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Elias Koch

@eliaskoch

Doctoral Candidate in Political Science @dynamics.bsky.social (HU Berlin/Hertie School) & Research Associate @hertieschool.bsky.social | Party Competition, Public Opinion & Quantitative Methods | https://www.elias-koch.com

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Latest posts by Elias Koch @eliaskoch

Very happy to see this out in @bjpols.bsky.social

The last paper from my dissertation has found a home

10.03.2026 10:39 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Picture of LSE campus

Picture of LSE campus

Iโ€™m hiring for a full-time one-year Research Assistant (โ€œpre-docโ€) position

Come work at LSE doing research on energy markets and environmental economics. Great opportunity to build research skills ahead of applying to PhD programmes

Deadline March 27th, apply here: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

09.03.2026 12:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 11 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Ganz herzlichen Glรผckwunsch, Kira!!๐ŸŽˆ๐ŸŽ‰

10.03.2026 14:07 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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2 two-year postdocs on childrenโ€™s political socialization at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

๐Ÿ”ฅ POSTDOC POSITIONS ON CHILDREN'S POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION ๐Ÿ”ฅ

Wanna understand young people's beliefs about political leadership, politics, and power? Then this is your chance! I'm looking for two 2-year postdocs to join my ERC-funded research project @au.dk
international.au.dk/about/profil...

10.03.2026 08:50 ๐Ÿ‘ 62 ๐Ÿ” 55 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Join us tomorrow for this exciting talk by @ankuepfer.bsky.social in the MZES Social Science Data Lab!

Details and Zoom link โฌ‡๏ธ

10.03.2026 09:19 ๐Ÿ‘ 11 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Building on my General Election Prediction App, I thought it might be fun to build an app that allows you to look at UK constituencies in a bunch of cool ways. So this app doesn't turn polls into seats. It looks at seats as they are.

livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/Constituency...

Quick thread 1/n

07.03.2026 16:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 87 ๐Ÿ” 31 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Who produces hate speech? And how does that matter for content moderation?

We show that across different countries and platforms, a relatively small share of users are responsible for a very large share of hate - overall, 5% write 83-100% of hateful content.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

06.03.2026 13:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 50 ๐Ÿ” 20 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 4

This will be the 3rd edition. If you study pol. behaviour and work on #CEE, this is the right place to present your research. Dates: June 25-26. Discussants include @simonhix.bsky.social & @eliasdinas.bsky.social. Highlight: roundtable on dem. erosion with H. Kriesi, M. Svolik & N. Wunsch.

05.03.2026 15:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 23 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Very happy to share that our paper "Political socialization and immigrants' support for progressive politics: the case of green parties" with @antvalentim.bsky.social is now published in @psrm.bsky.social!

Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Short summary in ๐Ÿงตbelow:

(1/5)

05.03.2026 16:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 51 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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The Data Science Lab presents Inside Data Journalism, a spring talk series featuring leading practitioners who share practical insights into their work and the evolving field of data journalism.

More โ„น๏ธ๐Ÿ‘‰ www.hertie-school.org/en/datascien...

04.03.2026 13:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 3 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Am Sonntag ist Landtagswahl in Baden-Wรผrttemberg. Was sagt das Zweistimme.org Modell vorher? โฌ‡๏ธ

02.03.2026 10:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 18 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
An image of the schedule with speaker images. You can find the full schedule on tada.cool.

An image of the schedule with speaker images. You can find the full schedule on tada.cool.

๐Ÿšจ TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! ๐Ÿšจ

We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs.

Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us!

More info & signup: tada.cool

27.02.2026 14:47 ๐Ÿ‘ 36 ๐Ÿ” 20 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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New working paper!

I examine whether exposure to local unemployment during adolescence shapes immigration attitudes in adulthood, focusing on the long-term imprint of early economic insecurity

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

27.02.2026 14:12 ๐Ÿ‘ 65 ๐Ÿ” 22 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿšจ New WP w/ @leonardocarella.bsky.social on OSF

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

We usually think that social identities precede preferences

We show the reverse is also true: people update their social identities to match their immigration preferences

Focus: class identity in ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง + Christian identity in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น

23.02.2026 10:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 128 ๐Ÿ” 56 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 6
Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Reference groups and electoral behavior

Very happy to see our new article โ€œReference groups and electoral behaviorโ€ (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published!

Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.

24.02.2026 08:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 42 ๐Ÿ” 15 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Why does mainstream accommodation of far-right and Eurosceptic parties often electorally backfire? In my 3rd dissertation paper, just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social, I argue that voters specifically punish internally divided parties for accommodation: doi.org/10.1080/0140...
1/13 ๐Ÿงต

20.02.2026 07:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 65 ๐Ÿ” 21 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โณ Nicht vergessen: Noch bis zum 28.2. sind Bewerbungen - und Vorschlรคge - fรผr unseren #Dissertationspreis 2026 mรถglich!

#Promotion #PhDone #Postdoc #Politikwissenschaft #PoWi

17.02.2026 10:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 7 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

Such a fascinating paper by @chanret.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa & Patrick Leslie ๐Ÿ‘
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

16.02.2026 18:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 9 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Attitude Manipulation and Voting Intentions - Political Behavior A large body of research documents the substantial effects of persuasive communication on political attitudes. However, opinion manipulation often represents merely an intermediate goal in a greater e...

Now in print (and open access):

What happens when voters learn their party disagrees with them?

I ran a pre-registered experiment with a representative sample of ~3,000 German voters to find out.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

๐Ÿงต

14.02.2026 11:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 29 ๐Ÿ” 11 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: โ€œIdiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choiceโ€. The core of the book is making the argument that citizensโ€™ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)

13.02.2026 14:42 ๐Ÿ‘ 45 ๐Ÿ” 23 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Auch auf diesem Wege nochmal ganz herzliche Glรผckwรผnsche ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ

13.02.2026 15:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities - Giovanni Capoccia, 2026 The article lays the foundations of a research agenda on the conditions favoring short-term success against emerging illiberal challengesโ€”necessary for democrat...

New article and special issue!
Just out in Comparative Political Studies: โ€œCountering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies: Information, Legacies, Temporalities", the intro to a special issue on countering illiberalism in liberal democracies.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Thread ๐Ÿงต1/7

12.02.2026 22:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 70 ๐Ÿ” 35 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy - Kristian Frederiksen, Robb Willer, Michael Bang Petersen, 2026 Abundant prior research has analyzed the mass publicโ€™s role in democratic backsliding. Comparatively little research has studied democratic restoration, the reh...

Great to see "The Way Back After Backsliding: Public Opinion and the Restoration of Democracy" with @robbwiller.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

01.02.2026 09:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 36 ๐Ÿ” 17 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Looking for RAs based in Berlin/Brandenburg. Please share! ๐Ÿ™

09.02.2026 16:08 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐ŸšจNew publication! Thrilled to finally see this paper out in @psrm.bsky.social ๐ŸŽ‰

๐Ÿ“ŠI study how gender shapes coalition preferences among politicians. Turns out mayors prefer forming governments with women-led parties, perceiving them as better communicators and more competent governors.

06.02.2026 09:12 ๐Ÿ‘ 68 ๐Ÿ” 30 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain

Leonardo Carella

Abstract
This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, โ€œThe effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experimentโ€, PSRM, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979โ€“2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) non-random missing data, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) compound treatment issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders votersโ€™ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of โ€˜nullโ€™ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the countryโ€™s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.

Do open lists increase turnout? Probably not, but they increase rates of voter error: New evidence from Spain Leonardo Carella Abstract This article challenges the claim that open-list systems are beneficial for electoral participation, by reassessing and extending the analysis in a notable empirical paper that advances this argument. The paper (Carlos Sanz, โ€œThe effect of electoral systems on voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experimentโ€, PSRM, 2017) leverages a population-based discontinuity in Spanish municipal elections (1979โ€“2011), where towns with fewer than 250 residents employ open lists whereas larger towns employ closed lists. Through a series of statistical tests and the inspection of alternative data sources, I show that the positive effect of open lists on turnout estimated in the paper is dubious, for two reasons: (1) non-random missing data, due to inconsistencies in how non-valid votes were recorded above and below the threshold, and (2) compound treatment issues, due to changes in list-length requirements at the threshold. I then proceed to show that, rather than improving turnout, the more complex open-list ballot actually hinders votersโ€™ ability to express their preferences, by increasing the incidence of voter errors relative to closed lists (reflected in higher rates of โ€˜nullโ€™ voting). To support a causal interpretation of this relationship, I present evidence from the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, and show that a similar pattern obtains in Spanish general elections, where open and closed lists are used concurrently for the election of the countryโ€™s bicameral parliament. I conclude by discussing the implications of the analysis for implementing population-based regression discontinuities and evaluating electoral system effects.

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social.

I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

05.02.2026 11:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 65 ๐Ÿ” 23 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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@chflachsland.bsky.social and I are looking for an RA -- please share widely!

03.02.2026 19:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

BIG congrats Lisa, well deserved! ๐ŸŽ‰

02.02.2026 16:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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partycoloR is now on CRAN! Started as a simple idea 6 years ago, now it's a full-featured package. Extract party colors and logos from Wikipedia with one line of code. It's already powering ParlGov Dashboard.

install.packages("partycoloR")

28.01.2026 08:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 99 ๐Ÿ” 20 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Interested in an academic career in political science? Do you want to work in a vibrant department with friendly colleagues? Interested in climate governance or EU studies? Do to live close to nature, but also enjoy a vibrant cultural scene? Appreciate a good work-life balance?

30.01.2026 07:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 15 ๐Ÿ” 26 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1