Godt skriv! Swedish operating excellence
21.07.2025 21:18
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Godt skriv! Swedish operating excellence
18/x
All in all, I think the setup here is attractive, at EV/EBITDA 4x 2026e, clearly leveraging their cash position while the business has turned around to growth, and with an optimistic outlook on H2 profitability.
My first write-up on the case:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
17/x
In addition, three different insiders have been buying quite aggressively after the Q1 report, totalling ~$600k.
16/x
Illumin’s self-service solution. On a 12-month basis, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect an acquisition, especially if the underlying business continues to show consistent growth. Meanwhile looking for acquisitions, they are buying back shares, up to 10% of the float
15/x
They are now in a position to actively leverage their balance sheet for acquisitions, having demonstrated consistent growth. They are exploring opportunities to acquire companies with established customer bases, especially those where they see a need for
14/x
At the moment, I admire just as much that the new CEO has a very shareholder-centric and proactive approach while the underlying business is being restructured. In the Q1 call, Cairns mentioned the use of the cash pile.
13/x
Even in Q1, despite tough market conditions, Illumin delivered strong growth and remained confident about an H2 inflection point. However, these are all optionalities that could turn it from an “index outperformer” into a “multibagger.”
12/x
help but notice plenty of similarities with another small Canadian ad tech firm that went through a tremendous turnaround - Zoomd Technologies.
11/x
double-digit growth in the high teens for at least the next couple of years. In H2, profitability will be demonstrated, crossing the breakeven revenue target for meaningful margin improvement. There are many early signs of operational excellence at Illumin, where I can’t
10/x
As managed service and self-service become a bigger part of the revenue share going forward, this will also benefit margins positively. The impact of the "Cairns effect" on overall growth has been clear since his arrival, and I think we can expect
9/x
where self-service clients could benefit greatly from managed services, and vice versa. Q3 2024 was a turning point, since managed services showed a slight YoY increase for the first time in many quarters, followed by +28% growth in Q4.
8/x
self-service platform. Cairns wanted to change that, since he saw the margins and the fact that managed services accounted for roughly 50% of revenue. He didn’t like relying solely on self-service high growth. He saw a lot of unused synergy potential,
7/x
as the investments ease. Managed service was very disappointing and a key indicator of the turnaround by the new CEO, Simon Cairns. The former CEO had no problem with managed services' revenue decline, despite being a good-margin business. Thereby, he only focused on the
6/x
switch all of our business - especially if we don’t have to be beholden in tight times to a $4–6 million upfront commitment.’" These investments in the new tool won’t continue in coming quarters. Management has guided that especially in H2, profitability will be shown,
5/x
“It is available elsewhere, but it is typically reserved for large upfront contracts and big commitments. When we talk to these brands, these challenger brands are like, ‘Hey, if you had Forecaster, we might flip you some of our business or we might
4/x
The Illumin Forecasting Tool is a new campaign forecasting feature built into the platform, helping marketers predict, plan, and optimize digital campaigns across various media channels before launch.
3/x
average spend increase by 30%. They expect profitability to improve drastically in H2, partly due to high expenses in H1, where they had to build up the sales and account management team, and due to investments like the Forecasting Tool launched on May 29.
2/x
They mentioned seeing a higher level of activity continuing from the second half of Q1, and more importantly, increased momentum in managed services. Also, the big client that exited self-service was masking the underlying growth, where they added 18 new clients and saw
Some thoughts on Illumins H2, my biggest position.
1/x
At the Q1 report, they stressed macroeconomic uncertainty and the fact that marketing budgets were approved later than normal, but ended with a quite optimistic outlook on coming quarters.
fornuftig underlying growth. Den OEM var også en low-margin kunde, som dermed også bidrager til margin expansion.
Godt skriv! Som du selv siger bliver H2 nok pænere end, de tal vi kommer til at se til august. Vigtigt at påpege, at der er én større OEM, som ikke fortsætter ind i 2025, som har en relativ stor indflydelse på den konservative guidance for 2025. Ekskluderer vi den hedder guidance dog +5-12% growth -
Presentation of the 2024 Annual Report with Q&A as well www.inderes.dk/videos/windo...
Thank you for reading!
Mikkel som var en af de få som deltog på Windowmaster generalforsamling i går, her er hans input fra mødet.
Windowmaster 2024:
-Vækst på 24%
-Orderbook vækst 11%
-Scaler EBT kraftigt til 4,1%
-Har 2026 målsætning om mindst 10% EBT margin, de skal vækste en del i 2026 for at nå denne målsætning
-Betaler udbytte på 0,41 kr hvilket svarer til 4,5% yield
🙏🙏
WindowMaster - Danish Nano-Cap at 3.7x EBIT
I have initiated a position in the company, seeing an attractive margin of safety with strong parallels to other previously overlooked nanocaps in Scandinavia. Read my take on the case here:
open.substack.com/pub/williamj...
#Pricer på 9 kr hade jag nog inte kunnat tro. Visst finns det frågetecken inför Q1 och framtiden men 2025 kommer bli ett bra år och aktien är nog väldigt billig här på 2 års sikt.