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Dow

@dow

Fiat enthusiast

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08.05.2023
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Latest posts by Dow @dow

It's at least in part bc bond traders have a negatively asymmetric payoff structure and equity traders have the opposite, so when bond traders reach for risk it's potentially much more dangerous.

12.03.2026 13:55 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

High oil prices are now good
War is now good
Big deficits are now good
Protecting sexual predators is now good
Presidential corruption and political insider trading is now good

Starting to think Trump voters got played.

12.03.2026 13:32 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Honestly for me a better overall experience than the US Open

12.03.2026 12:38 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We went three days last week and went back last night to watch Sinner v Fonseca. Perfect evening, low 70s. Got hotter today. Was heating up as I finished early round of golf before heading home (whence the pic). Will be hotter out there tomorrow. Lovely venue.

12.03.2026 00:18 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Indian Wells

11.03.2026 20:49 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iran War Update:

09.03.2026 17:23 πŸ‘ 54 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

They also did this in Afghanistan during Trumpβ€˜s first term and Trump didn’t say shit

06.03.2026 19:22 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1
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I am being judged for not taking her to the beach already

06.03.2026 19:18 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
06.03.2026 15:29 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

No shortage of tools in the Trump administration

06.03.2026 14:38 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I thought they were sending the escorts to the straits of Hormuz

04.03.2026 16:48 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0
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Big day for Jannik Sinner yesterday, he got to meet my wife.

Scenes from Indian Wells:

04.03.2026 16:41 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
The Iran Deal and the Madman Theory
Why pulling out severely damages American interests

Nicholas Grossman
Oct 6, 2017

https://medium.com/arc-digital/withdrawing-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-trumps-worst-decision-so-far-a88356e3ff2c

The Iran Deal and the Madman Theory Why pulling out severely damages American interests Nicholas Grossman Oct 6, 2017 https://medium.com/arc-digital/withdrawing-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-trumps-worst-decision-so-far-a88356e3ff2c

If the United States ends up withdrawing, it sets the Middle East on a path to two possible futures:
A nuclear Iran.
War.
Both are much worse than the status quo.

From: https://medium.com/arc-digital/withdrawing-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-trumps-worst-decision-so-far-a88356e3ff2c

If the United States ends up withdrawing, it sets the Middle East on a path to two possible futures: A nuclear Iran. War. Both are much worse than the status quo. From: https://medium.com/arc-digital/withdrawing-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-trumps-worst-decision-so-far-a88356e3ff2c

"If the US ends up withdrawing [from the Iran nuclear deal], it sets the Middle East on a path to two possible futures:

1) A nuclear Iran.

2) War.

Both are much worse than the status quo."

Oct 2017, warning against breaking JCPOA, saying no "better deal" would arise.

I was hardly the only one.

28.02.2026 16:25 πŸ‘ 179 πŸ” 51 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Fed's Miran: Four quarter-point cuts still warranted this year to ensure the economy is supported in the event of an alien invasion.

26.02.2026 20:03 πŸ‘ 40 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1

Fed's Miran: Four quarter-point cuts still warranted this year to support economy in case of an alien invasion.

26.02.2026 20:01 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Indian Wells starts next week. 🎾

26.02.2026 16:58 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Make no mistake: she’s threatening to hurt Punch unless she gets fed immediately. Ruthless.

26.02.2026 14:35 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

TFW you're old arguments for cutting rates didn't work out and you're desperate for new ones.

26.02.2026 14:05 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations.

LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly.

Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

26.02.2026 13:44 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 1

Glad you honed in on this one.

26.02.2026 13:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Sea lion pics.

25.02.2026 23:38 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

IOW, if PCE is up and CPI is down, you can’t argue inflation is down. At best you can it's mixed.

And it’s misleading to tout inflation as a policy victory for Trump as Sara was doingβ€”esp when declining components can’t be tied to policy and rising components can be tied to immigration and tariffs

25.02.2026 15:09 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

IOW, if PCE is up and CPI is down, you can’t argue inflation is down. At best you can it's mixed.

And it’s misleading to tout inflation as a policy victory for Trump as Sara was doingβ€”esp when declining components can’t be tied to policy and rising components can be tied to immigration and tariffs

25.02.2026 15:09 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sara: inflation is lower

Carl: inflation went from 2.5 to 2.6 to 2.8 and now 3

Sara: yes, but inflation is lower

24.02.2026 15:12 πŸ‘ 41 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 1
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Punch is safe now

20.02.2026 16:05 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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20.02.2026 13:32 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Bitcoin devasement

19.02.2026 14:34 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Bitcoin update:

19.02.2026 14:21 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

"I don't want anything to happen to him while my mother's alive"

19.02.2026 13:48 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2

Too good

19.02.2026 13:52 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0