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Craig Helmstetter

@craigstetter

Data geek. Ph.D. Sociologist. Minnesotan. Member: AAPOR, ASA. Former: Managing Partner, APM Research Lab (American Public Media's data journalism hub); Wilder Research/MN Compass; Community Indicators Consortium president; MN Legislative Auditor's Office

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08.09.2023
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Latest posts by Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter

word cloud: Democrats thoughts on what motivates Republican voters

word cloud: Democrats thoughts on what motivates Republican voters

word cloud: Republicans thoughts on what motivates Democratic voters

word cloud: Republicans thoughts on what motivates Democratic voters

My latest with Eric Plutzer: A look at NEW @pennstateuniv.bsky.social Mood of the Nation Poll

Democrats up +5️⃣ in Congressional generic ballot

Plus:
REASONS for votes via open-ends🤔

AND voter's thoughts about logic of rival voters🤯

democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-... @democracyminute.bsky.social

10.03.2026 22:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Two Loppets and a Birkie A mid-packer’s look at the courses, competition, logistics, swag and vibes of the 2026 City of Lakes Loppet, Vasaloppet USA and American Birkebeiner

You saw Kleabo and Diggins in the Olympics — this is how a regular person experiences cross country ski racing

open.substack.com/pub/craigste...

#Birkie #Nordic #Skiing #XCskiing #glitter

05.03.2026 21:03 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Where Minnesotans Stand on Immigration Enforcement New statewide probability survey findings from Lumaris Research, including a full report, slide deck, and related research. Enter your email to gain free access.

My latest, via @lumaris.com

www.lumaris.com/blog/where-m...

26.02.2026 20:49 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement New statewide representative survey reveals Minnesotans’ experiences with immigration enforcement. Join Lumaris for the briefing.

What are Minnesotans actually thinking and experiencing amid the recent immigration enforcement surge?

Join Lumaris Research for the first release of new statewide survey data capturing real voices from across Minnesota.

📅 Feb 25 | 10 AM CT

🔗 Register: www.eventbrite.com/e/where-minn...

24.02.2026 19:48 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement New statewide representative survey reveals Minnesotans’ experiences with immigration enforcement. Join Lumaris for the briefing.

Join me for a FREE @lumaris.com webinar this Wed (2/25) @ 10:00 Central

Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement

Includes a look at how opinions & experiences differ according to political affiliation and immigrant status

www.eventbrite.com/e/where-minn...

23.02.2026 14:21 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Minnesotans opposed Operation Metro Surge by a wide margin, most said it made communities less safe 54% of Minnesotans opposed the heightened presence of federal immigration agents, while 31% supported the increase and 15% were not sure.

First MN probability-based survey on immigration surge:
-Minnesotans opposed it by 54%-31% margin
-59% said it made communities less safe
-1 in 3 worried someone close to them could be arrested by federal immigration agents

www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

#Minnesota #PublicOpinion #immigration

20.02.2026 16:49 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Minnesotans opposed Operation Metro Surge by a wide margin, most said it made communities less safe 54% of Minnesotans opposed the heightened presence of federal immigration agents, while 31% supported the increase and 15% were not sure.

My latest: New findings from @lumaris.com's Minnesota Community Survey

www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

Included at that link: Sign up for a webinar digging in to these findings and much more (2/25 @ 10am Central)

20.02.2026 15:15 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

76% of Minnesotans say violence against political leaders is a big problem, with only 4 points separating Rs and Ds.

-Minnesota Community Survey, 9/25-11/6, 2025 ⬇️

lumaris.com/blog/3-in-4-minnesotans-say-political-violence-is-a-big-problem-but-how-much-worse-will-it-get/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

18.02.2026 00:34 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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⛸️ Minnesota's favorite Winter Olympic sport depends on who you ask Figure skating holds a special place in Minnesotans’ hearts, with over 1 in 3 saying it is their favorite Winter Olympics sport. Hockey comes in a distant second (1 in 5), followed by Alpine skiing (1...

Hey fellow Minnesotans: The Olympics starts today & we have sent more athletes than any other state besides CO.

What are our favorite Winter Olympic sports?

New results from Lumaris Research's Minnesota Community Survey...

www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

@lumarispoll.bsky.social

06.02.2026 15:02 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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⛸️ Minnesota's favorite Winter Olympic sport depends on who you ask Figure skating holds a special place in Minnesotans’ hearts, with over 1 in 3 saying it is their favorite Winter Olympics sport. Hockey comes in a distant second (1 in 5), followed by Alpine skiing (1...

The Winter Olympics start today and we polled Minnesotans on their favorite sport.

56% of MN women say figure skating, while men favor hockey (32%).

Only 1% said cross-country skiing. Jessie Diggins, we're sorry. 😬

lumaris.com/blog/minnesotas-favorite-winter-olympic-sport-depends-on-who-you-ask/

06.02.2026 15:18 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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⛸️ Minnesota's favorite Winter Olympic sport depends on who you ask Figure skating holds a special place in Minnesotans’ hearts, with over 1 in 3 saying it is their favorite Winter Olympics sport. Hockey comes in a distant second (1 in 5), followed by Alpine skiing (1...

Hey fellow Minnesotans: The Olympics starts today & we have sent more athletes than any other state besides CO.

What are our favorite Winter Olympic sports?

New results from Lumaris Research's Minnesota Community Survey...

www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

@lumarispoll.bsky.social

06.02.2026 15:02 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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3 in 4 Minnesotans say political violence is a big problem. But how much worse will it get? As the 2026 election cycle begins, the vast majority of Minnesota Republicans and Democrats agree that violence directed at political leaders is a big problem in the United States today, according to ...

New survey results from Lumaris Research's Minnesota Community Survey:

www.lumaris.com/blog/3-in-4-...

@lumarispoll.bsky.social

05.02.2026 20:50 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I hadn't heard that. Thanks for the heads up! I have no insider knowledge on this, but will post here if I happen to find out anything interesting about the change.

I thought the U did a great job collecting & maintaining the wastewater data complete with downloads, etc. I hope MDH does as well!

05.02.2026 20:49 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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The Voters Who Have Taken a U-Turn on Trump

One year later, the shifts toward Trump have vanished, via Nate Cohn in the latest Times/Siena poll.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/u...

22.01.2026 13:56 👍 61 🔁 20 💬 8 📌 3
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New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while Trump approval sinks on immigration, deportations, and public safety

New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

21.01.2026 13:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Are 3,000 ICE agents ‘disproportionate’ to Twin Cities police forces? Their presence is bigger than the 10 largest metro police departments combined.

Latest on the federal forces in Minnesota from me and my colleague Jeff Hargarten:

There are now more federal immigration agents in MN than the 10 largest Twin Cities police departments combined.

9% of ICE is in MN right now, even though MN has less than 1% of the nation's undocumented immigrants.

13.01.2026 22:55 👍 290 🔁 156 💬 12 📌 9
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Most Minnesotans support legal cannabis, but few say it has made things better Minnesotans broadly support legal cannabis, but most say it hasn't changed their daily lives, according to a Minnesota Community Survey of 1,172 adults conducted Sept. 25 to Nov. 6, 2025. Subscribe t...

New: Most Minnesotans support legal cannabis (55%), but majorities across party lines say it's made "no difference" in their daily lives.

One finding: Nearly half of Asian Minnesotans chose "not sure" on legalization, more than 2x the statewide rate.

www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

14.01.2026 17:04 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Klobuchar and Craig top favorability ratings of Minnesota elected officials (fall 2025) A fall 2025 Minnesota Community Survey found that 58% viewed Klobuchar favorably. Nearly 1 in 4 viewed her very favorably. Slightly fewer Minnesotans rated Craig as very favorable, but a large proport...

With Walz dropping out, here's our fall 2025 MN favorability ratings:
🔸Klobuchar, Craig tops at +19 net favorability
🔸Trump underwater at -20 net
🔸Klobuchar's net favorability dropped 9 pts from summer to fall

Guest analysis by @craigstetter.bsky.social

www.lumaris.com/blog/klobuch...

08.01.2026 21:37 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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📊New survey results📊

My look at favorability ratings via @lumarispoll.bsky.social's Minnesota Community Survey:

✅Sen. Klobuchar & Rep. Craig top
✅Lt. Gov. Flanagan & Gov. Walz in the middle
✅Pres. Trump is underwater

Details --> www.lumaris.com/blog/klobuch...

07.01.2026 20:55 👍 3 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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📊New survey results📊

My look at favorability ratings via @lumarispoll.bsky.social's Minnesota Community Survey:

✅Sen. Klobuchar & Rep. Craig top
✅Lt. Gov. Flanagan & Gov. Walz in the middle
✅Pres. Trump is underwater

Details --> www.lumaris.com/blog/klobuch...

07.01.2026 20:55 👍 3 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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🏥Prelim MN Health Dept data show flu hospitalizations spiking & nearing last season's peak, way above 2 years ago. COVID & RSV up a bit too

www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/res...

🚽UMN data show COVID-19 levels in wastewater continuing to rise thru mid Dec

wastewater.uspatial.umn.edu/sars-cov-2/

02.01.2026 12:50 👍 8 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
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🏥Prelim MN Health Dept data show flu hospitalizations spiking & nearing last season's peak, way above 2 years ago. COVID & RSV up a bit too

www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/res...

🚽UMN data show COVID-19 levels in wastewater continuing to rise thru mid Dec

wastewater.uspatial.umn.edu/sars-cov-2/

02.01.2026 12:50 👍 8 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0

Team-by-team highlights:

Wilfs (Vikings): Highest overall favorability
Leipold (Wild): Among lowest unfavorable ratings
Lore & Rodriguez (Timberwolves/Lynx): Strong fan support
McGuire (United FC): Lowest visibility
Pohlads (Twins): Only team with negative ratings among both general public and fans

20.12.2025 13:23 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Only one Minnesota sports owner has negative favorability ratings: the Pohlads.

Meanwhile, the owner with perhaps the lowest unfavorable rating (Wild owner Craig Leipold) just became a minority owner of the Twins.

New from our Minnesota Community Survey:
www.lumaris.com/blog/only-on...

19.12.2025 16:36 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1

🚽This week's U of MN statewide wastewater data shows another 54% increase in COVID levels over past 2 weeks

wastewater.uspatial.umn.edu/sars-cov-2/

🏥MN Health Dept data show hospital admissions due to flu really climbing

www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/res...

💪Stay healthy Minnesota!

19.12.2025 16:51 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

The @lumarispoll.bsky.social poll was just cited on @mprnews.org with @ninamoini.bsky.social

FWIW, The questions on gun control were NOT commissioned by an interested party but included as a public service

What question would you like to see in a survey of MN?

16.12.2025 18:41 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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FYI @governorwalz.mn.gov issued a press release yesterday citing @lumarispoll.bsky.social survey results, showing that 69% of Minnesota's support a ban on the sale of assault weapons

mn.gov/governor/new...

Direct link to the nonpartisan, statewide survey:

www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

16.12.2025 18:35 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

This week's U of MN statewide wastewater data show 58% increase in COVID-19 levels over past two weeks

wastewater.uspatial.umn.edu/sars-cov-2/

MDH prelim data show COVID & especially flu hospitalizations increasing

www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/res... #Minnesota

12.12.2025 21:27 👍 6 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 1
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New MN poll: 69% of Minnesotans support banning assault weapons like the AR-15.

The surprise? Twin Cities suburbs lead at 79%, higher than Minneapolis-St. Paul proper (71%).

Sign up for our newsletter and read the full analysis here: www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

11.12.2025 15:56 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Somali immigrants By tracking and analyzing trends in areas that affect our quality of life, Compass gives everyone in our state a common foundation to act on issues to improve our communities.

According to Census Bureau data via @MNCompass: 68.9% of Somali immigrants in Minnesotan age 16-64 are employed
www.mncompass.org/topics/demog...

This is tied with the employment rate for everyone age 16-64 in Kentucky, and higher than in AR, AL, LA, NM, MI & WV
www.mncompass.org/topics/quali...

04.12.2025 22:54 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0