There was a big spike in the share price after the announcement but that gap has now filled. It’s a pretty thinly traded stock. Still a pretty modest position size for me.
12.03.2026 01:51
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There was a big spike in the share price after the announcement but that gap has now filled. It’s a pretty thinly traded stock. Still a pretty modest position size for me.
If you watch their 2025 analyst day they showed a single chip solution that is coming in 2027 or 2028. They are working with LG Innotec for that effort and I think it will dramatically reduce the cost and increase the margins. Being part of the $NVDA platform is super useful for sales IMO.
I started a thread on them a few weeks ago but have been following for a year or so. Back in January $NVDA selected them as the preferred Lidar vendor for their autonomous driving platform. bsky.app/profile/no-p...
$NVDA shared a video of their CEO Jensen Huang on a long drive through San Francisco using their self-driving platform in a Mercedes.
If it wasn't already obvious $TSLA doesn't have a sustainable competitive advantage in self-driving vehicles I think $NVDA can put an end to any doubt. The major OEM's were never going to license Tesla's technology but they will trust $NVDA's platform to build on. I added $AEVA because of this.
UPDATE on $AEVA. Briefly traded over the 200 day MA this morning. Will we get a breakout today or soon? I think we will. Mostly likely news is needed but the strong price action on modest volume is a good sign. The chart gapped up on the $NVDA news. That gap is now filled solidly. Time to 📈
Very cool to see our Bluebird in flight! $ASTS
Short position in $PCT declined by 1M shares at the end of February 2026. Position is reported as 44.4M shares.
I am a bit surprised to see the short position in $PCT @purecycle.bsky.social decline by about 1M shares.
Farmers and rural voters overwhelmingly voted for Trump. I say “hell no!” To more farm bailouts. They got what they voted for and the only thing I support for them is tiny 🎻’s. They can have as many as they want. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The United States is no longer the "safe haven" market that it historically was. This blows out past correlations and can introduce additional uncertainty. Nobody knows how different markets will react and therefore caution is advised. Having more cash means you have flexibility. No FOMO here.
My guess is that we will revisit the lower BB's at some point. I'm looking to build my cash position and to add back more protection via puts and put spreads. It is impossible to get the timing exactly right so I will likely scale into any positions. The implications of the Iran invasion are big.
A weekly chart of the $SPY showing higher highs and a lower RSI. We traded below the lower Bollinger Band but have recovered so far. Looking at past patterns, it seems likely we will revisit the lower BB.
A few thoughts on $SPY and how we might trade in the next month or two. I miss @northmantrader.bsky.social who retired at the end of 2025. He was great at big picture analysis. I'm doing my best to apply lessons learned. On the weekly chart we saw a nice divergence. Higher highs, lower RSI.
The algos that are responsible for a huge % of the trading love to see people get bearish, buy puts, sell stocks, etc and then they rip the other direction. For the moment, massive deficit spending is what is propping up markets. That spending --> corporate profits. It works until it doesn't.
Daily chart of $AEVA. Highlighting the close above the 50 day MA. Also the very high volume spike from January when the $NVDA relationship was announced.
I have been slowly adding to my position in $AEVA. Their earnings update was solid and it looks like they landed another major OEM. Seems clear to me that Lidar is going to inevitably be included in almost all new vehicles. Lots of other applications too.
A copy of a SpaceX letter to the FCC with CatSE's interpretation of what they REALLY meant.
Someone found this SpaceX FCC filing that was sent today and our favorite Swedish 🐈 provided a handy dandy translation service. $ASTS. Someone is very mad that they are being outplayed in Europe. Seems to me that @ast-science.com is well positions to get an MSS allocation and to dominate Europe.
It’s an open question how many Trump supporters might open their minds to the possibility that perhaps he isn’t doing things in the country’s best interest. 🤔 youtu.be/-wQhY5CMMl4?...
Proposed edits for the Agenda item 1.13 of WRC by $ASTS.
Some $ASTS comments on the World Radio Congress agenda to the FCC. I have not read them yet, just found the filings now.
www.fcc.gov/ecfs/documen...
At first the NTN service may be sold as an add on but eventually it will just be embedded in all plans. Top tier plans will get more data or faster performance but eventually everyone will just expect service everywhere. TV/Movie script writers need to adapt quickly.
The MNO's have access to much more detailed performance data and the $ASTS technical roadmap. They know what is coming and it should mean higher revenues and lower costs. This is super good news for them (and their customers who want better coverage). It also means the TAM is big.
"Telecom executives have told us that certain peripheral tower locations with expiring leases and aged radio access network equipment will be better served by LEO constellations' DTC offerings" via Peter Supino
When you get certain information it pays to understand the implications in advance. $ASTS. The MNO's are figuring out just how much Capex/Opex they can save by tightly integrating NTN services. Once the constellations are complete this is unlikely to be undone. All customers will need coverage.
I just booked some gains from a March 20th short position (synthetic via call spreads) and adjusted my Jan 2027 position. Sizing is modest. There are much better/easier shorts out there but I take some satisfaction earning $ shorting $TSLA.
Daily chart of $TSLA showing a drop below the 200 day MA.
Update on $TSLA, it is now trading below the 200 day MA again. Will have to watch it but the prediction of the death cross is certainly more likely now that it was a few days ago. Seems likely to fall to the $350 level at least. NFA
Overnight trading in $SPY showing a price of $660.70 as of 8:22 PM on Sunday
I did end up adding some April $SPY puts last Friday but not nearly enough! Something is better than nothing but I’m a little bummed I didn’t have more insurance in place. In any case, looks like my earlier prediction of $660 is going to happen.
It would not make sense in urban areas but in suburban or rural areas you deploy USM and then reallocate the freed up spectrum for SCS capacity. No need to spend money on some lower utilization towers. Customers won’t know or care. Certainly for off peak hours you go into standby mode to save power.
According to the CEO of Cohere Technology they are live in production with their USM in Bell Canada. He indicated they would be live with other MNO’s in 2026. I think AT&T will be one of them. USM enables at least 50% in spectral efficiency so add or frees up capacity that can be used for SCS.
Potentially. The devil is in the details and this spectrum might only be used for additional downlink capacity via carrier aggregation (low band to maintain the uplink). Either way, $ASTS tech enables a rethink on spectrum utilization for MNO’s. Saving capex and opex is big profit potential.
$ASTS: Apple was referenced as a “partner” in a job posting two weeks ago and the company took it down. Many people in the SpaceMob saw it but kept a tight lip. Another AST executive posted on LinkedIn the other day and included Apple as a partner then edited his post. For what it’s worth, Google’s partnership with AST was not PRd but highlighted in an 10K a couple months ago. Take it as you see it 🍎
Here is some discussion of that from July of 2025. $ASTS. We knew SOMETHING was up with SiriusXM, and we still don't know the exact details but it is likely to be juicy!
For perspective, SpaceX paid $19B for 50Mhz of S band spectrum hoping to make their D2C constellation viable in the US. Using a similar valuation that 30Mhz could be worth $11.4B. The tech details may make it less valuable but still, huge increase in value vs status quo. Spectrum finds a way! $ASTS
The FCC defines the Wireless Communications Service (WCS) band as follows: 2305–2320 MHz (Lower WCS) 2345–2360 MHz (Upper WCS) 2320–2345 MHz (SDARS — Sirius/XM) Within this, the C and D blocks are: Block Lower Band Upper Band Notes WCS C Block 2305–2310 MHz 2350–2355 MHz Paired 5 MHz ×2 WCS D Block 2310–2315 MHz 2355–2360 MHz Paired 5 MHz ×2 These blocks flank the SDARS band, which sits directly in the middle at 2320–2345 MHz. 🧭 Why the Lease Was Transferred to Sirius XM Although the FCC page does not explicitly describe the lease‑transfer history, the reason is inferable from the band structure and long‑standing FCC proceedings: ✔ 1. Interference Protection for SDARS (Sirius XM) Sirius XM occupies 2320–2345 MHz, directly between the WCS lower and upper bands. To protect satellite radio receivers from harmful adjacent‑band interference, the FCC historically imposed strict power and usage limits on WCS licensees. Transferring leases to Sirius XM allowed: Unified control of spectrum immediately adjacent to SDARS Simplified interference coordination More predictable RF environment for satellite receivers
The logic for AT&T to partner w SiriusXM and $ASTS is clear. They can eliminate the interference risks and cost effectively deploy this spectrum via Bluebird block 3 satellites that cover 1.4 to 2.4Ghz spectrum. This 30 Mhz of S band spectrum is 💰💰💰 but would be expensive to deploy via small cells.
SiriusXM has been transitioning their business to migrate away from satellite delivery to just focus on OTTP programming that is delivered via internet connections. If they can better monetize their satellite spectrum that is a potential windfall to them. Getting more SCS spectrum is 💰.
C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___ AT&T is executing a "grand bargain" in the sky that solves a 20-year regulatory headache. This thread breaks down the playbook, the partners like $ASTS, and the end game for 6G dominance. 🧶🐈⬛
I hate to link to content on Xitter but this is important stuff. $ASTS. The SpaceMob discovered connections to SiriusXM last year (and Apple) in a job posting talking about managing external relationships. The job posting was then updated to remove those 2 companies.
x.com/catse___apex...