Veer

Might I suggest this plot for tomorrow’s daily feature @akrherz.bsky.social - over six hours of sustained blizzard conditions at PVD and JFK this morning!

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

Love how clean that EWRC was in the NW Caribbean!

Your wish is my command - the super ensemble viewer is back online! Just go to the "superensemble" tab for any storm that has it.

The static images are back for most plots - I'll add the interactive viewer and a few other plots in the coming days.

polarwx.com/tropical/?st...

Pretty neat radar evolution w/ #Gabrielle which rapidly intensified into a Cat 4 #hurricane today.

An eyewall replacement cycle occurred, but instead of the typical cycle of the inner replacing the outer eyewall, it appears the two eyewalls merged & did not interrupt continued intensification.

To complement excellent graphics like the one Brian provided (see quoted post), I crafted a storm-following animation of Hurricane Katrina (2005) using NOAA's half-hourly, 4-km multi-satellite merged infrared dataset called Merged IR.

#Hurricane #Erin has just become a Category 5 hurricane (140 kt / 917 mb).

Earliest known occurrence of Cat 5 in open Atlantic (outside Caribbean & Gulf).

Rapid Intensification (+75 kt in 24h!)

To illustrate how remarkable this period of #RI has been check out this WV 18 hour animation below ⤵️

Tampa, FL reached 100 degrees today, the first such instance in the station's recorded data thread since 1890.

How did this happen?

On the synoptic scale, an anomalous upper-level ridge traversing the region from east to west: (1/3)

Plot of the western hemisphere showing the filtered Kelvin Wave band (blue solid lines indicate upward vertical motion). Note the wave propagating eastward across from 22 Jul to 29 Jul (following the blue arrow).

GOES-18 Full Disk View Infrared Satellite Image valid 2205 UTC 26 July. Annotated is the bubble is convection being enhanced by the CCKW.

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook for 11am PDT highlighting three areas for development.

Not hard to see what is causing the abrupt uptick in convective activity in the Central & East Pacific. A potent Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave, #CCKW, has been marching eastward, activating the #ITCZ.

This convection may aid #ITCZ breakdown, with 3️⃣ areas being monitored for #TC formation.

It's been a bit since I've done a meteorological deep dive, but the devastating flash #flood in central Texas this July 4th/5th deserve a closer look. #TXwx

Yes remnants of #Barry were involved helping enhance moisture. A remnant MCV from Mexico on 3 July also played a role.

Full evolution below ⤵️

Dear NOAA: Thank You YouTube video by Cole Vaughn

Today was the last day at NOAA for hundreds of employees who took an early retirement offer. Collectively, an estimated 27,000 years of experience left the agency. It goes without saying they will be missed. Their decades of service is commendable & appreciated.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Si-R...

Saw a post from @vortexjeff.bsky.social on The Other Site, and was interested to understand how one would advect such an impressive EML into northwestern Oregon. If I ran HYSPLIT correctly (perhaps a tenuous assumption), it looks like the source region was somewhere in the northern Sierra.

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Contiguous U.S. winter temperature categories. 25% of the Lower 48 is in some shade of red and 15% is in some shade of blue. This is in comparison to the 1991-2020 climate normal period - which is quite a bit warmer than previous periods.

Note from coolwx.com

Very encouraging. What is even happening anymore

That’s the Constitution mate. The literal Constitution

All probationary federal employees at NOAA’s EMC that’s responsible for keeping all US weather model systems running have been fired with 1 hours notice. And that includes me and colleagues. We will not go quietly because we care about the NOAA mission to protect the public.

First post in a good bit:

Eyeing the third week of March for a serious ramp up in severe weather across the US. MJO stalls & strengthens in the Maritime Continent without competing forcing in the WHEM beginning mid month and lasting perhaps longer than a week.

@brandonskalniak.bsky.social has been helping me with weather history for a while now. He recently completed his Radar Museum with 5319 entries. Please, have a look!

www.brandoweather.com/radar-museum

The PDF that detailed NOAA’s Radar Next Program was deleted by Executive Order

www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Snow easing but not over. How much more we project:
North of Beltway: 0.5-1.5"
Near Beltway: ~ 2"
South of Betlway: 2-3"
This would bring totals to 1.5 to 4.5" N of Beltway, 5 to 7" near Beltway and 6-11" to south. Yes, a boom for some.
More info at cwg.live

Reminder that if there is a government shutdown, some NOAA websites like NCEI (ncei.noaa.gov, archived weather databases) and PSL (psl.noaa.gov) are likely to be offline — if you rely on them, the next few days are a good time to download data you need.

For the first time in quite a while, December looks to be off to a colder than average start in the eastern United States.

The biggest difference vs. past Decembers? The absence of troughing anchored over the Northeast Pacific & Northwest US, which has been present in almost every recent December.

Worth recapping how remarkable last two weeks have been in the WPAC with #TC activity.

4️⃣ #Typhoons ( #Yinxing, #Toraji, #Usagi, #Man-Yi ) hit the #Philippeans in just *9️⃣* days!!!!

Unprecedented in modern records. 3 of the typhoons were Cat 4 or stronger! The full two week animation is below 👇

I plan to eventually transfer my website from my old OU host to a separate server, but in the meantime, I wrote a detailed blog post about the challenges of forecasting Tropical Storm Sara and what went wrong:

arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/blog/p...

Trends within a subtle steering regime are hard to ignore with #99L. It wasn’t clear how much influence the distant weak TUTT would exert on track, but subtropical ridging is now forecast to build in stronger and faster - which in turn lowers the intensity ceiling.

Super-ensemble plots are now running live for invest 99L.

Confidence is growing in a hurricane which may directly impact Central America. Potential impacts in Florida depend on its track and intensity.

More invest 99L model data on my site: arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/produc...