JN117

Happy TWiVersary :-) Thanks for letting us listen in on your discussions. I've learned a lot too!

I wish the outcome had been very different. So disappointing.

Either the authors or I am having a malfunction -- I do not see the graphs/figures anywhere in the paper nor on the web site.

RFK uses many of the same rhetorical tricks over and over again.

It’s tempting to play whack-a-mole with every rumor, but research shows a better (and less exhausting) method: “prebunking” — or teaching people to recognize the patterns used to sell falsehoods.

Today's post does just that 👇🏽

Most flu deaths this century were recorded in 2025, ABS finds There were more deaths associated with influenza last year than any other year this century, according to the Australia Bureau of Statistics.

Australia: "Most flu deaths this century were recorded in 2025, ABS finds"

Last Year (2025):

🔹COVID-19: ~2,161 deaths
🔹Influenza: ~1,701 deaths
🔹RSV: ~582 deaths

This was a really cool experiment. Thank you all for this excellent contribution to our understanding!
(I've been reading "Air-Borne." It is just fascinating how understanding airborne transmission-- despite it crucial importance to our lives--has not been a greater focus of humanity's efforts.)

Also, the "test negative" approach used in the study might only only detect sequelae that happen at a greater rate for COVID than for other respiratory illnesses. The comparator group all were all being tested for COVID, suggesting they had symptomatic viral illness.

Not sure the study is capable of supporting the authors' conclusions.
I don't think medical records ever capture when conditions go away.
Probably the study is simply finding that most new Long Covid conditions are first diagnosed in the first year after infection.

Researchers: Not testing for Covid-19 is creating problems People have become sicker after the pandemic, but without Covid-19 testing it's difficult to understand why.

Surprisingly comprehensive article on recent research in Nordic countries showing health impacts of COVID-19 on cognitive problems, health care utilization, and rates of depression.
www.sciencenorway.no/covid19-long...

Evaluating modes of influenza transmission (EMIT-2): Insights from lack of transmission in a controlled transmission trial with naturally infected donors Author summary Human-to-human influenza virus transmission under controlled conditions could provide insights leading to better control of epidemics and pandemics. However, a previous study using labo...

Thank you for this research!
It is interesting to see infection readily established in this study. Yet another recent study failed to cause influenza transmission using naturally infected people. Quite a puzzle.
journals.plos.org/plospathogen...

That is a nice summary. The full research article is here:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/...

Thank you for explaining this.

Very nice! Did this project require any outside air system (i.e. HRV/ERV)?

Cidara Therapeutics Announces Positive Topline Results from its Phase 2b NAVIGATE Trial Evaluating CD388, a Non-Vaccine Preventative of Seasonal Influenza - Cidara Therapeutics

I agree.
They mention 28-week protection in this press release (which would cover flu season).
There were 33 cases (2.8%) of flu in placebo group versus 8 (0.7%) in the CD388 group (450 mg dose).

Conceptually, it reminds me of lenacapavir for prevention of HIV.

www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...

www.cidara.com
Cidara Therapeutics is currently in a Phase 3 trial of a long-acting anti-viral against all strains of influenza.

In earlier human testing (n=5,000), the preventive medication was 76% effective with a single 450 mg sub-cutaneous dose.

Cidara Therapeutics Reaches Target Enrollment of Phase 3 ANCHOR Trial Evaluating CD388 for Prevention of Seasonal Influenza in High-Risk Populations - Cidara Therapeutics Target enrollment of 6,000 participants completed in the Northern Hemisphere Planned interim analysis in Q1 2026 will determine potential need for additional enrollment during Southern Hemisphere flu ...

"CD388... is a long-acting antiviral designed to achieve universal prevention of seasonal and pandemic influenza with a single dose by directly inhibiting viral proliferation"
"..is administered as a one-time 450-milligram subcutaneous dose"
www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...

Cidara Therapeutics Reaches Target Enrollment of Phase 3 ANCHOR Trial Evaluating CD388 for Prevention of Seasonal Influenza in High-Risk Populations - Cidara Therapeutics Target enrollment of 6,000 participants completed in the Northern Hemisphere Planned interim analysis in Q1 2026 will determine potential need for additional enrollment during Southern Hemisphere flu ...

This is quite interesting. There is a Phase 3 pivotal trial with 6,000 people enrolled right now!
CD388 is a one-time subcutaneous dose.
www.cidara.com/news/cidara-...

Further in the article, they describe CD388 as "prevents the virus from unclipping , so that the virus is no longer infectious ... by attacking a protein that is essential for replication, the molecule works against every influenza mutation". So it is an anti-viral.

Happy New Year!

GOOD NEWS! Researchers have shown Alzheimer’s disease can be REVERSED- not just prevented. Using a potent neuroprotective compound called P7C3-A20, they found RESTORING balance to a central cellular energy molecule (NAD+) not only PREVENTED disease features but REVERSED them, EVEN at late stages.

By the way, Bluesky posted recently that they restored access to >18 in MS.

bsky.app/profile/bsky...

Debating Science: No Thanks Anti-vaccine activists RFK Jr., Aaron Siri, and Steve Kirsch have asked that I debate them on vaccine safety. One of them offered me $1 million to do it. Here’s why I declined.

open.substack.com/pub/pauloffi...
What do you do if someone offers you $1 million dollars to debate vaccine safety?

There is a new HHS web page about Lyme.

www.hhs.gov/lyme/index.h...

There were some unpleasant common side effects.
investor.lilly.com/news-release...

Wishing you a speedy full recovery.

How HGTV star Tarek El Moussa's cancer, spotted by fan, changed his life Now in remission after a thyroid-cancer battle, the star of HGTV's "Flip or Flop" is thankful for a nurse who suggested a biopsy.

Good point.
Perhaps it is somewhat like the case where a nurse wrote to a TV actor suggesting he get a lump on his throat checked.

www.today.com/today/amp/td...

you could track it down to a small number of houses or buildings and then seek individual permission to go further. That way it preserves informed consent, if that even applies.

I would want to know. Pemgarda and Paxlovid would then be on my shopping list.

Is COVID "mild"?

In a study of 9,000 people who had COVID in 2024, COVID was so "mild" that 24-26% of people had at least one symptom lasting 84 days (fatigue, shortness of breath/respiratory distress, cough, or smell/taste disorder) that they don't have prior.

www.shionogi.com/global/en/ne...

The 5 pre-specified symptoms were fatigue, dyspnea or respiratory distress, cough, smell disorder, taste disorder.