750 IFVs that can cross the Strait in 6 hours (30 km/h naval speed) so that the ships would be limited to heavy equipment.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_05...
The Venezuelan military did not even connect their radars, with parts kept in storage.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
You also all know that Japan, the only country which STILL has scarred nuclear bomb survivors AND which had displaced 200,000 people due to Fukushima fairly recently, is still a democracy, right? 16% for, 60% against is a hell of a gap to overcome.
www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/01...
What the same report says about PRC's air defence, btw (on top of everything about >1,000 modern fighters they field, which is the bulk of the report.)
That, and we have already seen Chinese air defences in Pakistan down Storm Shadows.
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