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Ali Ahmadi

@aliahmadi

Geoeconomics and Sanctions Policy. Consultant. Executive Fellow Geneva Centre for Security Policy

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Latest posts by Ali Ahmadi @aliahmadi

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Hey CENTCOM you’ve been planning for this for decades, you wanna dust off that OPLAN for Hormuz now buddy?

CENTCOM:

11.03.2026 00:21 πŸ‘ 526 πŸ” 67 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 6

We've been through this with the Red Sea crisis. There arent enough military ships, It requires putting them way too close to Iran's shores, and insurance likely still wont cover.

11.03.2026 07:06 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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When WSJ editorial has to write a headline like this ...

10.03.2026 23:51 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Ukraine Ministry of Defence is pissed.

Its only gotten 600 Patriot missiles over 4 yrs and the US used 800 in the first 3 days of the Iran war.

10.03.2026 22:49 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iranian Missile

"In memory of the victims of Epstein Island"

10.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Hes not even PM yet and hes mastered the art of the TACO. Quick study, this one.

10.03.2026 21:05 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Long-time buddies Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols were out for a pleasant van drive in Oklahoma when, all of a sudden, their lives would change.

10.03.2026 13:19 πŸ‘ 9161 πŸ” 1848 πŸ’¬ 172 πŸ“Œ 39

Oh no, is "comedy" about to become "legal" on here too?

09.03.2026 20:49 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I'm starting to think commodities investors might be gigantic morons. Just a hunch.

09.03.2026 20:02 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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War-barnacle Lindsey Graham narrates to @wsj.com's Josh Dawsey how he affixed himself to Trump, manipulated him into attacking Iran: www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Apparently wants to bomb Lebanon next:

09.03.2026 13:05 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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I like to look back on feted FP experts takes and smile as they still get fawned on for their insights at Aspen

09.03.2026 11:24 πŸ‘ 384 πŸ” 48 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 2

This is a prominent UAE businessman at the forefront of normalizing with Israel

09.03.2026 13:04 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iran believes the GCC country that helped the US strike the desalination plant was Bahrain.

The Israelis, despite being allied with UAE, are claiming that the UAE did it. Dubai gets 90% of its water from desalination plants that would be very easy for Iran to hit.

#FakeFriends

08.03.2026 17:47 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

All the regime change stuff failed. No pro-Israel riots, no Kurdish militias. So all they can do now is just war crime after war crime.

08.03.2026 08:41 πŸ‘ 70 πŸ” 25 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think Iran’s attacks on the UAE and KSA are defensible - unless you’re someone who complained about Nordstream getting blown up but are now defending Iran, in which case lol decide on some standards man

07.03.2026 18:15 πŸ‘ 54 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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International law is not dead The Iran war cannot lead the left to submit to an anarchic world order

My Weekend Essay for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social: why the 'left-realist' critique of int’l law is a form of disenchantment that obscures more about political reality than it illuminates.

A short critique of Perry Anderson via EP Thompson, Carr, Weber.

www.newstatesman.com/world/middle...

07.03.2026 19:11 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

Shutting an oil well isn’t like turning off a faucet.

It’s a huge engineering risk, difficult to reverse β€” and an indicator the Kuwaitis don’t see choke points improving anytime soon.

07.03.2026 16:22 πŸ‘ 3272 πŸ” 982 πŸ’¬ 73 πŸ“Œ 27

O the answer to this question, from the limited responses that I've got here and elsewhere, is basically "we havent been paying attention and we just assume the Europeans are doing the right thing rather than just endorsing whatever Trump does".

06.03.2026 17:21 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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friend sent this over from the other place and unfortunately I did laugh

03.03.2026 11:28 πŸ‘ 2808 πŸ” 492 πŸ’¬ 47 πŸ“Œ 40

Firing short range missiles is easier than medium range missiles.

Though I imagine the UAE is exaggerating how many missiles Iran fired at it so to make its interception rate look better.

03.03.2026 11:34 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Colbert already got cancelled and hes just manufacturing consent for the love of the game.

03.03.2026 10:15 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This potentially gives folks like Polanski a potent talking point:

"Farage will drag us into reckless wars in the Middle East. He'll say he wont during the campaign like Trump did but then he will".

03.03.2026 09:56 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Menab, a small city of 70,000 people in southern Iran, comes together for the funeral of the 168 schoolgirls - age 7 to 14 - who were killed by a US-Israeli missile strike on the opening day of the war.

03.03.2026 09:09 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
03.03.2026 05:57 πŸ‘ 1279 πŸ” 241 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Honest question to all the American liberals on here:

When you watch Europe grovel to Trump and enable everything hes donig, do you still see them as "people who share your values" or are they basically RFK-type collaborators at this point?

02.03.2026 22:47 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1

Israelis announce plans to strike Evin Prison in Iran again.

They struck it during the 12 Day War in June killing over 200. One strike hit a wing of the prison killing prisoners. Another struck an admin building, killing administrators, guards, visiting families of prisoners and social workers.

02.03.2026 22:42 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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These fucking people. The BBC is claiming my neighborhood was bombed because the Ministry of Intelligence was two blocks from my house. NO, IT FUCKING WASNT. There is nothing around my house like that. Its just apartments and businesses and one courthouse. Intelligence Ministry is way further north.

02.03.2026 19:13 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I dont think this is about intelligence. They clearly know they are civilians. Its about pressuring the people. Their rationalizations seem to be that they are hitting a police station or something. But these tiny police stations that they are hitting with massive missiles.

02.03.2026 18:16 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

FYI I'm extremely concerned but I'm fine myself. I was in Istanbul when it started. I'm getting pics online and through family.

02.03.2026 18:13 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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My neighborhood and my parents' neighborhood in Tehran

Both were hit with massive bombs meant to take out apartment blocks. Neither has any military installation of any kind.

02.03.2026 18:12 πŸ‘ 92 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1