The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.26%. clefed.org/IE
11.03.2026 19:16
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The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.26%. clefed.org/IE
Median #CPI rose 0.2% in February and 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. See our latest median #CPI and trimmed mean #CPI updates: clefed.org/CPI
“Use of Artificial Intelligence at the time of Survey.”
Just under half of small employer businesses surveyed through mid-November 2025 reported using artificial intelligence, according to the Federal Reserve Banks’ Small Business Credit Survey. A majority of those reported increased productivity because of AI. https://clefed.org/4cT6k8v
Our #CPI indicator updates tomorrow. The Cleveland Fed’s #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year CPI #inflation of 2.41% in February. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV
As of March 6, 2026, the median federal funds rate across seven policy rules and three economic forecasts falls from 3.94 percent in 2026:Q1 to 3.78 percent in 2028:Q1. https://clefed.org/4cxZ6a2
Independence and accountability to Congress are critical to maintain global confidence in the Fed’s commitment to 2 percent inflation, says #President Hammack in USMPF speech. Read her remarks, https://clefed.org/4bxJRfd
Monetary policy “is in a good position” says #President Hammack. If inflation falls and there’s improvement in the labor market, “policy should be on hold for quite some time.” Read her remarks: https://clefed.org/4bxJRfd
#PresidentHammack: Bringing inflation back to 2%, maintaining a strong job market, and supporting a stable financial system are important ways the Fed helps ensure Americans benefit from the dollar’s global status. Read her remarks at the #USMPF https://clefed.org/4bxJRfd
Our president Beth Hammack discussed her outlook for #InterestRates and her view on #inflation in a feature by @colbyLsmith for @nytimes. Thank you for highlighting the our dedication to studying the economy & the factors that impact her policy decisions: https://bit.ly/3NkvzGr
Data says that PCE inflation for core goods and core services ex housing rises in January, even after seasonal adjustments, compared to November and December, but housing prices don't follow this pattern. See the report: https://clefed.org/4b8WYD4
Why should you care about inflation? Learn about possible consequences of inflation, whether expected or unexpected, on economic decisions and transactions: https://clefed.org/4roWRdg
What happens behind our vault doors? 🏦 @nbc4i came behind the scenes and highlighted the dedication of our cash function to keep our financial system stable. See the full story: https://bit.ly/4scwwPN
“College Degrees & the Labor Market: Long-Run Trends & Recent Challenges for Young Graduates”
The US labor market has shifted—young college graduates no longer find jobs significantly faster than high school graduates. Why? Our next Fed Talk answers this question and shares key findings from Cleveland Fed research. Join us on 3/20: https://clefed.org/4l6hwAO
On balance, contacts reported that business activity in the Fourth District increased modestly in recent weeks, with continued modest growth expected in the months ahead. #BeigeBook clefed.org/3ih7pZx
Applications are open for presenters for our Economic Scholars Program! Apply and submit your proposal by March 11th to be evaluated for acceptance to the conference: https://clefed.org/esp #ESP2026
The first report based on the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey shows small business performance generally held steady year over year. However, business owners were feeling less optimistic about their future revenue and employment growth. https://clefed.org/4cT6k8v
Research shows the bottom third of US renters by income lost more than 25% of their non-housing purchasing power from 2019-2023; not because they earned less, but because of rent inflation. See the data: https://clefed.org/4l3rWB2
Apply to be a discussant, a student role that reviews proposals, provide comments and suggestions to the author and delivers remarks to help the audience understand the work. Deadline to apply is March 11th. Learn more: https://clefed.org/esp #ESP2026
ICYMI: The video, audio, and transcript from our reshoring manufacturing Fed Talk are all now available. Watch, listen, or read the full discussion now: https://clefed.org/4t0VnHx
“Dollars and Cents: Real Hourly Wage Growth across the Lower Half of the Wage Distribution”
Our latest research shows that looking at real wage growth in terms of dollars and cents, instead of percentage growth, tells a different story. They break down these findings with data from early 2020 through mid-2025: https://clefed.org/4tF9xP2
Meet Kristin Hamblin, our shared services senior manager.⚙️ Learn more about Kristin’s responsibilities, what she finds rewarding, whom she admires, and more: https://bit.ly/4aOE1pk #DayInTheLife
“Economic Scholars Program”
Apply to be a discussant, a student role that reviews proposals, provide comments and suggestions to the author and delivers remarks to help the audience understand the work. Deadline to apply is March 11th. Learn more: https://clefed.org/esp #ESP2026
The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE #inflation rate was 0.2% in December and 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Latest update: http://clefed.org/PCE
The Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) total business conditions diffusion index increased by 5 points to 20, while the total expected conditions diffusion index increased by 15 points to 29. Results calculated from the 2.5–2.12 survey. https://clefed.org/SORCE
Monthly #PCE inflation data will be released tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year PCE #inflation of 2.60% for January. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV
“Dollars and Cents: Real Hourly Wage Growth across the Lower Half of the Wage Distribution”
From early 2020 through mid-2025, workers at the 10th percentile saw real wages grow 9.7%, while workers at the 90th percentile saw real wages grow 4.5%. However, looking at this growth in dollar terms tells a different story. See the data: https://clefed.org/4tF9xP2
When you expect higher tariffs, you are more likely to buy durable goods (cars, appliances, etc.) sooner because you are trying to beat future price increases, according to new Cleveland Fed research. See the paper: https://clefed.org/4rcho4T
Data shows that Pennsylvania imports more than it exports. In 2024, its imports totaled $127.3 billion, while its exports totaled $53.5 billion. See the research: https://clefed.org/3ZKWIoG
What do CEOs think inflation will be? According to the Survey of Firms’ #Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), CEOs expect CPI inflation will be 3.1% over the next 12 months. According to SoFIE results, this estimate has ranged between 3-4% since Jan 2024. See: clefed.org/SoFIE
Our Education and Learning Center is closed today. We will be open again tomorrow during our normal hours, plan your visit: clefed.org/visit
