‘On Thursday, a gauge of expectations for inflation over the next year, known as the one-year break-even inflation rate, jumped to 4.62%. That is the highest level since June 2022, when the annual rate of the consumer-price index peaked at 9.1%.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-key-...
BESPOKE: "Oil is up 34.3% this week, which would be its biggest weekly change since at least 1985."
#OOTT
🚨 BREAKING — Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) officially withdraws his re-election bid, missing the 5pm PT filing deadline. He is the 32nd House Republican not to seek another term.
The open seat improves Democrats’ chances of flipping CA-48. The newly drawn district voted Harris +3.
@therickwilson.bsky.social @thewarningses.bsky.social @housedemocrats.bsky.social if this is not a top Democratic message then the party is politically incompetent.
www.npr.org/2026/03/05/n...
‘Commodities are attempting to break above a long-term downtrend versus global equities. The relative trend versus global bonds has also been stronger over the past few months.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/03/i... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
‘Stronger commodity prices are generally consistent with better performance from value stocks vs growth stocks.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year
I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts)
(All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27)
1/4
I cancelled my ChatGPT plus subscription today.
H/t @epbresearch.bsky.social
Look, I understand some people can’t afford health insurance anymore, but how else were we going to afford the tax cuts for our billionaires, not to mention the huge funding increase for ICE?
Yes, but how else are we going to afford the tax cuts for our country’s billionaires?
Brad Setser says that "China is not dumping US Treasuries". This isn't likely to be nearly as exciting as an article that claims that "China is dumping US Treasuries!", but the math, the data and the reasoning are much better.
www.ft.com/content/9ea5...
1/4
As this WSJ article points out, countries are keeping their exports competitive in the face of US tariffs by increasingly subsidizing them, with the subsidies ultimately being paid for in the form of suppressed consumption.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
‘The Adobe Digital Price Index found that online prices posted their largest monthly increase in a dozen years in January, driven by higher prices for electronics, computers, appliances, furniture and bedding.‘ www.wsj.com/business/pri...
1/5
The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025."
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...
3/4
In other words countries whose trade surpluses are caused by manufacturing subsidies (paid for by households) force their trade partners to absorb negative spillovers in the form of trade deficits that undermine their manufacturing competitiveness.
‘Software margins had grown very wide recently and the endurance of those margins all the way to the financial horizon got priced into the stocks. That was never going to last.’ www.ft.com/content/d5fb... by @robarmstrong.bsky.social
For my fellow policy wonks a look at the supercore. This is not exactly going to provide any relief over at the Fed, Treasury or the White House that looks at this metric. It also paints a portrait around why the public is not going to find much relief in a 2.4% topline or 2.5% core print. #Econ
😳
“.. For every $1 the U.S. collects in taxes and tariffs, it will spend $1.33 this year.”
@wsj.com @scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
What's left? Private Education & Health Services (averaging ~60k/mo) accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025. Strip that out and the private sector was contracting by an average of -30k/mo.
NEW from me:
Data center construction is up 300% since 2022. Imports of Taiwanese electronics are up 670%. Total US computer & software investment has shot up to $1T/yr
American companies are making an unprecedentedly large gamble on the success of AI 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/americas-1...
‘The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when $XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Now I finally understand about the Bitcoin halving.
Peter Attia’s career was ruined by emails far less incriminating than this. Why is this not a bigger deal?
GRIFFIN: “.. most CEOs that I’m friends with, they find it incredibly distasteful. .. Most CEOs just don’t want to find themselves in the business of having to, in some sense, suck up to one administration after another to succeed in running their business.”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/business/ken...
This is a big deal. Ken Griffin is an important guy to the GOP. @carlquintanilla.bsky.social
share.newsbreak.com/h4p03otd?s=i16
Our founders, though deeply flawed, understood that democracy requires an informed citizenry and a government accountable to it people. That’s why the press is the only profession protected by the Constitution. It’s also why autocrats and oligarchs seek to control and destroy it.
