Join us live on Wednesday, the day before the Bank of England's crunch November meeting, for a conversation between James Smith and Chris Turner on Britain's economic outlook, the Autumn Budget, and prospects for UK assets.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end.
EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.
More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...
This month's Economic Update covers trade developments, France's political drama, the Lisa Cook affair, & our forecasts for the global economy.
Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.
More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...
We think the discussion at next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be more controversial than markets are currently pricing in.
Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
100 days since ECB President Christine Lagarde’s call for a 'global euro' moment, our team looks at whether progress has been made in boosting the euro’s global role, and whether investors are buying into the vision.
think.ing.com/reports/100-...
Unlike the markets, we still reckon there's a decent chance the Bank of England will cut rates again in November.
But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.
think.ing.com/articles/ban...
100 days since ECB President Lagarde’s call for a “global euro” moment, has Europe made progress – and are investors convinced? Join our webinar next Wednesday to find out.
📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Not a fan of Oasis or puns? Look away now.
ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.
Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...
President Trump has said the Fed is too late to cut interest rates, but it's not too late to sign up for our webinar today in which we discuss this after the key US inflation release.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Germany's economy shrinks.
"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.
think.ing.com/snaps/german...
Our all-important cheat sheet is out ahead of the ECB's rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.
Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...
The stronger euro and latest tariff threats have added to the ECB's disinflationary concerns.
In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.
think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
The bottom line is that the UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling – and, it is cooler than in other major economies.
However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...
In our recent FX Talking, we explain why we are expecting a temporary correction in EUR/USD over the coming months as tariff-driven US price pressures start to emerge.
Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...
June was one of the hottest months ever in Western Europe, and don't expect things on the economic front to cool down anytime soon. ING's Carsten Brzeski looks at what to expect for the rest of the summer
think.ing.com/articles/no-...
Trump’s 50% tariff is unlikely to boost US copper production. Why?
The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.
Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.
think.ing.com/articles/tru...
Asia has been hit with fresh tariff rates. Of the 14 countries that received tariff letters, nine were in Asia.
The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.
think.ing.com/articles/new...
🌎 On 9 July, reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume unless formal trade deals like US/UK or US/China are finalised.
What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:
think.ing.com/articles/us-...
Many of us have turned to ChatGPT to help with writing an email, summarising a report, or even brainstorming ideas. But in doing so, are we not just outsourcing our tasks, but our thinking too?
Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?
think.ing.com/articles/ai-...
🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...
What's coming up next week...
Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.
think.ing.com/articles/thi...
The economic impact of the Israel/Iran tensions. What it means for energy markets, central banks, FX, rates and credit.
think.ing.com/articles/mid...
It's not every day ING's Carsten Brzeski compares the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies: full of drama and action but hard to follow.
As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.
think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...
While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November.
Rachel Reeves may be smiling here, but the real challenge lies ahead as she hunts for extra cash in a tight fiscal landscape.
ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.
think.ing.com/articles/fin...
The ECB has cut interest rates to the lowest level since December 2022, bringing the deposit rate to 2%.
With the risk of inflation undershooting currently increasing, today’s rate cut will not be the last.
think.ing.com/snaps/ecb-cu...
Our ECB cheat sheet for Thursday...
A 25bp ECB rate cut is highly likely, but significant inflation revisions, little weight on the neutral rate debate, and lingering growth risks should leave a dovish aftertaste.
More here 👉 think.ing.com/articles/jun...
What the Polish presidential election result means for the country's future economic prospects.
think.ing.com/snaps/poland...
How Trump might bypass US courts to continue his tariff agenda: think.ing.com/articles/how...
@mariekeblom.bsky.social spoke to the @financialtimes.com about how the EU has a unique chance to capitalise on investor doubts about the US and promote the euro as a reserve currency. Read the full article here on ING THINK: think.ing.com/opinions/mar...
