New joint article in Small Wars & Insurgencies:
“Kaliningrad: the strategic challenge for NATO’s eastern flank and German–Polish perspectives.” www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
What comes next with #Iran? What consequences will this war have for the participants, for countries in the region, and how might it affect #Russia ’s invasion of #Ukraine, #China ’s interests, and international security more broadly?
@anurlan.bsky.social for ridl.io
ridl.io/war-in-iran-...
My comments for #YLE
We discussed Russia’s view on Greenland, Russia–EU and Russia- U.S. relations in the Arctic & Eurasia, and Moscow’s policies in the South Caucasus & Central Asia.
Thanks to Heikki Heiskanen and @yle.naamio.social
Segments: 6:25 & 18:27
areena.yle.fi/1-76900913
For Russia, the dispute over Greenland is both gratifying and unsettling. As Trump clashes with allies, Moscow sees NATO divisions but also new uncertainties in the Arctic. @anurlan.bsky.social explains for Riddle Russia how the Kremlin is reading the moment.
platformraam.nl/uit-andere-m...
War in Ukraine collapse of Russia - EU ties and lingering hope of cutting some kind of deal with USA have left Moscow with limited room to maneuver. Those realities have kept RU officials from taking too harsh a public line toward US plans for #Greenland
@anurlan.bsky.social
ridl.io/how-moscow-s...
My new at Riddle Russia: Russia’s pivot to the eastern route of the INSTC shows a shift in Eurasian logistics and geopolitical balancing between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan
ridl.io/russia-s-piv...
Truly honoured to have my book Reassessing Russia’s Security Policy reviewed @foreignpolicy.com by Edward Lucas, a legendary voice on Soviet and Russian security affairs. #Russia #SecurityPolicy
7 Books That Reveal How Kremlin Decision-Makers Think foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/17/r...
I shared comments with #BBC on Moscow’s icebreaker capabilities in the #Arctic: The main is: Sanctions have significantly weakened its ability to build new vessels.
www.bbc.com/russian/arti...
My book Reassessing Russia’s Security Policy now out in paperback
If you’re interested in a grounded analysis without exaggerated claims about “information warfare” or “propaganda”, this book explains When, why, andhow Moscow could intervene militarily in CIS states www.routledge.com/Reassessing-...
Can US seemingly increasing involvement in South Caucasus drastically affect Russian interests in the region?
Can Moscow resist this shift and how it might attempt to do so?
@anurlan.bsky.social
ridl.io/trump-s-rout...
My new joint paper examines the role of civil-military cooperation in the war in Ukraine.
Te theoretical framework of the paper is based on asymmetry in strategic interaction theory.
Grateful to Martijn Lak & Michael Coffey @josms.bsky.social , and the reviewers
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
How far can the confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan go? What are Russia's interests in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's interests in Russia? What is the possible outcome of this escalation?
Russia Talk with Nurlan Aliyev
youtu.be/JjJR8XK6Vqk?...
Why are Russia and #Azerbaijan seemingly go all out against each other?
What does it tell us about reginal dynamics?
What might happen next?
@anurlan.bsky.social for ridl.io
ridl.io/what-is-happ...
It would seem one project we can completely bury is Russia's North-South transport corridor to Iran
ridl.io/russia-s-vit...
There seems to be a bit of confusion about Russian security guarantees to Iran. Here is an explainer
Russia is not in fact obliged to come to the rescue
ridl.io/iran-russia-...
The map was designed by Nurlan Aliyev and Oleh Skrynyk
the Geoeconomics and Geopolitics of the International North-South Transport Corridor: Connecting or Competing with the Belt and Road Initiative?
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
My latest on #Russia - #China #Arctic relations, from #LNG projects to NSR development, and military cooperation, amid geopolitical shifts and environmental concerns.
ridl.io/russia-china...
Russia’s Arctic: what’s next?
"Drawing on Russia’s Arctic strategies, projects, and approaches, this piece explores potential futures for a region central to Moscow’s ambitions."
ridl.io/russia-s-arc...
How has 2022 invasion of UA altered RU economic plans in #Arctic, and can China or India fill the gap left by departing Western companies? From military buildup to shipbuilding aspirations, what paths might RU pursue—and what would that mean for Arctic?
@anurlan.bsky.social
ridl.io/russia-s-arc...
My book , Reassessing Russia's Security Policy, will be soon available for mass reading :)
A paperback edition of the Book will be available for purchase soon, just 35 pounds
Available for pre-order since April 15, 2025
@tandfhss
www.routledge.com/Reassessing-...
The review on my book, Reassessing #Russia 's security policy, has been recently published by the Defense & Security Analysis.
Many thanks to a reviewer, Professor Zdeněk Kříž, Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Thomas-Durell Young and Reviews Editor Zsolt Lazar
@tandfhss
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
6/ The sanctions imposed after the 2014 Ukraine invasion have further reinforced the Kremlin’s reluctance to rely too heavily on a single partner.
Would a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations really shift Moscow’s Arctic strategy? Unlikely, but worth watching.
5/ If U.S.-Russia relations were to normalize, Moscow might welcome renewed cooperation with the West. However, since the 2000s, Russia has been trying to strategically balance its ties with other Great powers.
4/ While U.S.-Russia tensions have driven Moscow and Beijing closer in the Arctic since the mid of 2010s, their sharing geoeconomic interests now remain crucial for both.
3/ After all, Washington sees economic projects, especially limiting China’s influences in the Arctic, as one of the key priorities. Most probably, Moscow wants to manuver between Washington & Beijing.
But does this mean Moscow would turn against Beijing if talks with Washington progress?
2/ The Kremlin likely placed Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's man, at the forefront because he can make a potential deal with Moscow more appealing to the Trump administration as Moscow views it .
Is Russia ready to pivot away from #China for the U.S. in the #Arctic in the results of #RussiaUS talks?
I bet it will not happen as Washington wants to see it
I' m going to explain it here why 🧵1/
www.rbc.ru/politics/18/...
Trump has spoken to Putin about ending war in Ukraine
nypost.com/2025/02/08/u...
Despite Western sanctions, Russia-Iranian trade and economic relations reportedlycontinue to develop in areas like nuclear and thermal energy, mechanical engineering, transportation, oil and natural gas, and agriculture. However
@anurlan.bsky.social
ridl.io/iran-russia-...
Had a great discussion on Russia's security policy—its key trends, potential threats to the EU and NATO, and the increasing pressure on CIS countries after the war in Ukraine.
Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTJz...
Podcast: talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...
