Miles Kahler

This really is old-style gunboat diplomacy: impounding customs receipts was a familiar imperial strategy with formally "sovereign" governments.

As Europe Tries to Diversify Trade, a Major Deal With South America Stumbles

Just when the EU needed to present a united front to the Trump administration, it falters. If the EU cannot cohere around a trade agreement, how will it respond effectively to US tariff threats?
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u...

Let's see: substitute US for China, and the subtitle could be a quote from Mark Carney's Davos speech yesterday.

Hubris may precede a fall, as it does in tragedies, but hubris may be unnecessary. Spain in 17th c. or the USSR (and perhaps Athens) fall because of internal failure or disarray. That may be the lesson needed by the US at this moment. We cannot rely on others for an essential course correction.

Excellent analysis of the Carney speech.

Davos LIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum YouTube video by Associated Press

This speech is truly remarkable: Havel's greengrocer and its implications for the fragility of the rule-based international order, the performance of sovereignty, sovereignty as hierarchy, economic integration as coercion and subordination, avoiding the dominance of both hegemons and hyperscalers...

Charter of new Board of Peace is IO as country club: Membership by Trump's invitation; initiation fee of $1 billion in first year (or out after three);Trump can veto Board's decisions and appoint or remove members. Mar-a-Lago goes global, as a competitor to the UN.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The reality of trying to make US manufacturing great again The fortunes of furniture makers in North Carolina and Foshan in China show the impact of Trump’s tariff regime

Why US manufacturing will not revive despite (or because of) Trump's tariffs. And why your next sofa or table will cost more. The view from North Carolina and China.

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Just think of it as a branch of archeology.

The text about Norway and the Nobel Peace Prize should have been the clincher, but one "expert" or another will undoubtedly begin with "Trump has a point . . . "

Congratulations, Frieder!

Donald Trump names Tony Blair, Jared Kushner and Marc Rowan to advise Gaza ‘Board of Peace’ US president will chair executive body that he says will guide reconstruction of war-ravaged enclave

A moment of your time from Greenland: if you can explain this convoluted governance mess for Gaza, Part 2, you may be in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize.
www.ft.com/content/e98e...

US senators introduce bill to stop military from occupying Nato territories Legislation would prevent American forces from using congressional funds to annex Greenland

I am sure this will be normalized by one "expert" or another, but could you imagine this headline even two years ago?
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

How a Man Convicted of Running a Latin American Narco State Landed a Pardon Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández’s unusual network of Trump allies and MAGA influencers helped deliver an extraordinary pardon to him.

Of all the appalling pardons by Trump (and there are many), this must be the worst. A convicted narcotrafficking president leaves prison, thanks to Stone and Gaetz (with Silicon Valley investors in the background). Policy under Trump 2: have friends who can reach Trump.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Trump Renames Institute of Peace for Himself

Thought this was a joke post from The Onion, but no, once-respected institute, now reaches new low in our emerging crony-capitalist state.Campaign for a Nobel Peace Prize continues. (If you think there is peace in the eastern DRC, read the latest from Amnesty or HRW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...

‘This is existential’: Donald Trump’s tariffs drive US car sector into turmoil Michigan’s ‘Big Three’ carmakers forecast a combined $7bn tariff-related hit to earnings in 2025

So much for restoring US manufacturing. US automobile sector contends with tariffs, which are "a mess on top of a mess." No surprise that small and medium enterprises are suffering the most.
on.ft.com/4nLta4u

Argentine assets hit by fresh selling amid worries over US bailout Peso, stocks and bonds all fall as investors fret over lack of details from Washington on rescue plan

US bailout of Argentina in question. Is a US promise to do "whatever it takes" credible from this administration? Especially with anger of US soybean interests over a bailout of one of its competitors. If additional IMF resources are required, will Europe and Japan go along?
on.ft.com/3KPh2kn

Check out the MASSIVE crowd in DC marching to the White House to protest the federal takeover of the city!

#FreeDC!

The We Are All DC march to protest against Trump admin’s takeover of DC is currently heading toward the White House:

Via @benjalvarez1.bsky.social

We ought to think about #AI as a #humanrights issue.

💬 Sep. 16, I will be back in Toronto to give the Frank W. Woods lecture at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.

Come join us! Registration and info here👇
munkschool.utoronto.ca/event/we-dat...

#bigdata #humanrights #wethedata

Please join us for the launch of our E&IA Roundtable: 'Global Governance in Hard Times.'

Presentations: Faude+Karlsrud; @yoramhaftel.bsky.social & @stephofmann.bsky.social; @ninareiners.bsky.social; Julia Morse; @mstephen.bsky.social.

Comments: @hbirk.bsky.social; @tsommerer.bsky.social.

Details:

Prosecutors Fail to Secure Indictment Against Man Who Threw Sandwich at Federal Agent

Yet another way that citizens can push back against a presidential power grab in their city: serve on grand juries and refuse to indict.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/u...

India struggles to escape the Trump tariff trap Narendra Modi’s push for the country to become a low-cost goods exporter has made it vulnerable

My Trade Secrets today. India's east Asian-style goods export model has taken a bit of a battering from Trump, and it's not entirely clear what will replace it.

Also, the UK brouhaha over age verification for online porn shows that deregulation is tougher than it looks.

www.ft.com/content/13dc...

UN plastics treaty talks fail after US joins petrostates in blocking action Delegates criticise role of Trump administration in siding with Saudi Arabia and other petrochemical producers

Easy to miss, with Alaska and DC news, but the Trump admin has sided with autocratic petrostates to block a treaty on plastic pollution. One delegate described the US position as "more regressive than the Saudis."
www.ft.com/content/f808...

Cat Stevens and the Pet People

Like other major cities, inequality is the core problem: highest per capita income ($78,479) but also a poverty rate above the national average (which is too high). Even so, poverty rate is below many red states (starting with Alabama and continuing through WVA). Stats from Chronicle of Higher Ed.

A reminder from the hellscape described by Trump (my city-state of DC): compared to 50 states, highest percentage of BA degree holders (26.9%); highest (by far) of PhDs (10.4%).

Thanks, Cullen. Look forward to reading your latest WP from @piie.com.

I have left the @cfr.org Studies program to join the Global Order and Institutions Program @carnegieendowment.org. Look forward to working with Stewart Patrick and @carnegieendowment.org colleagues on the urgent agenda of sustaining multilateral cooperation and reforming global institutions.

Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban