Brad Keithley

It was excellent. I am looking forward to digging into all ... what did Brett say ... 116 slides?

You are welcome. I write a weekly column that appears in the Landmine as well as elsewhere. And yes, that is exactly the quote I had in mind when I said Begich is proposing to continue deep PFD cuts (the "most regressive tax ever proposed").

🤷 He (Begich) also wants to continue deep PFD cuts, "the most regressive [personal] tax ever proposed."

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Alaska v. Alaskans Recently, we were in a discussion in which a participant argued that there is no basis for concern about the Alaska economy (nor, by implication, about Alaska families). Their view was that, while it ...

As the originator, the chart uses 1984 as the starting point b/c that's as far back as the Census Bureau maintains the data. But the results are largely the same regardless of which subsequent year is used as the starting point. We used 2000 in this week's column. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

Do you know if there's a similar analysis for economic/fiscal policy?

As an option? Technically, it's feasible, but it's got a LOT of associated challenges, risks, and costs (not the least of which is the considerable distance out to a loading dock because of shallow water) that, if you can believe it, make it less attractive even than the pipeline.

Exclusive: US mulled use of Russia icebreakers for gas development ahead of summit-sources The United States has had internal discussions on using Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker vessels to support the development of gas and LNG projects in Alaska as one of the possible deals to aim for when President Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin on Friday, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Exclusive: US mulled use of Russia icebreakers for gas development ahead of summit - sources #akleg
www.reuters.com/business/ene...

The Friday column: What every state candidate (and campaign manager) should prepare for This week, we dive into EIA's most recent oil price forecast and explain why it's something every state candidate (and campaign manager) should be thinking about

ICYMI. This Week's Friday Column| This week, we dive into EIA's most recent oil price forecast and explain why it's something every state candidate (and campaign manager) should be thinking about. #akleg

Ummmm, you see that watermark down in the lower right? It literally says "AI." It was some of Jeff's usual satire ...

Alaska Legislature fails to override $87 million education funding veto | Alaska Beacon State lawmakers now turn their attention to legislation that proposes a permanent increase to education funding.

Interestingly, you and David Eastman agree on that point. alaskabeacon.com/2024/01/18/a... ("During the debate that preceded the vote, Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, said that based on the language of the Alaska Constitution, a vote on a veto override is required, not just optional.")

🤦‍♂️ I am mostly finished with the charts for this week's @alaskalandmine column on another subject, but Sean Maguire's @adn.com piece on the PF is SO incomplete that I am going to refocus on that instead. #holdmycalls

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The badly unbalanced “balanced budget” Fiscal analysts use multiple lenses to evaluate whether a government budget is “balanced.” One is in an accounting sense of whether overall revenues equal overall spending. But that’s not the only len...

"Balanced" deserves air quotes. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The $100,000 Dividend Last month we wrote a couple of columns on these pages discussing the Tax Avoidance Dividend (or TAD). The TAD is the flip side of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The PFD is the portion of Permanen...

... by taking money from middle and lower-income Alaska families, making them poorer, and protecting the Top20%, non-residents and oil companies from having to contribute also, making them better off. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The $100,000 Dividend Last month we wrote a couple of columns on these pages discussing the Tax Avoidance Dividend (or TAD). The TAD is the flip side of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD). The PFD is the portion of Permanen...

🤷 That's simple. They're being used to protect the Top20%, non-residents and the oil companies from paying a share of the increased costs of government. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: It’s all about the base For some, the 2014 pop song “All About That Bass” is a long-forgotten “one-hit wonder.” For others, it’s an earworm – a recurring tune that occasionally pops up and sticks in your mind involuntarily. ...

While more regressive than an income tax, no sales tax hits middle and lower income #AKfams harder than PFDcuts. (ISER's Berman: "PFD cuts are the MOST regressive tax ever proposed.") alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ WTF.

#akleg

oilprice.com/Energy/Crude...

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: A relook at sales taxes Over the years, we have been less than supportive of using a statewide sales tax to help address Alaska’s fiscal deficits. While certainly not as regressive as using cuts in the Permanent Fund Dividen...

A sales tax isn't even remotely as regressive as PFD cuts. An ultra broad based sales tax takes even less. And a flat tax takes much less than PFD cuts restore for 80% of #AKfams. alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br... #DoTheMath

Oh, that's not accurate. We raise a significant share of revenue also from oil tax reforms.

I would be interested in seeing the numbers behind your proposed progressive income tax. As discussed in the column, because of the limited base one designed like the old one would require huge rates. #akleg

🤷 The details are in the column, Dermot. There's even a chart that summarizes them and totals the numbers. I suppose I could repeat the entire column here, but it's only a 6-minute or so read ... and I take the time to read yours. #akleg

🤷 Like a newspaper editorial page, our columns are separate from other parts of the Landmine. Those who read them realize -and often criticize them - for diverging significantly from the opinions expressed elsewhere on those pages.

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Revenues Those who follow these columns know that we have been discussing for nearly all of the time we have been writing them the fiscal sinkhole into which the state gradually has been sliding over most of t...

We address the options - and $$- in detail here. We would raise about $500mil by closing the Hilcorp loophole and other oil tax reform. We raise the remainder through a combination of former Rep. Ben Carpenter's ultra broad sales tax and a flat tax. #akleg alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

The Majority hasn't even introduced a basic bill to fix the Hilcorp Loophole, much less revise #OilTaxes or raise personal revenues in other ways than through PFDcuts ("the most regressive tax ever proposed"). I would suggest the problem starts with the Majority's failure to even try.

🤔 Despite the extended rhetoric, in all fairness Rep. Jimmie, you, and the others in the House Majority just voted once again to protect the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos at the expense of middle & lower-income #AKfams. #AnotherSessionAnotherFail #akleg

The deficit numbers are actually much worse if viewed from the perspective of current law. She only gets them as low as she does by assuming deep PFD cuts (ISER's Berman: "the most regressive tax ever") before even starting the discussion.

AJOC has been reduced to reprints from the ADN. ABM is mostly puff pieces for the industry (it's advertisers). I haven't seen anything from Ava White that drills in on the financial side, but I'll try to be on the lookout.

🤔 Alaska has some very good political reporters & commentators. It has virtually zero in the way of financial (think Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg-type) reporters. Which isn't good for a state that depends so much on financial (oil & investment) assets. #akleg

🤔 Don't you think the bigger question is how we pay for ... any of it?

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: The real Permanent Fund reform that’s needed Earlier this month, three groups - Alaska Common Ground, the Institute of the North, and Commonwealth North - co-hosted a forum entitled “Protecting the Permanent Fund: A Rules-Based Permanent Fund En...

Except, their own numbers say they're not ... alaskalandmine.com/landmines/br...

🤔

#akleg