Empty Bag of Ducks📎

I was thoroughly impressed with her during her tenure as the JSJ5.

And the tankers may have to go the long way round if the Houthis target them in the BAM

Like, you can have a limited war and expected limited returns. That’s a thing. But limited war executed with the idea that it will solve ALL the problems and net a huge strategic victory AND not escalate to something you hadn’t bargained for - well. Sorry, no.

I’ve cancelled what I want to post five times

It was the publication of the casualty lists in the papers that contributed to setting off the NYC Draft Riots in 1863.

It’s not just the strait. So again, do we want a failed state with access to the ENTIRE Persian Gulf?

Bingo.

That said, give T. J. Stiles‘ The Trials of Custer a read.

I’m curious where you end up taking this as there is a gigantic historiography to grapple with in American history regarding ”The West” or “The Frontier.” Seems like you will have to work through that just to define it.

And one final point, because of the procurement timelines, essentially, we’re fighting a war in 2026 with a force structure largely the result of budget decisions made in the late 1990s. I’m exaggerating a bit, but not much.

All of this to say that a SecNav and CNO can have the best intentions in the world, but they have to compete for $$$ with the other Services and operate under rules/constraints established by the politicals in OSD.

After the POM briefs comes a budget review that makes sure things the Services committed to the previous cycle but aren’t complete are still funded and that joint requirements are met. For example, USAF doesn’t need all those C17s and the Navy doesn’t need sealift: but the Army does!

Navy: Hey DoD, you told me I must fund “X.” Well, here’s how that fucks the rest of my budget, see all this important stuff I can no longer fund?

DoD: Grow up, stop grandstanding, and come back in 72 hours with a serious submission

Kid you not, have seen stuff like that. Quite passionate

Oh yeah, Congress can also tell them what they must fund. So the Services take the top line number they’ve been given and try to make all this fit. They never have enough money to fund it all, and hard choices are made. That can make POM briefs popcorn worthy.

BUT WAIT, after doing their baseline analysis, the Services now must confront DoD’s budget input called the Defense Planning Guidance. This classified document provides very detailed guidance for each of the Services on what they must fund and what they are allowed to incur risk by not funding

From that analysis you establish how much “stuff” you need to do what DoD asks you to do. I’m horribly simplifying, but analysis IS done. Then there are other costs that get factored in (sustainment like parts, etc). It all goes into the gonculator.

The Russian hordes in Western Europe and the North Korean hordes on the Peninsula. The Services then put their Ops Research folks to work to wargame out those scenarios and establish an analytical baseline to support the budget submission. In the Army we call it Total Army Analysis (TAA)

The Services don’t get to say “here are the toys I want, please pay for them.” Rather, for the building of the budget they are (usually, but notably in the first Trump administration were NOT) given Defense Planning Scenarios. These *should* be tied to the NDS. Cold War was defeat both…..

This has been gnawing at me all day, so now I want to talk budgets. I spent the last several years sitting through the Service POM briefs as well as participating in the CAPE led budget reviews as the overall DoD budget was adjudicated and “balanced.” This is very process driven

The President is not playing chess. The President is eating the pieces, pooping them out, then throwing the poop at people.

I got smart about it later in my career, but for a long time didn’t understand nuclear weaponeering, especially for “lower” yield weapons.

True statement. Naval War college better than Air War College

Yeah. I saw the post and the first thing I thought of was whether all 30 miles were navigable for deep draft vessels. Common sense dictates you’re not getting too close to Iran either.

Articles like this make me wonder what these people think leadership IS. For me, it was simple and learned from a VP at Miller Brewing. “Leadership,” he told me, “is getting other people to do what you want them to do without them calling you an asshole.” Worked for 40 years in multiple settings

I feel less intelligent just for having read the article. 🤦‍♂️

A mentor once taught me that idiots use buzzwords as a substitute for actual knowledge.

But only six miles are navigable. Two x two mile wide channels with a two mile buffer zone.

a man with a beard is smiling while sitting at a desk ALT: a man with a beard is smiling while sitting at a desk

Everything is bad, but at least I can focus on my dissertation chapter about how the British in 1915 didn’t have the navy to force a strait when it needed to because it spent the previous decades funding their army’s misadventures in unimportant areas that turned into expensive quagmires.

The Inside Story of an American Warship Doomed by Its Own Navy Investigation finds officials ignored warnings for years before one of the deadliest crashes in decades.

Great article that highlights the consequences of the stress that gets put on the Navy and the underfunding.
features.propublica.org/navy-acciden...