@kellyhereid
Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's. 📍Oakland, CA Website: hereidk.strikingly.com
Tonight, I was looking at water.noaa.gov to see where the US is flooding. My 11-year old pointed to the ongoing major flooding in North Dakota, and I said "Oh, that's Devils Lake. It's always flooding there." They asked "Why?" and a rabbit hole yawned before me.
Meredith Fowlie, our utility wildfire risk maven, discusses how new CA legislation that produces barriers to creating a municipal utility might shift the burden of wildfire prevention and damages.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/03/09/t...
Screenshot of USGS event page, M6.0 373km under Naples
Not seeing eqsky get nearly riled up enough yet about this absolute weirdo. 373km depth??? earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/... ⚒️
State level rating is more actuaries than me. But strong building codes cut catastrophe portion of annual loss - esp hurricane. Cat is varying part of total premium.
In high hazard areas, something like putting on @ibhs.org FORTIFIED roof (and telling insurer) is a powerful tool to get best rates.
Glad you found it too! But yeah stronger for HU (and I'd bet EQ, although that doesn't touch homeowners as much due to low take up)
My favorite insurance paper that not nearly enough people have read - FL building code cutting wind claims by 72(???!!?)%
Written w @climate-done.bsky.social, great example of an *incredibly valuable* NCAR collaboration.
www.jstor.org/stable/26449...
Signal likely muddied by hail risk, where building code has much smaller impact on losses, and states like TX where year built has little relationship to code improvements (no statewide building code, just a patchwork of locals)
IBHS Rating the States report
Excellent and thoughtful paper, as usual.
One point of clarification re: home age. Insurers typically aren't using as proxy for maintenance, but rather building code.
Bet you'd see stronger association looking at year built in hurricane states with strong statewide codes ibhs.org/public-polic...
When @andrewmoseman.bsky.social got behind the wheel of the new Chevy Bolt, all he could think was, “Who would want to kill this car?”
Read more about his test drive and what it says about the future of affordable EVs:
heatmap.news/electric-veh...
Sorry probably need to click to expand and see all 4
Excited to share a new @nber.org paper w/Blonz/Hossain/Mulder/Weill where we show credit scores impact homeowners insurance premiums as much as disaster risk.
Here’s what happened in WA when they banned credit scoring:
The “public facing not assured” seems to stem from this kerfuffle: www.theinsurer.com/ti/news/excl...
Wonder if these are what they meant by 4 populated areas? Because it… misses a few
More than 30 years ago, I began teaching courses on data analysis in the earth sciences. 20 years ago, I started thinking about writing textbooks. Now there are six textbooks and many different course formats for you. Here are the options for you:
mres.uni-potsdam.de/2025/10/15/o...
Got an answer here, guess it means yet another day trying to figure out fresh data holes
At 9 months along there is truly no other word for it
Here’s the word from Levi Cowan at JTWC: “The new policy outlined by the notice took effect as of March 5th, and the notice was then removed from JTWC’s web pages.”
Thanks for investigating, good idea to pitch this to TS list.
Oh weather's not nice enough to bike?
She just biked to the hospital while catastrophically pregnant and brought home a newborn, in the grossest time of year in Minnesota. Excuses not valid.
Cycling flex cc @davidho.bsky.social
Interestingly, end of last week the Joint Typhoon warning center had a service advisory up saying that they were cutting forecast frequency in half in most of the Southern Hemisphere.
Today advisory is gone. Does anyone know if that means they rescinded the change or just took down the notice??
This was the first book of hers that I read, so don't have a basis for comparison, but found this book lovely and thoughtful.
Meanwhile as a renter I choose an energy provider that is 100% renewable - but am pinned to PG&E rates + an extra load, so I get to pay for those gas peakers anyway.
Hope y'all are enjoying your solar panels.
This story has everything, a focus on desal that led to overlooking other water sources, a city manager making $400K/yr saying don’t panic, a former water system manager saying residents should absolutely panic, and magical thinking: “The last hope to avert disaster was a 20- to 30-inch rainfall.”
Flowers for Algernon, Daniel Keyes
Flowers for Algernon, Daniel Keyes
Jumped from the last read that was basically a fluffed up blog post to some proper literature.
Some aspects are a product of their time (although the manic pixie dream girl still shows up nowadays).
But the rest... woof. Heartbreaking. Beautiful.
17/
Actually super useful for getting a gut feel for how different regions make energy.
Lots of oil? Good chance it's an island
Hydro? Think topography, dominates several grids in South America
Mostly geothermal? Instant Iceland tell
Growth of N(t) ( by model modality, 2019–2025, on a log scale. Text-only variants remain the largest class, but multimodal models exhibit the steepest relative growth, signaling imminent attribution challenges in image+text domains.
If GenAI, such as a large language model, is used in a cyberattack or disinformation campaigns, can it be specifically identified? Can we tell which one was it?
The alarming answer is: probably not (and it's likely to get worse). 🧪
Link: journals.plos.org/complexsyste...
And now the paper describing the open source software used to create DCENT-I is published too.
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Its kinda dark that international women's day is the day that is 23/24 the length of a typical day
Screenshot of Griddle, aka Wordle for energy mix
If that's how you pub quiz, that means you've definitely seen @jmelville.science's Griddle, right??
(Wordle for electricity grid energy mix)
jmelville.science/griddle/