Kevin Carmichael

Carmichael: There's upside for Canada in Trump's attack on the Fed - The Logic The U.S. president's penchant for self-harm offers opportunity for stable democracies—if their leaders don't waste it

Canadians ought to be observing Trump's attacks on the Fed with a mix of dismay and relief. Imagine if we had two strongman leaders attempting to fire central bankers at the same time? My latest:

Carmichael: Mark Carney has to play Trump like a chess master, not a hockey player settling scores - The Logic Carney must deal with a U.S. president who plays by the rules of professional wrestling, where narrative arcs decide outcomes.

My latest is on the danger of binary thinking.

Carmichael: Canada's young workers are getting crushed - The Logic Youth and long-term unemployment are at a near 30-year peak. Those scars won’t heal easily.

There are two stories unfolding in Canada's hiring numbers. One is resilience. There other, sacrifice. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/carm...

Carmichael: We don’t have time for a climate finance slowdown - The Logic The politics have gotten more complicated, but the threat of climate change still makes everything else seem small.

Climate change is being crowded out of the conversation. We might need to learn to cope with more than one existential threat at a time. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/carm...

Carmichael: Carney can’t fix Canada without mending ties with Alberta - The Logic The country’s stagnant productivity might confound economists and decision-makers because they spend too little time thinking about the dynamics of power

The Logic went west last week to talk about the productivity crisis. In Calgary, the conversation was dominated by politics. It wasn't a waste. Productivity and politics are inextricably linked. My latest:

Carmichael: What Mark Carney must do next - The Logic The hard times have already begun. There isn’t a moment to waste

Canada's economic immune system is weak. That means the next few years will be hard. But there's a newfound resolve to get in shape and that's kind of exciting. My latest:

Carmichael: Mark Carney’s win shows anti-elitism has its limits - The Logic With Canada under threat, most of its voters rushed to back the candidate with the flashiest CV.

Expertise mounts a comeback. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/carm...

Kevin Carmichael: Canada is alone. It has only itself to blame - The Logic This country has long gotten a free ride. The rest of the world has noticed.

I've been receiving angry emails about this one. Please read beyond the headline.

Canada can’t fix its productivity crisis without fixing housing first - The Logic The construction industry accounts for about seven per cent of Canada’s GDP. It might also be the country’s least productive industry.

Why solving the Canadian economy's productivity crisis starts with home building. My latest: thelogic.co/news/special...

Carmichael: The ‘Liberation Day’ fallout has seized the Bank of Canada’s attention - The Logic If the U.S. dollar stops being the world’s reserve currency, the ripples will be felt everywhere

What's scarier than tariffs? My latest:

Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 2.75% - The Logic Trump’s aggressive trade moves could cause recession, Macklem warns

My take on the latest from the Bank of Canada:

Carmichael: The Trump shock marks the end of global finance as we’ve known it - The Logic The world will adjust, but the commercial relationships that have created much of the world’s wealth are over.

Emergency column on the Great Repricing. Enjoy the relief rallies, but don't get drunk on them. The adjustment is going to hurt, pretty sure.

Carmichael: Economics can’t explain Trump. Professional wrestling can - The Logic Like the WWE, the U.S. president is a master of directing the power of the crowd.

How to get over in the age of Trump. My latest:

Carmichael: Carney and Poilievre's tax-cut promises are a major election distraction - The Logic The cost of living is an issue, but it's no longer a crisis. Canadians must remain focused on the real emergency.

The stakes have rarely been higher. The promises in Canada's election campaign, so far, don't meet the moment. My latest:

Carmichael: The looming election plunges Canada’s businesses deeper into uncertainty - The Logic

It's the uncertainty, stupid. My latest:

Carmichael: In the battle of Carney and Poilievre, there's more at stake than who wins - The Logic Canadian society has begun to corrode. Rebuilding trust will be a key part of rebuilding the economy.

In lieu of a unity government, there's a way Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre could start work on fixing the economy immediately. My latest:

Carmichael: The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision just got a lot more complicated - The Logic The trade war could throw a wrench into the central bank’s plans

No Canadian central bank governor has had to make more consequential decisions than Tiff Macklem. They keep getting harder. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/kevi...

Perhaps the most shocking event of the past 24 hours.

Carmichael: To survive Trump, Canada needs to rebuild its east-west ties - The Logic U.S. trade agreements have made Canada richer, but less reliant on ourselves. That needs to change.

Life is about to get a little difficult for Canada. Maybe that's just what we needed. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/kevi...

Carmichael: Canada's premiers are ready to splash the cash to survive a trade war - The Logic Nobody’s in the mood for austerity this budget season.

Canada's governments are putting their bazookas on the table. Hope those things come with guidance systems. My latest:

Carmichael: We have a chance to be bold on housing. Let’s get creative - The Logic Maybe it’s time to rethink the economic model that’s created one of Canada’s biggest problems.

On Canada's housing crisis. My latest:

Carmichael: There’s no easy way to fight inflation in a trade war - The Logic Don’t expect the Bank of Canada or the country’s CEOs to ride to the rescue, either

The Bank of Canada won't be coming to the rescue this time. My latest:

Carmichael: Trump defies the laws of economics because he doesn’t believe in them - The Logic In early January, when Donald Trump was building his chaos machine like a child with a Meccano set, Canadian venture investor Chris Neumann noticed the then president-elect was choosing some unusual p...

In professional wrestling, "jobbers" are there to make the stars look good. But sometimes, when they perform their roles exceptionally well, the stars lose control of the narrative and the audience sides with the jobbers. My latest:

Carmichael: Canada still faces a crisis. We can’t afford to waste it - The Logic Our prospects depend on our leaders abandoning business as usual

How to win a trade war. My latest:

The Bank of Canada cuts its key interest rate as tariffs loom - The Logic Quarter-point cut comes with a warning that a trade war would test the ‘resilience of Canada’s economy’

My take on the latest from the Bank of Canada: thelogic.co/news/bank-of...

Carmichael: The art of trade war - The Logic Canada will need both fighters and philosophers to survive the next four years.

Some say the right response to Trump tariffs would be dollar-for-dollar retaliation. Some say the right response would be to resist the urge to retaliate and focus on resiliency. It needn't be a binary choice. My latest:

Carmichael: Canada doesn’t need more trade deals—it needs more traders - The Logic The best way to fight Trump’s trade policy is to focus on the home front.

Trade diversification is surfacing as a response to Trump tariffs. Good idea. Lots of opportunity, even in this strange new world. Keep one thing in mind, though: Canada has lots of trade deals, but not many traders. My latest:

Carmichael: Overspending could worsen the shock of Trump’s tariffs - The Logic Our instinct is to cushion the blow. Our focus needs to be on resilience.

Trump's trade policy represents an external shock like COVID-19 and the great financial crisis. That doesn't mean those playbooks would work this time, however. My latest:

Carmichael: A hundred and one minutes with Pierre Poilievre - The Logic What we can learn from the Conservative leader’s expansive conversation with Jordan Peterson.

Pierre Poilievre could be good for the economy. Too bad he's such an unreliable narrator. My latest: thelogic.co/comment/kevi...

Carmichael: Goodbye to Trudeaunomics and its failures - The Logic The Justin Trudeau era is a cautionary tale for those who believe it’s simple to turn ideas into change.

Justin Trudeau's legacy will be seen by most as a failure. Why? Good ideas aren't enough. My latest: