Matt

Most westerners don’t know this, but in Iranian culture killing someone’s family is considered a grave insult.

i am not saying the jar of rice was spilled all over the kitchen but if it was, please put all the rice back in the jar

ground troops?

it was crazy to read that khamenei (sr) was just sitting in his office when they got him. last true believer in US/Israeli state-actor rationality

the enemy is getting really weirdly upset about operation Everyone's Families Are Fair Game

its cool how we’ve spent decades anticipating this exact scenario where a cornered iran would mine or otherwise deny access to the strait and the US gov is just like “woah, no idea they’d play this card in response to [operation: no iranian government official left alive]”

the strategic genius in action:

the *current* shortfall (shifts in behavior anticipating a supply crunch) is priced in, they just dont have any idea how long it will last

hegseth and rubio would have just as much fun blowing up schools in cuba

nobody wants this crisis except trump for some reason

they wouldnt have if the climate’s strongest soldier hadnt nudged them

Also recently, donald j trump?

cato remains the only still existing right-leaning think tank to survive the trump cultural revolution with their mind intact

Theres a lot of moving parts and one of them is that a bunch of asian refiners have throttled already (setting us up for a refined products issue) and theres the G7 reserve discussion. Which turns this from a real pinch scenario to something that can stretch a bit more

i mean the market is a bunch of guys tracking fundamentals, they are not international politics experts

ah, that would be because they did

welp

i feel like if they wanted to reassure commodities markets, they would probably note that they did not in fact lay any mines before getting whacked

which would be bad and very obvious violations of the LOAC

i think he is going to hit civilian infrastructure, what he floated at the press conference

If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! President DONALD J. TRUMP

mr president i don't think this is going to be effective

anyone model what that impact will look like? say we nearly zero out MidEast oil exports for 4 weeks?

im not a commodities guy but if the crisis is resolved before the crunch is felt (shipments stop arriving) in say 1-2 months, we still get a mini crunch, right? markets have to ration available oil and we’re out 20% until the ships start arriving again with a 1-2 mo lag time?

"If you are tracking the impact of AI on labor markets, CEO statements are the worst way to measure it." Amen, @marthagimbel.bsky.social! @hamiltonproject.org #AIPlusWork

looks like he was just lying, i dont think this ever took place

i have so many questions

im sorry what

strong 2nd this; it feels kind of decadent to be like "PAIN AT DA PUMP????" when there's still bombs flying